Looking at the polls, we have a really polarized electorate.
But states like Virginia and Ohio still haven't abandoned President Obama, and may deliver him the election despite a popular vote defeat.
Gallup shows the President down by 3. Rasmussen shows the President down by 4. But despite that, he is still either tied or in the lead in both states according to the polling averages.
What this tells me is that there is significant support from Romney in the South. I saw a poll today that Romney was close to 60% in Arkansas. Bush never did that well. I would expect Romney to run up significantly better margins than McCain in the Deep South, and especially the Great Plains. I even see him doing significantly better in the Northeast in states like Connecticut. But these are all states that are a given on Election Day.
I just don't see the movement in the swing states that Romney should see if he is up +3 in the popular vote. So either he's not up in the popular vote, or there is some run-padding in some already safe GOP states. We shall see.
= new reply since forum marked as read
