PPP: Barack Obama now leads 49-48 in our national tracking. 3 point gain since he was down by 2 on M

[smorkingapple]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-up-1-in-national-tracking.html

Obama's favorability and approval both up net 3 points over the last 48 hours, Romney favorability down 3:

With 2 nights of post-debate polling factored in, Obama's cut Romney's lead with independents from 9 points to 2:

Obama's up 54/42 with women, 91/6 with African Americans, 58/37 with Hispanics, and 58/38 with young voters nationally:

Romney's up 56/42 with men, 58/39 with whites, and 55/43 with seniors in our national tracking:

Last week Obama had 3 straight good nights after debate, then things kind of reverted back. We'll see if this one has a more lasting effect

[courseofhistory]

1. Great News! n/t

[Maximumnegro]

2. They're catching up to the better pollsters

Finally.

It's 2012. There's no excuse for omitting cell phones. Like Nielson getting ratings based on people w/ radios.

[geek tragedy]

3. Could be mere noise, but it's welcome noise. nt

[IrishMidget]

4. Wow

Look at that Romney momentum go!

[Maximumnegro]

5. MITTMENTUUUM!!!!

[primaryblue]

6. If nothing else, better poll results for Obama

means the media won't be able to amplify Team Romney's hype about having all the momentum in the final two weeks.

[Bleacher Creature]

7. 58/37 with Hispanics seems low. NT

[ncav53]

8. That's what I was thinking

[aaaaaa5a]

10. With smaller sub-groups within a poll there is a greater margin of error.

This is why the polling for hispanics and African Americans is frequently off. In the Survey USA poll of Ohio (O+3) they had Romney winning 22% of the black vote.


What happens is, say you have a poll of 100 people. In a group this size, maybe only 3 of them might be hispanic. If you happen to get one person who likes Romney..... BANG..... you have hispanics giving 33% of their vote to the GOP.


You have to be very careful when pulling out minority data from any poll.

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. Looks like Romney threw $70 million at an insoluble problem

Results: negative.