Will there be a "Contested" Democratic Convention?

[CajunBlazer]

There is confusion about what the term “contested convention” means.

It is a possibility that neither candidate will win enough pledged delegates before the Democratic convention to win the nomination outright. That is because there are a large number of super delegates. In fact, if it were not not for the super delegates, with only two candidates in the race, a contested convention would be mathematically impossible. Either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would lock down the nomination before the convention.

Here the math:

There are a total of 4046 pledged delegates

Number needed to the win most pledged delegates before the convention = 2023 (half of 4046 +1)

But there are 719 super delegates

That raises the number of total delegates to 4765 (4053 + 483)

Number needed to win the most to total delegates before the convention = 2383 (half of 4053 rounded up)

Rest of article here: Will there be a "Contested" Democratic Convention?

[brooklynite]

1. A "contested convention" assumes that both campaigns will compete for Superdelegates.....

...after voting is over. This further assumes that the Superdelegates committed to Clinton will be willing to change their allegiance.

Sanders is welcome to try; I see no evidence that he'll be successful.

[Stallion]

5. Yeah I'm sure all those "Democratic Corporate Whores We've Been Electing" Are Feeling the Bern

he has zero chance to flip the Super delegates

[CincyDem]

2. If this hinges on the Superdelegates, it falls into the category of "No Contest".

If one were, for the sake of argument, envision the super delegates as a "51st State"...HRC has been campaigning in that state for 20+. She's been working this group, sharing favors, creating alliances, funding campaigns, etc. etc. etc.

It's a primary Bernie can never hope to win.

So we're done.

I love me some Bernie, but we done. And, so we avoid any confusion, I am committed to vote for whoever is the nominee of the Democratic Party. Guaranteed.

[Buzz Clik]

9. +1

[CorkySt.Clair]

3. Depends

DU's self appointed expert on everything says yes.

Reality says no.

[basselope]

4. If the super delegates make the choice it is "contested" by definition.

[morningfog]

10. That's why I say it is a question of semantics. Others say it is only "contested" if the pledged

delegates are released after an unsuccessful first round vote.

[basselope]

16. I don't really see the question.

If the outcome CAN change (no matter how small the possibility), it is "contested". After one ballot it may no longer be contested, but they don't vote the moment they walk in the room.

[CajunBlazer]

17. Do you really think that....

...if Hillary enters the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates, that the Sanders' campaign is going to be able to talk enough (more than a majority) of the super delegates into overturning the will of the popular vote and pledged delegate count and give the election to Sanders?

Keep in mind that such a reversal of the popular vote and pledged delegate count by the super delegates has never happen in the past. Also keep in mind that Sanders has been, until recently, and independent who has run against Democrats in Vermont and who has over the years criticized the Democratic Party as much as the Republicans. Not to mention the threats to some of the super delegates that have been made by some over zealous supporters.

So do you have any doubts that, if Hillary wins a majority of the pledged delegates, she win the nomination on the first ballot?

If you have any doubts what so ever, please explain the basis for those doubts.

PS: Just saying it is theoretically possible is less than weak. Lots of things are theoretically possible, but are so improbable they are dismissed out of hand.

[basselope]

18. Doubts and beliefs don't matter, we are talking about definitions.

There are circumstances under which Sanders could go in with less pledged delegates and still win. IF Sanders wins all of the remaining contests, but by 55% instead of 56%, they could easily make the argument that momentum has shifted enough to justify the super delegates flip.

If he overtakes her in popular vote, he could make the same argument even if he hasn't overtaken her in pledged delegates.

He could also overtake her in pledged delegates. Most polls have been drastically wrong, so it is very possible she loses NY next week, which throws the entire race into a tizzy.

But, none of that matters. We are talking about definition of "contested" convention.

If no one has reached the pledged delegate number and both candidates are still "in", then it is contested until the first ballot is done.

[NCTraveler]

6. The only thing that will be contested....

Will be the placement of speakers before Clinton is announced as the nominee.

[Buzz Clik]

12. .. and which state gets to announce casting the votes that put her over the top.

[NCTraveler]

14. +1 nt.

[morningfog]

7. I think whether it is "contested" is a matter of semantics.

Neither candidate will have 2,383 through pledged delegates alone (assuming neither drop out between now and the last day of voting, June 14).

If neither drop out between June 14 and the Convention, July 23, then the first vote will decide the nominee and it will turn on how the super delegates break. It is assumed that most will go with the pledged delegate winner to give them the nomination. That is likely, but not assured.

In this sense, the convention would be "contested."

Although, it would also be over on the first round of voting. In that sense it would not be "contested."

[geek tragedy]

8. It depends if Sanders wants a speaking slot or to sit on the floor with the rest of the Vermont

delegation.

[HooptieWagon]

11. Neither candidate will have 2383 Pledged Delegates at the convention.

Which gives us two possibilities.
First, and most probable, enough Super Delegates vote for one of the candidates to put them over 2383.
Other, that enough Super Delegates vote uncommitted or similar, that neither candidate reaches 2383 on the first ballot. This releases the Pledged Delegates from their pledge, and opens up the convention to nominations from the floor. At that point there is a contested convention. Resulting candidate could be damn near anyone.

[DemocracyDirect]

13. It depends how many people are outside the convention hall.

It could be contested by a lot of protestors.

[NurseJackie]

15. Interesting choice of words. "Protestors" instead of "Supporters"....

Thank you ... I've often thought that myself.

Note to Jury: The above statements represent my opinion. No DU rules or terms of service have been violated. It is not against the rules to have an opinion that differs from the Alerter.