The 269-269 scenario doesn't take into account the possibility

[flowomo]

of the "faithless elector." In that (unlikely) 269-269 scenario, a single elector could throw the election to one candidate or the other by simply voting contrary to the outcome in his/her state. It has happened numerous times. Apparently, 24 states have laws to stop this. But I don't know about the other 26.

How likely is it that, in a tie, at least one elector would decide to be a "historic" figure and decide the election all by him(her)self?

Anyway, just as hurricanes and earthquakes are god's way of teaching us geography, so presidential elections are his/her/its/their way of teaching us civics.

Lots more here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector

[courseofhistory]

1. 269-269 isn't gonna happen! It'll be 331 for O n/t

[flowomo]

2. Whatever your prediction is,

it never hurts to know the ins and outs of the system. We can vote, and we can argue -- but we can also learn.

[Tx4obama]

8. Obama: 333

[Coyotl]

12. I'm going to see your 333 and raise you a couple of states

I'm still at 379!

[hrmjustin]

15. Great map, but what about puting GA and MT as blue too.

[Coyotl]

20. Do join in the prognostication

***** Official Pre-Debate Electoral College Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251162857

What's your forecast for the 2012 presidential election? Make your own electoral map:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

[davidpdx]

22. I agree with you on the map except for two: Indiana and Arizona

Indiana there is an outside chance Obama could win. The turnout in Indiana in 2008 was pretty high and I think most people were shocked it went for Obama. If turnout is high again, that would be a good sign.

Arizona won't happen. I would bet against Arizona going red this time. I'm not trying to put down or demean any DUers in that state, but I still think it is too conservative to swing. I know what its like to live in a conservative area and it sucks (I grew up in a conservative part of Oregon). Now 4 years from now, that could be a much different story.

In any event, I think 332 will be a more likely outcome.

[hrmjustin]

3. Obama would need to hold all of his electors, and get one vote from Romney's electors.

If a Romney elector does not vote for Romney, but does not vote for Obama then it changes nothing. A tie means Romney wins. Makes you sick.

[flowomo]

4. right but

the simple fact is a 269-269 result DOES NOT NECESSARILY mean the contest goes to the House, as many people assume.

[hrmjustin]

5. True because the electors cast their votes in dec and we would know by then.

The house really could do nothing about it if Obama was able to get an elector to switch to him.

[flowomo]

6. exactly

It isn't likely to happen, but the 269 talk is all about election day results, not electoral college voting -- and it's the EC that matters. I am reminded that Andrew Johnson was certain to be convicted by the Senate, until one guy....

[RomneyLies]

7. Not necessarily

The electoral votes are sealed and they are opened when the results are read in the joint session of Congress.

[hrmjustin]

13. That is right someone could just keep his mouth shut, and ...

... when they open the votes the winner is....

[krawhitham]

9. If Gore could not get a faithless elector Obama won't either

[CreekDog]

10. this system is a joke and at some point it's got to be replaced with something democratic

the idea that this could happen is one hundred kinds of wrong.

[doc03]

11. Isn't this election a big enough pain in the ass without

bringing up all these scenarios where Romney may win by default. All this horse race bullshit is driving me crazy.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

14. +1

[southerncrone]

16. I always told my kids: "Anything can happen on any given day."

But I'm thinking positive just for good measure. 333 is good, but I'm going for 379!
Everybody just keep the faith!

[doc03]

17. This bullshit reminds me of a wall plaque I saw in

Amish country a while back "Most things people worry about never happen". So why speculate about it until it happens, chill out.

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. ROFL

Absolutely goddamn right.

[craigmatic]

19. It'll be one or the other but not a tie. It's just not mathematically likely.

[fujiyama]

21. This is one of the more realistic "tie maps"

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=RDL

I don't see it as very likely to happen. He wins CO, VA, NV, and NH, but loses IA, OH, and WI.

But then again, you never know. Who expected the '00 debacle? I wouldn't worry about it. There's a greater likelihood of losing this outright 268-270.

[davidpdx]

23. A faithless elector

Especially one that was suppose to vote for Romney that voted for Obama would have to go into the witness protection program for the rest of their life. Think of all the loonies who would go after that person.

[gkhouston]

24. The 269-269 scenario is fun speculation for political wonks. It's not gonna happen. n/t