Jon Ralston: Why Romney hasn't surrendered Nevada

[TroyD]

Wed, 10/24/2012

Mitt Romney campaigned in Nevada today for the second consecutive day. The question is: Why?

Any reasonable analysis of the early voting numbers so far shows that the Democratic machine is crushing the Republicans’ Rube Goldberg contraption. In Clark County, the Democrats have a 25,000-voter lead. Even in Washoe County, the Democrats are holding their own.

SNIP


I have been reliably told that Romney’s internals in Nevada show him up a point – but some of those folks are smart enough to give the margin of error to the Democratic machine. But that makes it a race, so they aren’t going anywhere.

(Obama's polls here consistently have shown him up by 5-8 points. Mark Mellman, who consistently showed Harry Reid winning in 2010, is doing those surveys.)

SNIP

Can they mitigate the natural demographic deficits and save the state, if not for Romney, for Sen. Dean Heller, Rep. Joe Heck, Danny Tarkanian and Republicans seeking to control the state Senate? (Heck is considered a favorite by both sides, but the new seat is seen as up for grabs, with Tark seen as barley holding on now as Democrats coalesce. And the state Senate is a true toss-up, with Republicans needing to win four of five seats and now deeply concerned their candidates could be washed away by registration and turnout.)

I think Romney also is playing here because he can – the money is there – and because he needs to, as one wag put it, “show off for his investors,” including Sheldon Adelson. This is about what happens after the election, too, even if Romney becomes president and has lost Nevada. He at least has to give it the old college try.

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More:

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-why-romney-hasnt-surrendered-nevada

[underpants]

1. Because Aidelson (name?) wants to look out over his money working

[SingleSeatBiggerMeat]

2. Ralston Nailed It In The Last Sentence

Even though - of all the swing states - Nevada is the worst for Insipid Willard, he is there (and will waste more time there) because Sheldon, and Steve, and the rest of the crooks tell him to be there.

And he is that gutless to do it.

He is such a cowering asshole.

[Tutonic]

3. That man has an ego. He's got his sights fixed

on Harry Reid. I bet he'd spend his own cash here if required. Sadly Harry holds teh cards in Nevada.

[DCBob]

4. because NV is critical to his best case scenario.

If he gives up on NV he basically gives up the election.

[Maximumnegro]

11. Yep. There you go.

[JiminyJominy]

5. Any New Polls Outa Nevada?

that internal poll snip made me take notice.

Nevada is key to our firewall if Iowa somehow lets us down.

[geek tragedy]

9. Obama has lead in every NV poll released in 2012. McCain's internals showed

him down only 1 in Iowa less than a week before the election.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

14. Actual difference?

What did McCain actually lose by in Iowa?

[geek tragedy]

15. 9%--complete blowout. nt

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

17. Thanks. They're lying to Ralston or their pollsters suck

NT

[Maximumnegro]

13. LOL. Like they wouldn't lie to Ralston

They have been lying this whole time. If Obama was anywhere close to being behind there, he would be there.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

6. Nevada is melting away from Robbinghood

people are starting to see Romney the etch-a-sketch. For the rabid right Romney has come over weak on immigration and for many immigrants Romney is a demon.

[smorkingapple]

7. Conceding any state will kill all R enthusiasm built up in October...

He can't give up any state. WOuld signal he knows he's in trouble.

This is the impact of Citizens United, guys can stay in states longer than they would in the past just because they have the money to for pure optics, not because they think they can win.

[DrToast]

10. Yup...Romney can't concede any state

It would look bad and damage him in other states potentially.

[geek tragedy]

8. Romney's internal pollsters suck if they have him up there.

Seriously.

[RainbowOverTexas]

12. Nate Silver...

has the adj polling avg in Nevada at Obama +1.7 and only at 48.3% support. Why would Romney give up if its that close and Obama is below 50%?

[geek tragedy]

16. Because everyone in NV knows that Obama will over perform the polls

due to superior ground game and failures to capture the Latino vote. Look at the Reid/Angle Senate race.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

19. Undersampling Minorities, especially LV

I bet 75% of the polls are underestimating minority turnout and half of them are undersampling to start with.

A minority candidate is going to break a lot of models.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

18. Because Nevada has "None of the Above"

48% is sometimes as good as 50% out there

[RainbowOverTexas]

21. in 2004 and 2008

the "none of the above" vote was .4% and .65%

[Jennicut]

20. Romney is in Nevada because he has to be.

If Obama takes OH and WI, Romney needs VA, NC, FL, NH, CO, NV, and IA. He would have to make the run on every other swing state. Every other one. Obama needs only one more state with OH and WI. He needs IA or NV. That is all. Romney's electoral map has always been more difficult then Obama's.

[JiminyJominy]

22. I think

this race (Nevada) is closer than some of you guys think.

i think Obama wins it, but its definitely worth it for Romney to put some time and money into it.

his writing is on the wall...he's going to lose Ohio, so now he's gotta start lining up the other states of NV, Iowa, CO, VA, NH, and FL. in every one of those states he's either ahead or within striking distance. in fact, I'll go so far as to say if that by next week at this time he's still up or close in those states, and if Ohio still shows him down by 3-5..he may even start discretely pulling $$$ outta Ohio and reassigning it to those other states. thats not outa the question.

we cannot let up in Nevada. its gonna go down to the wire. and if we lose Nevada, then we absolutely need Iowa. (which is also so close)

[Maximumnegro]

27. The campaign has said they are confident OH

I don't know why any of us would think we know better.

[GranholmFan]

23. Surely Adelson owns some voting machines

[CreekDog]

24. something like 1/3 Mormon

yes.

[MSMITH33156]

25. Romney is there because

he is in deep trouble in the midwest. He is desperately trying to win all the battlegrounds outside the midwest, and then fluke into a win in Ohio, IA or WI, and get out of dodge with the election. I think his hope is he might be able to do something in Iowa. Ohio is too auto dependent, and Republicans never win WI. If he wins all the swing states but OH and WI, he gets 273. That is the miracle path to victory he is looking for. NV is a really hard pull, but I think his campaigning there is an acknowledgement that WI and OH are gone. That gets O to 265, and Romney needs to win every other state, meaning he can't pull out of NV.

[JiminyJominy]

26. Creekdog and MSmith....

absolutely right.

an underated fact is that there is a heavy heavy Morman presence in NV. thats keeping this close there. and Mormans take their votes very seriously and every single one of em will be out voting for their guy Romney.

here is my thought on Ohio and how it relates to Nevada....

i think internally the Romney campaign is VERY VERY close to conceding (internally) that they cannot win Ohio. That means they MUST now start focusing on Nevada (very very winable for Romney), CO (also very very winable for Romney), Iowa (winable, but its going to take a lot for Romney to come back there), VA (winable but its a dogfight), NH (winable but he's got some work to do), and Florida (winable but has to keep at it).

so you will see that those above states are still very winable for Romney but here is the kicker: IF he remains in Ohio...there is absolutely NO WAY he can win every single one of those states. so he's gotta make a decision now...fight a losing battle in Ohio and deprive those other WINABLE states of much needed $$$ and resources, OR admit defeat in that state...and move the fight to those other states and give himself a shot.

if I'm the Romney campaign...if my internal polling + other polling is showing me still behind 4-5 points by middle of next week, i pull out of Ohio and start trying to win those other states. and Nevada is one of em.

[Maximumnegro]

28. The campaign has said they are confident about NV

repeatedly. Why would anyone here think they know better than the campaign? Just because Obama isn't 9pts up like last time (and remember he overperformed the polls which had him at half that) doesn't mean he stands to lose NV. If the Mormons in NV were going to make the difference it would have shown up in the polling a long time ago.

[fujiyama]

29. Bush only won NV by 2.5 points in '04

and won NM by less than a point. The reason I mention NM is because NV leans a bit to the right on NM. Obama killed McCain in both states in '08. He over-performed most polling by a lot of points.

I think the Latino vote makes it almost impossible for Romney in NV. Yes, it's true there are plenty of Mormons, but I think many of them would go for the republican regardless. Obama will very possibly do a bit worse among whites than '08 in NV, but I think CO and even VA are much more likely to go for Romney than NV. He has shown sporadic and occasional leads in both states for a few weeks.