2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating Romney"
Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating RomneyBy Mark Halperin at Time
http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/24/the-latest-view-from-one-prudential-plaza-why-the-obama-campaign-is-still-so-confident-about-beating-romney/
"SNIP..............................................
Heres what senior campaign officials said Tuesday in each of these key areas:
THE COMPOSITION OF THE ELECTORATE:
Jim Messina told reporters on that conference call, We think that people arent getting it always right about who and what this electorates going to be comprised of on Election Day. I think we continue to think its going to be a higher percentage of minorities and young people than some are forecasting.
Added Messina:
The Republicans are anticipating that minority turnout will drop off, but we already know thats not the case, and thats important as you look at some polls here. The electorate has been increasingly and consistently more diverse. Minority voting is going to reach an all-time high this year, projected as high as 28% of all voters in the 12 election. Most new registrants over the past three months are under 30, and nearly allfour in fiveare youth, women, African American or Latino. You know, these are all groups that strongly support the Presidents re-election. Voter registration has increased most among Latinos and African Americans
And a senior official told me this, It seems like the Romney campaign is counting on a big drop off in minority voters and young voters to make their theory of the case work but theres no indication in the historical data or in the early vote data that thats happening or bound to happen. It seems like its been refuted in the polls, right now.
And heres my colloquy with another top Obama adviser:
..............................................SNIP"
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)It was very interesting, and yes, they exude confidence. Should be required listening for those on the ledge.
Democratopia
(552 posts)The GOP with their policies that penalize minorities and their attempts to stop them from votiing.
spike91nz
(180 posts)Someone please tell O to stop using the phrase "if I you elect me". It should always be, "when you elect me". A basic language style that removes the implication of resistance to the idea.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)And watching the debates, I think Romney does too although he seems to have been told by his handlers to use the "when I'm president" formulation. He has to catch himself, however.
I think the more humble servant approach wins more votes than the cocky assurance approach.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The only way Romney wins is by cheating or by some major disastrous news event that gets blamed on the President.
underpants
(182,829 posts)Minorities don't change as a category but "young voters" do
Dalai_1
(1,301 posts)to have to print something this definitive and positive about
President Obama's campaign..
Jim Messina sure gave a structured interview..if he had
said one word that Halperin could have misinterpreted or
translated in a negative way it would have been in print
and on MSNBC in the morning...
Great Post..thank you!