Nevada GOTV Day 4 EV stats

[ffr]

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:40 PM - Edit history (2)

10:30 PM EST 10/24/12 UPDATE:
214,609 Early Votes cast: Dems v Reps & totals

Dems: 55.5%..|..99,415....46.3%
Reps: 44.5%..|..79,697....37.1%
IAPs: ...-......|..35,497....16.5%

Dem lead over Reps: 19,718
In-person early voting is up 30% in 2012 from 2008 <link> ~173,000 v ~143000


6:00 EST 10/24/12
Democrats leading by ~21,000 votes in Early Voting, nearly 3 to 2 ratio over Republican EV.
Jon Ralston Reports

Cannot independently verify, but his numbers have always held up. The Nevada Secretary of State's Web site EV stats link went down last night and hasn't been fixed and the numbers posted in PDF form from this morning under represent Ralston's numbers. Actual ratio from NVSOS this AM, not including IAPs was:

Dems: 56.8%
Reps: 43.2%

[geek tragedy]

1. The Reid+Obama machines have NV locked down.

This is not a toss-up state.

[RedSpartan]

2. Then all he needs is Ohio and it's game over.

And no, I'm not worried about Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. They are blue.

[geek tragedy]

3. WI still makes me a little nervous--WI Republican GOTV machine is their

best in the country (blowback from the Walker recall) and it was razor close in 2004.

[RedSpartan]

4. I'm not buying it.

I don't think Romney has ever led there, and the aggregate of polls has Obama up by 3 or 4 with no narrowing. I think that's the way it will end up.

[geek tragedy]

5. Romney has never lead there, and Obama is the favorite.

But, I'll certainly feel better when it gets called for us.

[MSMITH33156]

6. I am optomistic

Kerry was seen as a northeastern elite, and it didn't play well in the midwest type states (if you consider Pennsylvania that). Look at the close states:

Wisconsin 0.38%
Iowa 0.67%
New Mexico 0.79%
New Hampshire 1.37%
Ohio 2.11%
Pennsylvania 2.50%
Nevada 2.59%
Michigan 3.42%
Minnesota 3.48%
Oregon 4.16%

Kerry won some of these, but he underperformed across the great lakes area (Big 10 country). He won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but much closer than you would expect, and lost Iowa and Ohio. Obama is just a lot more popular in that part of the country. Across the board, he will outperform Kerry in those states, and he has a much better ground game, while Romney's is not as good as Bush's. I think the Midwest will go for Obama, across the board.

[Lakerstan]

7. Independent verification here:

http://redrock.clarkcountynv.gov/voterrequests/evmb/12G_PartyDistSummary.pdf