Gallup LV -Romney 50% Obama 47% /RV -Obama 48% -Romney 47%/Approve 53% -Disapprove 42%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx?ref=logo

This is getting curioser and curioser.

[My Pet Goat]

1. Wow...debate bump or bad day dropping off?

O back into the lead on RV, Approval at 53 means better numbers tomorrow (probably).

[geek tragedy]

4. Bad days dropping off. The 15th and 16th were terrible days for Obama. nt

[My Pet Goat]

10. yep, very well could be, but a 3-day approval number at 53 signals.....

the horse race number is heading up tomorrow (USUALLY).

[geek tragedy]

14. Approval is all adults, including those not registered to vote.

I usually don't pay it any attention. Not sure why Gallup bothers with a poll that includes people who can't and certainly won't vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Because The President Is President Of 100% Of The American People, Even The Ones Who Don't Vote./nt

[DrToast]

23. All three numbers tend to track with each other

If Obama is gaining in approval rating, then he's likely gaining in the other two.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Relying On This Poll Only

Imagine you are a fan of a basketball team that was up by ten points with five minutes left. There's now ninety seconds on the clock, the opposing team has the ball, and they are down by just two.

That's the story of the last week in this poll.

[woolldog]

25. you were right.

good call, sir.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. There Is Much To Like , Given The Pollster

What I like

!) The 53%-42% approve/disapprove. Those are a winner's numbers.
2) The lv/rv gap has narrowed to 4
3) O leads among rvs.
4) O has a lot of momentum in that poll. He has moved up three points in four or five days.

What I don't like

!) We are still behind.

[geek tragedy]

11. Gallup LV screen is crap. What happened last week is that Romney had an epic

day or two in polling, which threw the entire tracker off. Now those days have dropped off, and we're back to Obama ahead in RVs, with LV screen producing Romney's entire lead.

[progressivebydesign]

17. "behind?" In a national poll by pollsters that game the LIkely Voter model?

I don't care. Do you? Or did we start electing President's based on the popular vote???

These totals INCLUDE places like Alabama and Mississippi, which have zero bearing on the race. Focusing on a poll like that is fairly useless, other than the approval numbers, which are interesting.

[mzmolly]

18. The Gallup poll appears to have a flawed LV model. But we're gaining

even in that figure, which is good IMHO.

[geek tragedy]

19. Nate Silver uses their RV figure, not their LV figure. Look for Obama to rise at 538 today. nt

[mzmolly]

32. Seems

that's appropriate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. I Care Because The Gallup Poll Feeds A False Narrative

.

[geek tragedy]

33. Gallup gets more media hits than all other polls combined. nt

[Mr.Turnip]

37. Why not both?

[boingboinh]

2. IMPRESSIVE!

[geek tragedy]

3. Two days ago, I said Obama would make major progress in Gallup after the debate.

Now Obama's ahead in their RV measure with Romney's entire LV lead based on Gallup's gonzo LV screen.

[boingboinh]

7. "Someone is gettin' pregnant tonight!"

Dude, you called it! I remember your other post!
Many here are genuflecting in your presence.

[kansasobama]

5. Good but still off

I am glad they are moving well. 53-42 is a little bit of an overkill, don't you think so...

[Jennicut]

6. While it is good to see Obama make gains in that poll

one has to wonder why he was ever behind 7 points to begin with?
If their LV model is so bad, it is essentially a tie. Which every other poll known to man is showing (except Ramussen of course).

[geek tragedy]

8. The 15th and 16th were terrible polling days for Obama. His RV and LV numbers nose-dived on those

two days. Now he's back in front in RVs.

[NewsCenter28]

16. Awesome numbers

Presidents with 53% approval ratings don't go down to defeat.

[djnicadress]

38. gallup is meaningless

gallup is crap who cares what they say

[progressivebydesign]

12. And we care about a National poll, WHY exactly?

We don't elect on the popular vote. And Likely Voter is a bullshit model, based on Gallup (RW) interpretation of who they think will vote.

White, middle/upper class, woman, in her middle age, who leans conservative.

Very few of us are actually watching the Gallup polls.

[RedSpartan]

15. What was that about Romney momentum?

[prussogirl]

20. New to DU

I still do not know which polls to track, Isn't Gallop right leaning? If anyone can sugget which polls to follow thtat would really help me out.

[dmallind]

31. Cherrypicking is a fool's game for partisans. Stick to the aggregators like 538 or Electoral-vote

Even RCP. Different companies from either different methodologies in screening etc or inherent bias will skew one way or the other. Samples vary and so do weightings for correction. Even a perfect poll has a margin of error and a confidence level.

Sure there are egregious pollers, but we should not throw out everything even they do. Much beter to look at the aggregate of polls on the state level. Electoral-vote.com does a very clear job that is easy to follow and fairly constructed. 538 at NY Times if you want more wonkery.

[prussogirl]

36. Thank you

The information you provided was very informative. Thanks I appreciate it!

[WI_DEM]

22. This is good news. Obama goes from 7 to 3 behind among LV--moving in right direction.

[imgbitepolitic]

24. @Obamamentum

@Obamamentum

[yellowcanine]

26. It appears that Obama's "condescension" has not hurt him then.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

27. Who the fuck are the 53% who approve, but won't vote for him?

Non registered voters? Do they end the survey if you say you aren't registered?

[geek tragedy]

30. 53% includes those not registered to vote. nt

[Johnny2X2X]

29. Great day of polling on Tuesday

There is no way to interpret it other than that he saw a great day in polling after the debate. To move a 7 day average 2 points means great things. To move a 3 day rolling average 5 points on approval rating vs disapproval is even bigger.

We've all been worried about Gallup because it's been a respected poll for so long, love seeing it come back to reality.

[NewJeffCT]

34. since it was 52-45 for Romney

last week in Gallup, will the media now talk about the Obama surge?

[TroyD]

35. Nice to see Romney's Gallup lead cut in half this week

He's still ahead with Likely Voters, but Obama is ahead with Registered Voters.

And as others have commented, it's odd that a President has an Approval Rating of 53% (which usually means Re-election) and yet is not in the lead with Likely Voters.