I hate to say it, but I think whoever wins New York will win the nomination.

[reformist2]

Like it or not, it's the home state of *both* candidates. Winning with the people who know you best says a lot about not only the strength of your candidacy, but about the strength of your character as well. It will be very difficult indeed for the losing candidate to pick up the pieces after a loss in New York, no matter how strong their momentum going in, or how much money their billionaire bankers spend afterward.

After New York, it will be all over except for the coronation.

[northernsouthern]

1. I anti-agree completely

I think who ever wins in California most likely wins, seeing as it is the largest state and it is on my side of the US.

[MFM008]

10. Ca is no WA

not a caucus state to start with.
more diverse than us in WA.
(Damn near everyone at that caucus here was white.)
Cant automatically be swept into Sanders column.

[Tiggeroshii]

19. He won the black vote in Wisconsin by double digits

He was well ahead in the Asian vote on Hawaii. Polls show he is ahead with Hispanic voters by up to 30%. Why don't you take a trip to Los Angeles and see how we're feeling the bern out here and how that stereotyping is going for you?

[Generic Other]

22. I am Asian and I reject the idea that everyone is white in Washington

The I-5 corridor is incredibly diverse. It is also where the bulk of the population lives.

Seattle:
White - 69.5%
Black or African American - 7.9%
Amer. Indian & Alaska Native - 0.8%
Asian - 13.8%
Native Hawaiian & Other Pac. Islander - 0.4%
Other race - 2.4%
Two or more races - 5.1%
Hispanic or Latino ethnicity (of any race): 6.6%
Persons of color: 33.7%
2006-2010 American Community Survey

Foreign born: 17.3%
Population (age 5+) speaking language other than English at home: 21.3%

Tacoma (where I live):
64.9% White (60.5% Non-Hispanic White),
12.2% African American,
8.2% Asian (2.1% Vietnamese, 1.6% Cambodian, 1.3% Korean, 1.3% Filipino, 0.4% Chinese, 0.4% Japanese, 0.2% Indian, 0.2% Laotian, 0.1% Thai),
1.8% Native American,
1.2% Pacific Islander (0.7% Samoan, 0.2% Guamanian, 0.1% Native Hawaiian),
8.1% were from two or more races.
Hispanic or Latino residents of any race were 11.3% of the population (8.1% Mexican, 1.1% Puerto Rican).

on edit:
Adding Federal Way (halfway between Seattle and Tacoma:
61.1% White,
8.7% African American,
0.8% Native American,
17.5% Asian,
3.0% Pacific Islander,
4.2% from other races,
4.5% from two or more races.
Hispanic or Latino of any race were 10.5% of the population.

[Tiggeroshii]

30. My whole asian-american family is also voting for Sanders.

The media myth lives on, though.

[Generic Other]

32. Mine too

My non-Asian relatives too.

[ImaPolitico]

11. It has got to be Hillary

She is the only one out of all candidates running that has the experience.

[northernsouthern]

14. You had me at...

Your single line with no depth.

[Maedhros]

20. I put obvious paid campaign propagandists on ignore.

Nothing personal.

/bye.

[RoccoR5955]

21. Uh huh. Keep believing that

when in actuality, she has LESS experience than Sanders.
Find any unicorns in that fantasy world?

[Buzz cook]

25. The amdinistration of the State Department

Is bigger than some states and some countries. Four years of controlling that is more administrative experience than Sanders has.

Clinton worked for the Rose law firm in Arkansas for about 15 years becoming its first female full partner. That is more legal experience than Sanders.

As both a private individual and a government official Clinton has visited more countries and interacted with more foreign leaders than Sanders has.

Should I go on?

[demwing]

24. What exerience?

Hillary has zero experience

[putitinD]

2. Bernie Sanders 2016

[Jackie Wilson Said]

3. NY is not winner take all, right? Therefore I dont think it will be over at that point.

Anymore over than it is now, in the eyes of Bernie or his supporters, myself included.

I dont want it to be over until it is over, myself.

[1StrongBlackMan]

12. I don't think the Democrats have any remaining ...

"winner takes all", or even "winner takes most" primaries remaining ... therein, contributing to Bernie's math problem.

[reformist2]

18. You're right about the delegate split, but I'm talking about the psychology.

New York isn't normally the most important state anymore, but this year, due to the importance it has in both candidate's biographies - and one candidate's fundraising - it is arguably *the* most important state in the primary schedule.

[TM99]

27. Oh, hell, if we are talking psychology let's talk psychology.

Going into this campaign, Clinton had it locked up. She was inevitable. She had all the money, the connections, the power, the influence, and the DNC in her pocket.

Out of nowhere Sanders not only came from single digits, he has won the last 7 states in this primary.

Let's talk more about the psychology. The prediction was over at Iowa with Sanders only winning his own state. Then it was over at Super Tuesday. Then it was over at mini-Super Tuesday. Then it was certainly over again after Arizona and the western states right?

Nah, it ain't over if he does not win NY. He will walk with a lot of delegates and continue on as he has for the last 5 months.

When every state and every major primary event is THE most important state and the race is still undecided at this point, then none of the states or major primary events are THE most important at all.

[Walk away]

28. Since Hillary is over 200 delegates ahead...

splitting delegates until June means she just keeps winning until the convention. The Super Delegates are not going to ignore a 200 delegate and a 2,000,000 vote advantage. Especially when the loser hasn't been able to get a majority of Democrats in the primary races he has won.

So, it's done. It has been done for a month. Every primary we pass now just makes it more difficult for Bernie to catch up. If Hillary keeps her lead in the polls this week, she would walk away with a 25-30 delegate lead. That would give her a 245-250 lead.

Today Bernie said he would win NYS and go on to win in Pennsylvania. Maybe he is telling the truth. Luckily, we only have to wait a week to see.

[Adrahil]

36. There are no "winner take all" states.

But right now, Sanders needs something close to 58% of the remaining votes to overtake her delegate count. He must start winning big states and winning them big, or there is no plausible path.

[MFM008]

4. they will win all the rest

including California.

[leveymg]

5. It's all been a coronation. But, next comes the rude surprise that upends the punch bowl.

[JanetLovesObama]

6. Well then, welcome Madame President Hillary Rodham Clinton !!

[ImaPolitico]

17. Woo, Hoo...

I'm all in for Hillary. She will definatley be the candidate!

B. Sanders has had it easy by not being vetted more than he has been.

1) Sanders' illigitimate son.
2 Bad handling the V. A.
3) Endorsed by the NRA?
4) conscientious objector during Viet Nam war.
5) Wife Jane and the scandal re: college she was head of.
6) Wife, Jane, interviewed on the Rachel Maddow show lying for her husband re: Hillary.

Grandpa Sanders is not the nice man he claims to be. What happened?

[BillZBubb]

26. Welcome to ignore! Your clueless post has gained your admittance.

[oasis]

29. Actually Bernie was not a conscientious objector although he applied

for c.o. status. Bottom line, he never served in the military.

[malokvale77]

35. Wow, you got all the dirt! nt

[morningfog]

7. I tend to agree. Partly because the calendar.

NY, with its media, gets full attention for over two weeks. No other state votes that day and it is at a critical point in the race. Big delegate count, big name, big diverse population.

I don't think the race will continue through all the states, but the 19th will tell us who the winner will be.

[thesquanderer]

8. I agree about the importance of New York...

but as for "Winning with the people who know you best," Hillary is very well known. Bernie may have been born in NY, but most New Yorkers knew little about him until this campaign. He hasn't lived in NY in a long time, nor been involved in NY politics. Some areas of the state do border Vermont, but most people downstate probably don't even know it.

[1StrongBlackMan]

9. Do the people of one's home state know someone that has been gone ...

for 40+ years?

I know I've been gone from my home town less than 25 years, and I can count the number of people that "know" me, on one hand.

[reformist2]

16. Most people know Bernie is "from" New York. So that ought to help him. If it doesn't...

...that's not good, obviously.

[Dem2]

15. I feel the same way

Psychologically, it will be difficult for either losing campaign to regain momentum after a NY loss. Both candidates are putting it all on the line there and if Hillary loses, it's extremely damaging since she's got a double-digit lead heading in and hasn't had a big win in a while, Bernie will be in big trouble since he needs overwhelming victories from this point forward, losing a big state like NY (where he's got some roots) will be a crushing blow to his candidacy. NY is a big deal, like it or not.

[tabasco]

23. I think so too.

I'm hoping for a Sanders upset.

[Gothmog]

31. New York is a must win for Sanders

Clinton has such a delegate lead that she could afford to lose NY

[RandySF]

33. Yeah, it'll be a steep hill for Bernie.

[brush]

34. I would say you're right. And Sanders is going to an obscure academic conference 4 days before . . .

the most important primary to date, the one that will determine the nomination.

What's up with that?