HUFF POST: Lack of Early Voting Could Spell Doom for Clinton in New York Primary

[BigBearJohn]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/lack-of-early-voting-could-spell-doom-for-clinton-in-new-york-primary_b_9657002.html

Whether it’s a matter of the advanced age of many early voters, Bernie Sanders’ poor name recognition relative to Clinton, or simply that when Clinton voters in a state are particularly enthusiastic about their candidate they tend to vote early, it’s clear from the data (see below) that Clinton leads Sanders in the national delegate count in substantial part because of early voting margins that the Secretary couldn’t match — or even come close to matching — on Election Day.

New York, like eight other states that have held primaries already, allows in-person absentee voting — but, critically, few are making use of it. According to the most recent polling in the state — a poll taken between April 4th and April 7th — only 8 percent of Democrats have already voted. Yet even these figures are suspect, as a poll taken by CBS between March 29th and April 1st showed very different results: at that point, zero percent of New York Democrats had already voted (the actual number being closer to zero than to one percent). Is it possible that hundreds of thousands of Democrats voted absentee between April 1st and April 7th? Sure. Is it likely? No.

One explanation for the lack of early voting in New York — besides the obvious hassle of coming up with and presenting an excuse for an in-person absentee ballot — may be that, in fact, the group of voters most likely to vote early according to the most recent polling, African-Americans, actually, at least from a certain view, feels about the same about the two Democratic candidates.

To be clear, though Sanders is lately doing significantly better among nonwhite voters — for instance, he leads Clinton by 32 points nationally among Latinos — the polling in New York confirms that Clinton is still more popular than Sanders among African-American Democrats. The question is whether Sanders is actually unpopular within the African-American community or is simply slightly less popular than Clinton.

The answer is clearly the latter, as, according to the polling, if Clinton faces Donald Trump she’d win among New York’s African-American population by 76 points.

[7wo7rees]

1. I think it may be true.

Been saying it for weeks now
Don't discount OWS. Working Famlies Party, Unions, ...
I'll stop there, why go on.....

[factfinder_77]

2. Latino vote in NY according to the last 3 polls

NBC/WSJ/Marist
The two are running roughly even among men and Latinos.

Monmouth
The race i basically tied among non hispanic white primary voters, while
Clinton enjoys a large lead among black, hispanic and other voters

Emerson
Hispanics lean Hillarys way 68 - 32

[Fumesucker]

3. Your mimimum wage OP is lonely and could use some company

[senz]

4. The article says Bernie isn't popular with AAs, but that was before his Apollo Theater event.

He, with Nina Turner, Harry Belafonte, and Erica Garner, was very popular with the young AAs who were there that night.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. Michigan Ver. 2.0