David Gergen: I would put the chances at about 53% for Obama, 47% for Romney

[TroyD]

October 23, 2012

Coming off clear, back-to-back victories in the final two debates, President Obama has now shored up his campaign, and -- given what appears to be a superior ground game -- is again an odds-on favorite to win. But Mitt Romney has also accomplished a great deal in these debates and is poised for a possible surprise. Overall, I would put the chances at about 53% for Obama, 47% for Romney.

Obama has proven once more that he is better when behind, in the clutch, looking for a three-point basket. He was too complacent going into the first debate and almost threw away the election. Judging from e-mails and social media, many of his supporters felt he had let them down personally, threatening their ability to get health insurance or other needed benefits. By reasserting himself in the final debates, he restored their faith and energy for the homestretch.

Over the course of the final debates, Obama also cut Romney down to more human size. In their town hall encounter, Obama pummeled him with charges of lying, misleading voters, and pretending to be a moderate.

Monday night, Obama charged repeatedly that Romney had been all over the map on foreign policy. While Romney delivered some effective counterpunches, he no longer looked the way he did in the first debate -- like a man who went into a phone booth and emerged as Superman. By the end of the third night, he looked tired and more like Clark Kent.

More:

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/23/opinion/gergen-who-will-win/index.html

[Summer Hathaway]

1. I would put David Gergen's chances

of ever being recognized as someone whose opinion counts at zero.

[TroyD]

2. I think it's a pretty accurate analysis on the whole

Which is why I posted it.

And it seems on target with what Nate Silver, Intrade and many of us are seeing as well - a close race, but one in which Obama still retains an edge.

Gergen also states that Obama's ground operation may give him the advantage in the last 2 weeks and there's an interesting paragraph where he quotes a Republican operative who acknowledges how much weaker the Romney machine in Ohio is.

[regnaD kciN]

6. Silver has 66.1% to 33.9%...

...which is certainly not "on target" with 53% to 47%. Not even close. (And, while it's a bit hard to read Sam Wang's graph, it looks to me like he has Obama's re-elect odds at somewhere between 75% and 80%. Once again, a pretty huge difference.)

[pnwmom]

7. Even better now: 68.1 to 31.9

[TroyD]

3. 'major Republican figure' in OHIO: Romney field team looks like 'a high school civics class'

I found this paragraph intriguing.

In the pivotal state of Ohio, for example, the Obama campaign has three times as many offices, often captained by experienced young people. By contrast, a major Republican figure in the state, throwing up his hands, told me that the Romney field team looked like a high school civics class. The Romney team heartily disagrees, of course; we'll just have to wait and see.

[regnaD kciN]

4. So, 53% = "odds-on favorite"...?

I'd put the chances of Gergen acting like a pompous blowhard at 100%.

[davidn3600]

5. That's nice. Base the entire country's future on a coin flip

[Jennicut]

8. I don't think there is anything wrong with Gergen's anaylsis.

The national polling is all very close, aside from the crap from Rasmussen and Gallup. Certain state polls have a small Obama lean. Obama won the last 2 debates. Obama has the slight advantage.