Bad News for Romney: Ohio Early Voting Turnout is Up for Obama, Down for GOP

[applegrove]

Bad News for Romney: Ohio Early Voting Turnout is Up for Obama, Down for GOP

By: Jason Easley at Politicus USA

http://www.politicususa.com/bad-news-romney-ohio-early-voting-turnout-obama-gop.html

"SNIP.............................................

In a conference call with reporters Obama campaign manager Jim Messina dropped some devastating numbers on Romney. Messina pointed out that more people are early voting for Obama in 2012 than did in 2008.

Messina laid out what early voting is looking like for the president right now. He said Obama is winning early voting in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Ohio early vote turnout is higher for Obama in 2008 than in Republican counties. He said that this election is more diverse. Most new registrants are under 30. 2/3 of those who have early voted are women, African-Americans, and Latinos. Democrats are winning everywhere where there are in person early votes.

Obama’s campaign manager explained why they think some of these polls are way off in the battleground states, “I do think there is some differences in states, we delve very deep into these states, and we think some people aren’t getting it right about who this electorate is going to be.” We continue to think the math has changed in Florida.” He said there are 250,000 more registered African-American and Latino voters in Florida, and that overall early voting among African-Americans is up 50% over 2008.

New voter registration numbers in Ohio heavily favor Obama. Four in five Ohioans (81 percent) who have registered to vote in 2012 are either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino. 64 percent of Ohioans who have registered to vote in 2012, and the same percentage among those who have already voted, live in counties that President Obama won in 2008.
.............................................SNIP"

[Maximumnegro]

1. In other words, Romney is toast in OH

Messina, Plouffe, and Axelrod have been saying the same thing repeatedly for a while now: Romney ain't gettin' OH. And no OH, no Romney presidency. Nevada is Obama's. Therefore, Romney has lost. All that's left is to run up the score and keep him from being able to pour any last minute resources. Keeping him on defensive in VA, FL, and VA and run out the clock - if Obama racks up some other states, then bonus.

Great news.

[NewJeffCT]

2. but, the mainstream media

says Obama is reeling and his chances are hanging by a thread... how can this be?

[JiminyJominy]

3. Great

Read..

Hope its legit and he's not just pumping. I'll take it nonetheless.

[Cha]

8. Sounds like it just verifies your cousin's report.

[michello]

10. It sounds like his cousins report!

[Cha]

12. Now, michello..

rofl

[sandyshoes17]

4. This why I cant understand these polls

They have them almost tied in OH.

[davidn3600]

9. Maybe white men havn't voted yet

I think the report is that 2/3rd of those that have voted are women and minorities. Which means the one group that is the most pro-Romney has yet to go to the polls.

Republicans don't believe in early voting. They have this thing where they think you are an irresponsible voter if you vote before the debates are over. In 2004, Kerry also ran up some big numbers in early voting that vanished about a week before the election.

Im not saying that Obama is in trouble. Im saying I seriously doubt Obama will win Ohio with 60%+ of the vote. That's going to close some.

[LisaL]

13. Yes, democrats normally do better than republicans in early voting.

So we need to run up really large margins.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Right. In '04, 10.6% of votes cast were from early voting. In '08, it was 29.7%.

1.7 million ballots were cast last go around in early voting. Right now, they expect 1.6 million. So, lower than '08...gotta bump that up or Obama could lose Ohio.

[LisaL]

19. SOS Husted send everyone an absentee ballot application.

So a lot of people are also voting absentee.
I think the total number of people who voted before Nov 6 will be higher than in 2008.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. Well I just read so far that 20% of the state has already voted...

If that number is true, then yes, it should be higher because I doubt it drops that significantly where only 9% more vote.

[JB126]

5. They pulled this crap in 08 too

They kept saying it was tied, and the talking heads kept up the nonsense even on the night of the election. I remember watching MSNBC on election night. David Gregory was saying how great McCain was doing and his guest was just rambling about how underestimated the great McCain campaign was... then Gregory had to interrupt him with the announcement that Ohio went to Obama. Gregory and Joe Scar looked like they were kicked in the gut, and forgot all about their pro-McCain guest. It was epic!

[Cha]

11. No wonder McCain's guests at his Phoenix Hotel's HQT looked

so Shocked when Obama WON!

MediaWhores gotta do what they do. My question is ..when are they going to way of the dinosaur?

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

17. The "pro McCain" guest....

....was Pastor TD Jakes.....most certainly an Obama supporter. He wasn't really on there to be a political expert, just talking about the history of the evening and the African American vote. He was put in a difficult position by Gregory to explain why there hadn't been a Bush state flip for Obama yet, and he just said McCain was a good candidate and was about to move on before he was interrupted....

Trust me, I remember the moment well.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. I do too...

I don't think he was coming at it from the role of political expert and just casual observer. He did call it anyone's game, I recall, and then mentioned that maybe we had underestimated McCain's support. I think, from his POV, as it was with a lot of Obama supporters, the thought that Ohio, Virginia and Florida weren't called the second they closed, and remained out there (with Virginia even showing McCain up most of the night before the Richmond area, I believe, put Obama over the top) was a bit surprising and we all got a bit of 2004-like anxiety.

Fitting that the state would be called right as everyone was saying Obama still needed to flip a red state.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

22. The sign McCain was in trouble....

....should have been that they couldn't call Indiana for him as soon as it closed.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. That and they called Pennsylvania right as it closed.

Since that was really his last lifeline in the race.

[TheDebbieDee]

24. They called California for Obama as soon as their polls closed........

and those 50+ electoral votes put Obama over the 270 electoral threshhold.

I was shocked and surprised. Yet thrilled at what I was witnessing.

And I was also disappointed in myself that I hadn't seen the California call coming - I usually anticipate things like that happening.

[krawhitham]

6. Some talking head on MSNBC said the opposite today

[Maximumnegro]

15. Yet Chuck Todd's pundit panel

all gave OH to Obama (despite Chuck's reservations). I'm gonna stick w/ the campiagn and Cook report on this one. Well for everything.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

18. Fuck Toad talks a totally different game on Twitter

Just the other night he admitted Florida was closer than Ohio.

[primaryblue]

7. Full Obama conference call audio

Here:
http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/23/the-view-from-chicago-2/

[DMacTX]

14. That is some incredibly positive, and much welcomed news!

[SLCLiberal]

25. Feels good..

to read. I just hope it keeps going this way.