Latest Huffpost/Pollster New York chart showing Hillary steady and Bernie sinking.

[DCBob]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-york-presidential-democratic-primary#!mindate=2016-01-01&estimate=custom

Looking good for a big win in NY for Madam Nominee!

[bettyellen]

1. But the pope pics!!

[onehandle]

2. Put a fork in The 'Not Hillary' Party. They're done. nt

[CAG]

3. But but but ..... Emails!!!

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

4. There aren't enough polls to draw any conclusions

[DCBob]

5. There's enough to make a chart!

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

8. Okay and show me how many pollsters

Have done more than one NY poll?

Only Emerson and it jumped 30points.

Comparing different pollsters is not a good idea, they use differing methodologies and different demographic distributions

[DCBob]

12. Send your complaints to Huffington Post/Pollster.

They have been following this model ever since the primaries process started last year.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

17. You drew the conclusions...

Huffington post just presents the available data

[DCBob]

22. No conclusions, just my informed opinion based on available data.

I suspect I will be correct.

Cheers!

[azurnoir]

27. some of which is over a year old

[DCBob]

31. I filtered to just show polls from this year.

[azurnoir]

75. you cut and pasted Huff Po's graph

[DCBob]

76. Its called a "custom" graph. I suspect even you could do it.

[azurnoir]

77. you're right I can indeed cut and paste from a publication

[DCBob]

79. There is no cut and pasting involved.

Its an option to build graphs based on dates and other choices. Try it you might like it.

[azurnoir]

80. your graph is labeled was being HuffPo's as in published by HuffPo

all anyone has to do is click the link

[DCBob]

81. It is "published" by HuffPost. They offer options to custom build graphs.

You need to check it out yourself. Clearly you are not aware of how it works.

[riversedge]

101. Chuckle

[OilemFirchen]

74. Ha ha.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511681042

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511636639

[workinclasszero]

6. Hillary is SURGING!

Check that big downward sinking Sanders line!

[DCBob]

24. Yes, one could look at that way.

Lets see the trend when the next polls come out.. I suspect you will be correct.

[RoccoR5955]

53. If flat lining is surging

Than call me Captain James Kirk!

[DCBob]

87. "Flatlining" at 55% is not bad.

[RoccoR5955]

89. Yeah well it's not surging.

In my dictionary, to surge means to increase suddenly and powerfully, typically during an otherwise stable or quiescent period.
Clinton is NOT surging.

[fun n serious]

90. Sanders donors...

Many of Bernie Sanders donors are asking for a refund. Lol..

[livetohike]

7. Looking good!

[Lucinda]

9. April has not been a great month for Bernie! n/t

[workinclasszero]

30. Thats a shame....

Seems like a good time for a little violin music.

[IamMab]

10. Thank you, Daily News Bin interview. Bernie Sadners couldn't have done it without you!

People finally paid attention to the man behind the curtain.

[JudyM]

13. Apparently you didn't read about the fact that the interviewer was the one who was confused and

Bernie was being kind by not calling him an idiot. The fed doesn't have authority to break up the banks but the interviewer kept acting and asking as if it did.

[IamMab]

14. Ok, sure, yeah, it's never Bernie Sadners' fault, ever, I know. nt

[JudyM]

18. Brilliant, substantive response. I'd normally say welcome to DU but ... no, not so much.

Folks here prefer intelligent substance to empty snark.

[IamMab]

19. Then how did you get in? nt

[JudyM]

20. Oh look, another clever remark.

[IamMab]

21. How would you know? nt

[DCBob]

23. Hehe..

Welcome to DU!

[Thinkingabout]

36. I listened to the interview, after avyear of running on breaking up the banks

Sanders still does not have a viable plan on how to break up the banks. Sanders did come across as one able to answer questions a president will need to answer. Actually I felt sorry for Sanders, it was too much for Sandees.

[riversedge]

104. Face it--Bernie is not ready for prime time and he BLEW IT!

[SidDithers]

11. DU rec...nt

Sid

[hrmjustin]

15. Sanders will only get 40-43% of the vote here.

[DCBob]

26. Yeah, I am predicting 60-40.

We shall see.

[Surya Gayatri]

16. K & R most enthusiastically.

[magical thyme]

25. that's based on 4 polls from different organizations. iow, meaningless noise

March 29 was Quinniapac
April 1 was YouGov
April 7 was Fox & Emerson.

They are using different polling methods, sizes, audiences, etc.

For example:

Emerson 3/14-16 Clinton 71; Sanders 23
Emerson 4/6-7 Clinton 56; Sanders 38
So in ~3 weeks Clinton is down 15; Sanders up 15

Quinniapac 5/28-6/1/15 Clinton 55; Sanders 15
Quinniapac 3/22-29 Clinton 54; Sanders 42
So in 10 months, and with other candidates dropping out, Clinton is up 1 and Sanders is up 27

Fox and YouGov apparently haven't polled NY since before May of last year, if at all.

[DCBob]

29. Its actually 7 polls. What if it was the other way around?

Hundreds of posts from the Bernie clan.. "BERNIE BLOWING HILLARY OUT IN NEW YORK... YUUUUGE!!

[magical thyme]

35. the OP talks about Bernie dropping. From his peak in that chart there are 4 polls

March 29 Quinniapac, April 1 YouGov, April 7 Fox & Emerson.

In the meantime, I don't see anybody posting about his dramatic rise in the Emerson poll, which timing-wise is probably the most meaningful simply because the prior poll is recent enough to reflect when he started campaigning in NY.

So I guess I'll do it here: BERNIE SURGING IN NY.....YUUUUUGE!

[DCBob]

37. This is the model HuffPost/Pollster has been using ever since the primary process began last year.

Sure the data is limited but that's no reason to ignore it.

[magical thyme]

42. yes there is. it's noise. there aren't enough pollsters doing repeat polls to tell a story

I cannot believe I'm actually agreeing with Buzzclick

I can't even begin to imagine what that means for the world....

[DCBob]

73. Its data. No poll is perfect. I look for recent trends.

The trends show Hillary is stable at 50+ and Bernie has peaked and is probably sinking.

[magical thyme]

82. again, a few polls all from different pollsters do NOT show a trend

you have to look at individual pollsters over time, or an average of the same group of pollsters over time.

Sorry, but this simply doesn't show anything significant at all. As a lab tech who monitored real trends in quality control for a few dozen different reagents that were tested on a daily basis for years, I can assure you this does not in any way, shape or form qualify as a trend. Not. Even. Close.

If you showed surveys from a single pollster repeated over time, then you might see a trend. But YOU CANNOT SHOW A TREND WITH ONE SURVEY EACH FROM DIFFERENT POLLSTERS. It simply doesn't work that way.

[DCBob]

85. All aggregated pollsters graph data this way.

Its standard procedure.

[Buzz Clik]

32. Trending back to Spring 2015 is meaningless.

The only trends that matter are the two weeks or so leading up to the vote -- April 1 on. No one is going to spend the money necessary for polling twice in that period (New York might be the exception), so look at the reliability of the polls from previous performances. Emerson, YouGov, and Qunnipiac are the ringers at this moment.

Sanders could easily cut the lead in half or even reduce it to one third of current. We'll know more one week from today.

Important to note is that this is a fully closed primary with the date for registration changes having past over a month ago. That is a very, very bad omen for Sanders. A 6+ point loss is quite likely.

[magical thyme]

38. I agree that polls from a year ago are meaningless

just as trying to compare results from 4 different polling organizations is meaningless.

As I just wrote in my post above this, the only one that is at all meaningful is the Emerson, since there is an Emerson poll from 3 weeks ago to compare it to. That shows Bernie trending up starting right about when he started campaigning in NY.

[magical thyme]

54. there are factors that favor Clinton, there are factors that favor Sanders

Closed primaries with registration last October favors Clinton.

Same day voting favors Sanders, but probably not as much as above favors Clinton.

Large presence of college students favors Sanders.

Wall Street favors Clinton.

Victims of Wall Street favors Sanders.

And so on.

The bottom line is that, as with everywhere, for Sanders it continues to be an upward climb.

[Buzz Clik]

28. Just stand back when Bernie comes back from the conference wearing this bad boy!

[DCBob]

39. LOL

[magical thyme]

43. ...

Now THAT will be YUUUUGE!

[karynnj]

33. I can play with a customized graph too!

Just add more smoothing and take the whole times series rather than truncating the beginning.

Quite different:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-york-presidential-democratic-primary#!smoothing=more&estimate=custom

In fact, there are not all that many polls.

[DCBob]

34. Try again.. your graph didnt show.

You have to view the image then copy the image address then post that in the message text.

[karynnj]

44. I opted to just put in a link

[DCBob]

46. Got it. But its better to post the graphic directly ... imo.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. This is Bernie's Waterloo, Stalingrad , Maginot Line, and Bar Lev Line built into one.

After all as we have been reminded, ad nauseam and ad infinitum, he's the Prodigal Son returning.

[DCBob]

48. Yes, I'm starting to see that.

The Bernie bunch are really getting nervous. This could be the end.

[Buzz Clik]

41. That's a lot of smoothing. Four of the last six polls have Sanders losing ground.

[karynnj]

49. Not true -- the last two are down from the two polls before that

Otherwise the series is Sanders gaining ground. Not to mention, one of those polls - Emerson had an earlier poll that was so much of an outlier that DCBob's choice of smoothing as well as this one completely ignored it. The other is the first Fox News poll.

The fact is that there has not been a lot of polling yet.

[DCBob]

47. Graphing from Jan 2015 is absurd.

Bernie hadn't even announced then.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. We have been reminded, ad infinitum and ad nauseam, he's returning home.

I left NYC in 1970 as a kid. If I returned to NYC tomorrow I would be lost.

[karynnj]

57. Fine plot from May 2015 -- when he did announce - by the way it only plots from March

which was when he was first polled because there was talk he was running - He informally announced he was running on April 30, 2015.
It doesn't look much different if you cut out that March data point.

What you can say is that HRc has been in the low to mid 50s the entire time. The early Emerson poll is clearly an outlier. It is also clear that Sanders has risen to the high 30s/low 40s. The real question will be with the contest actually in NY can he gain the needed 10 - 12 points to tie her. Very few non partisan people have suggested he can. It would be a major upset if he tied or beat her.

[DCBob]

58. Plotting from then is still rediculous.

I think they way I did it is the most logical and has the most relevance to reality.

[karynnj]

67. NONE of the plots make sense

You are smoothing 7 data points for each -- one of which gets thrown out. It would be better just to plot the 14 points - without lines. There really is not that much data.

I told you what I would conclude from that data:
1) Clinton has polled in a very narrow range in all polls in the last year -- ignoring the one outlier. That is in the low to mid 50s.

2) Bernie has risen to be in the high 30s/low 40s.

3) In most primaries - this year or past years, there is often greater movement in the last weeks.

4) Few people covering NY think that Bernie can suddenly gain the 10 to 12 points needed to tie Clinton.

Given the precision of the estimate, the strange performance of Emerson, I do not think there is yet enough information to speak of Bernie falling. It is possible, but the difference is within the confidence intervals for the polls. (That there are 2 is better than 1, but you can't make a strong statistical case for it.)

[DCBob]

69. Of course there is no statistical significance here.

It's just a trend of data points bit I think its real. There will be new polls coming out soon that will help clarify what is going on.

[Thinkingabout]

40. Sanders needs 60+ to get the needed delegates.

[DCBob]

50. Yeah.. he needs a "yuuuuuge" win.

Aint gonna happen.

[Thinkingabout]

56. Wins in all the rest of the primaries.

[DCBob]

59. Which is impossible.

[Thinkingabout]

62. Yes and the losses may be yuuugggeee!

@

[chillfactor]

52. YEAH!

[RoccoR5955]

55. You do know that they don't poll NY much

and these polls this year have been consistently off, don't you?
I take them with a grain of salt, because I have faith that the carpetbagger shall lose!

[DCBob]

60. There will be more polls coming out soon if you dont trust these.

BTW, the only polls that have been off have been the caucuses and the open primaries. NY is a closed primary. All of the previous closed primaries had accurate polling.

[RoccoR5955]

64. If you say so.

I still know New Yorkers, and I say that the polls are off.

[DCBob]

68. I think what I posted is factual.. not my opinion.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

72. Bernie loved New York so much he moved to Vermont.

[DCBob]

78. That's a good question.

Why did Bernie abandon New York and move to lovely "clean" Vermont?

[Armstead]

86. Please enlighten me with your theory of his nefarious motive

I know know there must be something sinister for anyone to have a preference for trees and mountains and fresh air and human scale of life in tutal New England.

What evil motive did he have?

[DCBob]

88. White flight perhaps?

[Armstead]

91. You just hit a new low....The only reason to leave the city are AA's?

Last edited Sun Apr 10, 2016, 10:25 PM - Edit history (1)

A guy who almost gets his skull cracked to protest segregated housing isn't likely to object to living in the vicinity of AAs.

I live in rural New England and a lot of people move here for many reasons. Ultimately most do because they prefer the human scale of life andthe better physical environment and the ability to breathe, figuratively and literally.

I find your statement to be either very uninformed, reverse bigoted or cynically political.

[RoccoR5955]

83. And so did millions and millions of others.

I guess you have never been there. There comes a time when you have to get out of the congested city, or you go crazy! The place can literally drive you nuts. I know, because I moved out of NYC myself!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

93. I was born in Manhattan (Mount Sinai Hospital) raised in Queens.

[RoccoR5955]

94. And I was born and raised in Brooklyn.

Raised in Queens? What part? My grandmother lived in Laurelton.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

95. Far Rockaway, Rego Park, and Forest Hills.

But I moved to FL when I was eleven thus making my NY ties somewhat tenuous. My dad owned a luncheonette in Redfern and then a candy store in Jamaica.


My aunt lived on Lincoln Road in Brooklyn and my grandfather lived in Brighton beach.

[RoccoR5955]

96. Isn't Far Rockaway Nassau County?

Rego Park and Forest Hills are far more better off areas than where I lived. I lived in Canarsie, Brownsville, and Flatbush. I moved to Midwood, then Bensonhurst, then out to New Paltz. I was 25 by then. I just couldn't stand being a strap-hanger on those cattle cars they call subways during rush hour. I would eventually leave about 1/2 hour early and take the train back to Coney Island so I could at least have a seat.
Now the Mid-Hudson bridge traffic is getting to me. Well at least I only have 13 months more of it before I retire. But if Drumpf or some other RepubliCLOWN gets in office, I'm done, I'll move to Europe. I can get an EU passport as an Italian, because my grandfather was an Italian. The Italian government considers me an Italian citizen. I just have to get a load of paperwork to them. I am working on getting it, just in case.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

97. Far Rockaway is in Queens, adjacent to Long Beach which is Nassau County.

My parents were far from well off... They operated a candy store and luncheonette together. My pops had a ninth grade education but my mom was good with money so she ensured we lived in a nice neighborhood.

[RoccoR5955]

98. Good for you

My dad didn't even have a High School education. We lived in the projects. We were one of about a dozen white families in the projects when I grew up. That's probably another reason why I had to get out of there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

100. My dad's luncheonette was in Redfern in the late 50s/early 60s

Google Redfern Projects.

[riversedge]

105. I think VT gave him a better chance to be a one-man-figure. Reather fits his MO IMHO

[Surya Gayatri]

61. Kick!

[Beacool]

63. I don't know why realistically anyone would think that Sanders would win NY.

Last edited Sun Apr 10, 2016, 08:49 PM - Edit history (1)

I know that Sanders and his campaign want to push that meme, but it's not based on the reality on the ground.

[DCBob]

70. They have become over confident with his string of wins in caucuses...

and less diverse states with open voting. New York is of course a diverse state with a closed primary.. not a good scenario for Bernie.

[SharonClark]

65. Good news although I suspect it will closer than that

[anotherproletariat]

66. That New York Daily News article was disasterous for Sanders...I know many people who changed

their support based on his apparent lack of substance.

[DCBob]

71. Yeah, even though the Daily News is somewhat tabloidal it is read by millions..

and has impact.

[RoccoR5955]

84. It certainly was a hit piece.

And they did a good job of hitting him with questions that I don't think that ANY candidate could answer.
I wonder what Clinton's answers would have been, had they asked her similar questions, and how they would have played it.

[riversedge]

102. Bernie blew it--he was not ready for vetting--which showed his #FAIL in the interview

[Marr]

92. Great! You should be very happy then.

No need to work at all. Hillary can just slide right into her first victory in... what is it, eight states now? Yep-- just take the next two weeks off! This one's in the bag!

[mcar]

99. K&R

[riversedge]

103. REC. and Thank you.

[Surya Gayatri]

106. Kick!