Sanders' Wins To Date and His Path Forward

[Attorney in Texas]

So far, Hillary remains successful as a regional candidate, but a weak and vulnerable national candidate.

The contests over the past month have confirmed the extreme weakness of Hillary's centrist campaign outside least progressive region of the US (the 13 ex-Confederate states of the Bible Belt):



First, let's be perfectly clear before the Hillary Patrol begins their whine about how "the Bible Belt matters!" Of course all regions matter. The Bible Belt is about a fifth of the country and it should count for a similar proportion of the candidate selection process. We get that Hillary has a southern accent and likes to talk about her church going faith in God when she campaigns in the Bible Belt. We get that she's the former First Lady of Arkansas. We get that her centrist message is going to beat a strong progressive message in the most anti-choice, anti-LGBT-equality, anti-union, anti-semitic region of the US, our Bible Belt. No one is ignoring this vote. Hillary won it. Congratulations!

In the rest of America, however, Sanders' 16 wins in the 23 non-Bible-Belt states where Sanders has earned 56% of the pledged delegates continues to show that Sanders is much preferred over Hillary:

State.....Hillary Delegates.....Sanders Delegates

IA.....................23....................21
NH.....................9....................15
NV....................20....................15
CO....................28....................38
MA....................46....................45
MN....................31....................46
OK....................17.....................21
VT......................0.....................16
NE....................10.....................15
KS....................10.....................23
ME......................9.....................16
MI.....................63.....................67
IL......................78.....................78
MO....................36.....................35
OH....................81.....................62
AZ…………………..….42………….....………33
UT……………………....6…………….....…….27
ID……………………..…5…………….....…….18
AK.....................3......................13
HI......................8......................17
WA....................27.....................74
WI.....................38....................48
WY....................7.......................7

Total................597...................750 out of 1347

While Sanders has already erased almost half of the pledged delegate lead Hillary built up in the Bible Belt, he still has a 216 delegate deficit to overcome, but this is to be expected considering the least progressive states were front-loaded onto the calendar. If you account for the ideological front-loading of the least progressive states, then you would expect that Sanders would be behind in the delegate count at this stage in the primary calendar even though he would be on tract for the nomination.

Considering this front-loading, Sanders is only about 90 pledged delegates short of where he would want to be to remain on track to win the majority of the pledged delegates.

This 90 pledged delegate gap is definitely surmountable.

Nate Silver's projections about the pace at which each of the candidates would need to win pledged delegates to enter the convention with a majority assumes a race that was tied from beginning to end.

But the race has not been static; instead, Hillary started out ahead and Sanders has caught or passed her (compare a graph of all national polling versus a graph of only the more reliable live cellphone plus landline polling):

ALL POLLS


ALL LIVE PHONE POLLS

Sanders' taking the lead is even more significant because these nationwide polls include the 13 Bible Belt states where Hillary is far more popular so, to balance our Hillary's regional popularity, Sanders needs to be even more popular outside the Bible Belt than the popularity shown in the national polling.

We can do this!

Keep fighting! Keep phone banking! Keep winning!

[uponit7771]

1. Podium bird math and realities don't count

[Hortensis]

6. Every state that has already voted means

one fewer chance to catch up. And we now enter a stretch where the advantage shifts to the other side. Just saying. It's good to be hopeful but not to be unprepared for disappointment.

I don't know what difference the tie in beautiful little Wyoming will make, but before that Bernie needed 68% of all the remaining delegates to win. Now he needs to get a somewhat higher percentage and has one less state to do it in.

[bkkyosemite]

2. I'm concerned the vote machines in NY will be rigged for her.

[yourpaljoey]

3. count on it

[TMontoya]

20. Already starting?

With the excuses? Still upset you can't have your independent spoilers?

[bkkyosemite]

27. independent spoilers get real......how bout paper ballots with all sides watching the count.

[brooklynite]

28. I'm sure Sanders will call for a recount...right?

NYS votes on paper ballots which are retained for recounts.

Funny that Sanders hasn't challenged the result of any State he's lost, huh?

[dsc]

4. you have such a high opinion of blacks

the demographic that has been with us through thick and thin. and yes that is the people you are disparaging with your post.

[potone]

10. No, he is not.

It is a fact that the primary schedule was front-loaded so that the most conservative states would vote early in the process. Everyone knows that Clinton had the advantage in the South because of having been the First Lady of Arkansas, as well as having benefited from name recognition in general. It took time for people to get to know Bernie, and since the media largely ignored him or called him "un-electable," he started out way behind. If those states were to vote today, some of the results might be different. That is not to disparage the African Americans who voted for Hillary; they have known her and her husband for years.

[Attorney in Texas]

22. Exactly. Some act as if they don't allow white voters to vote in the Bible Belt when - in fact -

white Democrats are a majority of the centrist Democratic party in the Bible Belt.

[brooklynite]

29. ...but they're not a majority of the voters in the 2016 Democratic Primaries in the Southern States

[Attorney in Texas]

31. You won't be able to source that because it's untrue.

[brooklynite]

32. read em and weep...

South Carolina: 61% black http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/sc/dem
Georgia: 51% black http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ga/dem
Mississippi: 71% black http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ms/dem
Alabama: 54% black http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/al/dem
Texas: 51% black or latino http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/tx/dem

[Attorney in Texas]

34. So we agree white Democrats were the majority in most of the 13 states, and the majority overall?

[Cali_Democrat]

5. So if you take away states that Hillary won.....Bernie is actually leading!

Sweet!

Carolina also won the Super Bowl, if you take away the points scored by Denver.

Carolina = 2016 Super Bowl Champions!

[uponit7771]

7. ".. least progressive states.." like Kansas or Utah or where you talking about the states with black

... voters over 20%

Thinly veiled bullshit ass'd post.

Sanders wins two of the least progressive states in the union but those states aren't mentioned in your post.

[Vote2016]

8. The OP had polling data showing that the Deep South was the most anti-choice and anit-LGBT region.

Are you disputing the polling or offering contrary polling?

[uponit7771]

9. Neither, just a full perspective that none of that represent the progressive voters in the dem

... primary.

The whole "state" != dem primary and you know it

[Vote2016]

11. All I know is that Southern state Democrats tend to be conservative and Western state Democrats tend

to be progressive but out numbered (the Democrats in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, etc. are awesome!).

If you look at the collaborator Democrats, the Deep South is overly represented among the anti-Progressive Democratic ranks.

[uponit7771]

17. The link doesn't have any polling data on progressiveness in them so I don't believe the claim

... that southern democrats are less progressive

Also, what's disenginous about this meme is that the most conservative GE states in the union have voted for Sanders one of the main difference is those states have less than 20% PoC in them.

Kansas is a conservative bastion of fail and it went to Sanders

[Vote2016]

23. The OP had polling data. My post had a link to a vote where anti-Progressive Democrats joined with

Republicans to vote for some anti-Arab bigotry so you could see how it was mainly Democrats from the Deep South who cross party lines on such anti-Progressive bullshit.

[Codeine]

13. "Thinly veiled bullshit ass'd post. "

You said it!

[Henhouse]

12. Wow...If acres were votes, Bernie in a landslide...nt

[Alfresco]

14. Losing campaigns make terrible arguments as reality and desperation set in.

The Sanders campaign is circling the drain.

[mythology]

15. It's going to be very hard on you when Clinton wins

At this point it's really hard to find a way for Sanders to get the pledged delegate win. Sanders has done well, but once again the demographics are turning against him and time is running out.

[Attorney in Texas]

18. No, it's going to be hard on me if Cruz wins. I don't care about Hillary - I'm progressive instead.

[SidDithers]

16. ...

#berniemath

Hillary's losing in the places she didn't win.

Sid

[Attorney in Texas]

19. Either we nominate Sanders or Neo-Goldwater beats Neo-Nixon. You wouldn't like Neo-Goldwater but he

beats Neo-Nixon if we're dumb enough to nominate her.

[AzDar]

21. K & R

[Agschmid]

24. Bookmarking.

[Beacool]

25. Sigh.........

June can't come too soon.

[CrowCityDem]

26. Bernie is also regional

His are the regions with less people. Hmm.. I wonder why he wins the areas where you're less likely to have to interact with other people as often.

[Zira]

37. Wrong. He's taken even the states he didn't win. he keeps wining with people who show up to vote

on the day of voting. Hillary is losing states she won because her delegates aren't showing up at all to vote in the states 2nd round primaries.

In one state she won, 700 of her delegates didn't show up. In Missouri her delegates didn't show up so Bernie won the state instead.

This is what happened, the early voters voted for Hillary and then changed their minds. Bernie has won the last 10 states when it came to election day vote. Hillary can't make the delegate count now. That's why we're going to a contested election. If Hilalry wins the contested with her unelected super BOUGHT OUT delegates, there will be a mass exodus from the Democratic party and Hillary will not win in November.

Hillary cannot win the GE no matter what. She doesn't have a larger majority than the Republicans if the Republicans unify. Too many independents voters who would vote for sanders won't vote for hillary. And too many had been Dem voters won't. As I said, there will be a mass exodus. There is already an exodus and a few papers have covered it, it's gaining momentum. You can stay and hold down the DNC fort as a unwinnable ever-again minority supporting the .01 percent if you want. I will be re-registering as an independent and not posting here further. No chance I won't leave with the exodus over your super corrupt candidate and dnc voting suppression.

--------------------
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/the-democrats-are-headed-for-a-contested-convention-too_b_9620362.html

"The questions then start to come faster: why did 700 more Sanders delegates show up to the Clark County (NV) Democratic Convention than Clinton delegates, when Clinton “won” Nevada on Election Day by 5.5 points? Why did Clinton win nonwhite voters by an average of 70 points in the Deep South, and then start winning them by smaller and smaller margins everywhere else — with a current margin of (depending upon the national or state poll) somewhere between zero and 19 points? Why did Secretary Clinton lose Wisconsin, a state any solid front-runner this late in the election season would expect to carry handily — as now-President Obama did in 2008 — by 13.4 points?

The answer: this isn’t 2008. This is the slow-motion collapse of a front-runner’s campaign.

A 48-point lead in New York is now down to just 10 points two and a half weeks later. Senator Sanders has won seven of the last eight contests, and — lest we forget — actually won the voting in Arizona on Election Day 52 percent to 48 percent after all the votes had been counted. In other words, he’s won the last eight Election Days in a row, and it’ll be nine on Saturday, when he wins in Wyoming by forty points or more."

[oberliner]

30. Idaho and Utah are progressive states?

Weird way to spin things.

[Attorney in Texas]

33. Compare the Democrats in Idaho and Utah versus the Democrats in the South

Compare, for example, the records of Southern Democrats who vote with the Republicans in Congress versus the records of liberal mayors in Idaho and Utah (e.g., Dave Bieter, Mayor of Boise, Idaho, Jackie Biskupski, Mayor of Salt Lake City, Utah)

[oberliner]

35. There are no Democrats in Congress from either of Utah or Idaho

So there is no way to compare voting records, since none exist.

Also there are liberal mayors in the South as well.

[pantsonfire]

36. Nevada and Missouri look likey to flip....he's likely down by approx. 204 delegates.