CNN - Exit polls: Half of Clinton's supporters won't back Obama

[TomCADem]

The polls discussing how a third of Bernie's supporters would not vote for Hillary, and would either stay home or vote for Trump, represent an ominous warning of the situation that Hillary would face in the general election given how badly the Democratic Party is divided today.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/06/exit-polls-half-of-clintons-supporters-wont-back-obama/

(CNN 2008) - Just how badly is the Democratic Party divided?

According to the exit polls, half of Clinton's supporters in Indiana would not vote for Obama in a general election match up with John McCain. A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Just 48 percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.

Obama gets even less support from Clinton backers in North Carolina. There, only 45 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-eight percent said they would vote for McCain while 12 percent said they would not vote.

Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said they'd support the New York Democrat.

[still_one]

1. If your point is that Democratic voters will unite behind the nominee in the GE

I agree

[TomCADem]

3. Guardian: The Bernie Sanders voters who would choose Trump over Clinton

I do not know. A full third of Bernie supporters would not support Hillary if she were the nominee. And, as was the case in 2008, this article notes that many Bernie sanders would switch to Trump.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/13/bernie-sanders-supporters-consider-donald-trump-no-hillary-clinton

The latest startling phenomenon is the voter who is feeling the Bern, but also has eyes for the Donald.

This week the Guardian sought out Sanders fans who are contemplating switching their allegiance to Trump if Hillary Clinton secures the Democratic nomination.

Almost 700 people replied to the call-out, and some 500 of them said they were thinking the unthinkable: a Sanders-Trump switch.

They explained their unconventional position by expressing a variety of passionately held views on their shared commitment for protecting workers and against new wars, on their zeal for an alternative to the establishment, and on their desire to support anyone but Hillary Clinton. As one respondent, a 34-year-old male IT technician, put it: “Bernie and Trump agree a lot on healthcare, Iraq war, campaign finance and trade. I really want to move on to something new, new ideas from outside the box. Maybe Donald Trump can provide that.”

[Fawke Em]

8. None of us will be voting for Trump, but we will vote for Jill Stein.

The problem with the theory put forth in this thread is that it assumes that the Democratic Party has kept the membership it had in 2008. It hasn't. Heck, it's dwindled from 42 percent to 29 percent in two years.

The people who won't be voting for Clinton aren't beholden to the party: the disenfranchised (and former) Democrat, Independents and, the largest block of voters, Millennials.

[TomCADem]

11. "Bernie Sanders won with white men on Super Tuesday" - Jill Stein?

Given that Bernie has destroyed Hillary in the large white male demographic, would Jill be able to capture this demographic or would they instead vote for Trump as noted in the Guardian article?

http://theweek.com/speedreads/609811/bernie-sanders-won-white-men-super-tuesday-hillary-clinton-won-everyone-else

Bernie Sanders was only able to win the support of one major demographic on Super Tuesday, according to exit polls presented by MSNBC's Steve Kornacki. While Hillary Clinton dominated among black voters (83 percent to 15 percent) and Hispanics (67 percent to 33 percent), Sanders' sole group win was with white men, 54 percent to Clinton's 44 percent.

Clinton has a lot of thanks to give especially to black voters, NBC News reports. NBC writes that, "If only white Democrats had voted on Tuesday in [the Southern] states, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would not have been that far behind Clinton in terms of accumulating delegates."

Sanders has been criticized for his concerning lack of appeal among minority voters as well as for his attention-grabbing "Berniebros," who tend to identify as exactly the demographic Sanders won over on Tuesday — white men. "The Berniebro is someone you may only have encountered if you're somewhat similar to him: white; well-educated; middle-class (or, delicately, 'upper middle-class'); and aware of NPR podcasts and jangly bearded bands," The Atlantic writes.

And while Sanders has surprised in the past by ranking well with a group Clinton desperately wants — millennial women — he actually lost women overall to Clinton, with white women favoring her 57 percent to Sanders' 41 percent in the exit polls. White voters as a whole also gravitated toward Clinton, 50 percent to 48 percent.

[SharonClark]

16. But that didn't happen

The so-called "pumas" were a handful of trouble makers who failed. The vast majority of Hillary supporters supported Obama. Especially those that were Democrats.

[MineralMan]

2. Poor Obama. What a pity he didn't win in 2008, eh?

Oh...wait...Obama won Indiana in 2008? How could that story be wrong?

More silliness. The vast majority of Clinton supporters voted for Obama in the General Election. The same will occur with the majority of Sanders supporters in November of this year. People are not so stupid as to hand the entire federal government over to the Republicans. Not a freaking chance.

[TomCADem]

30. CNN: Clinton backers by her side, Palin makes pitch to women voters

Still, if Bernie does not win, I bet Fox and CNN will prominently display any former Bernie supporters who have now decided to jump on board with fellow anti-establishment candidate, Donald Trump.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/21/clinton-backers-by-her-side-palin-makes-pitch-to-women-voters/

HENDERSON, Nevada (CNN) - Flanked by a quintet of former Hillary Clinton supporters, Sarah Palin on Tuesday made her most direct appeal to female voters since kicking off her vice presidential campaign in August.

With polls showing Palin's unfavorable ratings among women rising over the last month, the Alaska governor looked to tap into any lingering tensions left over from the drawn-out Democratic primary battle - a fight that left many Clinton supporters disappointed.

"Our opponents think that they have the women's vote all locked up, which is a little presumptuous," Palin said. "Little presumptuous, since only our side has a woman on the ticket."

"You've got to ask yourself, why was Senator Hillary Clinton not even vetted by the Obama campaign? Why did it take 24 years, an entire generation from the time Geraldine Ferraro made her pioneering bid, until the next time that a woman was asked to join a national ticket?"

[SFnomad]

4. The PUMAs were bitter sore losers, just like the #BernieOrBust'ers

In the end, the PUMAs were a small, marginalized group of people. And they played no significant part of the 2008 elections. You'll notice that Obama won anyways.

Is this what the #BernieOrBust'ers want to be known as, as well?

[Politicalboi]

5. This is Way different

He's more honest than her. To back her is to back all her terrible baggage and lies. And Bill Clinton cheated for Hillary in Ma. Bernie should be awarded Ma for their antics. I will NEVER support those that stole from me. Fuck them. I hope she loses. Fucking cheaters and liars.

[TomCADem]

12. Yup, Way Different. Not Like Obama had Reverend Wright Baggage, Etc.

I recall that same level of bitterness among Hillary supporters, which explains why such a large segment of folks were either going to sit out he election or were going to vote for McCain. Like you, Susan Sarandon notes that she too would never vote for Hillary and indicated that even allowing Trump to win might have some positive consequences:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/susan-sarandon-bernie-sanders/475875/

Susan Sarandon says she might prefer Donald Trump because he’d bring about revolution faster.

Sarandon appeared on Chris Hayes’s MSNBC show Tuesday night, where she made her case for Sanders, citing his record on free trade, prisons, genetically modified foods, and more. Hayes pointed out that elections are choices, and asked whether she would vote for Clinton in a general election matchup against Donald Trump.

“I think Bernie would probably encourage people [to vote Clinton], because he doesn’t have a lot of ego in this,” she said. “But I think a lot of people are, ‘Sorry, I just can’t bring myself to do that.’” As for herself, “I don’t know. I’m going to see what happens.”

* * *
“Some people feel Donald Trump will bring the revolution immediately,” she replied.

[840high]

33. .that^

[Zira]

36. +10000 It's way different. It's post occupy now. The 1% in our politics is the enemy.

I won't vote for it.

[quantumjunkie]

6. The Big Difference though is Hillary Supporters were and still are mostly Old while...

Bernie Supporters and Obama (2008) were and are young and highly educated (men and women). When the GE came around it was no surprise these PUMAs and other old folk would mostly jump to Obama for several obvious reasons. What's different now though is the young have a better understanding of how pay-for-play Hillary is (her entire career) and her record that they will have less motivation to come out and vote for her or feel voting for her would be like voting against "the people".

Hillary's best hope though is if Trump is the GOP nominee because in that case for the young it will be the less of two evils to vote for Hillary. But if it's say Kasiche (who ironically, from his record, would do less to damage to "the people" than Hillary) she would lose because Bernie's base will not come out for her.

This is why getting Bernie to stump for her in the GE will be very important. This will help soften the blow for Bernie supporters. If Bernie is wise he will negotiate a deal with Hillary that will benefit "the people" even though Hillary has a track record of reneging for the sake of her pocket book. Hillary did this with Obama, not for the people as usual, but for her personal gain: SoS and pocketing the profits (through related speeches and back deal bribes through her foundation).

The best solution to all of this is to make Bernie the nominee because he is a real Democrat.

[Zynx]

18. ???????

That last sentence was baffling beyond belief.

[mythology]

21. I'm more hung up on the notion that he or she things that

Clinton would be a worse president than Kasich.

[Zira]

40. Kasich hasn't proved himself to be a warhawk. Clinton has proved to have a very RW agenda.

And I mean on everything. Kasich may not even sign the TPP. Many republicans don't want it. Hillary will absolutely sign it and the Keystone XL.

[Zira]

37. The Bernie Supporters also have a whole lot of independents that are talking about Stein if they

can't have Bernie. The Dems will not have a majority over the republicans if Clinton runs.

in 2008 they expected the party to unite. in 2016 a lot of what's left of the party are leaving it completely.

[Zira]

39. +10000

[zappaman]

7. It's 2016.

You might want to buy a new calendar.

[creon]

9. Free country

People have the right to vote for whomever they please.
And, no explanation is owed to me.

[840high]

34. Thank you!

[Tarc]

10. The PUMA bitterness faded quickly, esp when Hillary conceded and called us out to support Obama

It will be the same with Bernie.

[restorefreedom]

13. nope. trash and destroy has turned many off permanently

and that is dems. never mind indys whom she never had in the first place.

she cannot and will not win a ge

[Tarc]

17. You and the recalcitrant DU Sanders contingent are not representative of the whole

Keep that in mind.

[restorefreedom]

20. its the whole of everyone i know.

and i have spoken to others who can say the same thing.

its like thar old shampoo add..tell two friends and they tell two friends and so on.....

i know one person who will vote for hillary and she has always been a supporter.

and being true to ones principles is not being recalcitrant

[mythology]

22. That isn't even remotely a representative sample

It just makes you look silly that you think that the plural of anecdote is data.

[restorefreedom]

23. surveys back it up as well. lots of bernie people

can not or will not support a clinton nominee.

unless you think the surveys are made up, that counts as data.

[oberliner]

25. The point of the OP is that surveys also showed that Hillary supporters wouldn't back Obama

But they ended up doing so when the time came.

[restorefreedom]

26. perhaps. but obama did not run a campaign of smear and destroy

hillary is. she will never get people back as he did

[oberliner]

27. The 2008 campaign between Hillary and Obama was much nastier than this one

I think Democrats will rally around the eventual nominee.

[restorefreedom]

41. it might have been, but once again, hillary was one playing dirty not obama.

obama had a reasonable case to make for people to rally around him. he played fair and was the victor last time.

this time if she wins, it will be the nasty campaigner who wins.
hillary campaign just said they are going to destroy bernie and unite the party later.

she can forget it with an attitude like that. if some want to join her,they are welcome to but many will not, and she wont be able to win a ge if she even gets that far.

and to save you the typing about a trump presidency blah blah, many refuse to be ruled by fear. it has happened that way for far too long which is why the obsolete two party system has continued way past its expiration date.

time for some big changes.

[Tarc]

43. Yes, your little social circle is stubborn

That is abundantly clear.

Therest of the Sanders voters are not.

[restorefreedom]

44. oh, then those surveys are wrong, too. ok. nt

[840high]

35. Nope.

[Skwmom]

15. Obama didn't have a large chunk of people with a long history of NOT supporting him. Clinton is NO

Obama

[sadoldgirl]

19. If I remember correctly Obama had

generally speaking very little if any problem
with trustworthiness. It is an important part
for voters, and HRC has a serious problem
with that issue.

This is not 08, the country is upset and
angry at establishment politics, and over
40% of registered voters are independents.

Like it or not HRC stands for many as representative
of the establishment. Again different from 08.

[brooklynite]

24. There's a HUGE difference between the PUMA movement and the BernieorBust movement...

...BernieorBust has a nifty #hashtag which makes them SERIOUS!

[w4rma]

28. The huge difference between Clinton's PUMAs and Bernie-or-Busters is Hillary's unfavorability rating

No President has ever, in our history, been elected with a 55+% disfavorability rating. None.

[BlueStreak]

29. But Obama won Indiana. Those polls are bullshit. Empty threats.

Pollsters catch people at an emotional moment and frame the questions the way that will produce the biggest headlines. What people actually do months later has no connection with those polls at all.

Having said that, I am an Sanders supporter. I worked actively campaigning for Obama. I am not any more excited about another Clinton as Republicans were about another Bush. THAT is the real problem. It has nothing to do with Bernie. The Clintons are appeasers and mostly just junior Republicans. That is what the whole "New Democrat" thing was about. It was a plan to allow Democratic insiders to get the $50,000 speaking fees from the Moneyed Elite, just as the Republicans always have.

It is hard to reconcile the Clinton legacy with the principles that Sanders has been fighting for.

[Onlooker]

31. You posted a primary exit poll that took place 6 months before the election

I know only 10% of Democrats supported McCain in the GE, and that number is pretty typical. There are always some who won't support the nominee -- there are diehard leftists who won't vote for Hillary under any circumstance, there are politically moderate feminists who won't vote for Bernie under any circumstances, there are people in red and blue states who won't need to vote for the nominee, but the sore losers are really a small number.

At a heated time like this, both Bernie and Hillary supporters are in their corners. Most of them will line up behind the nominee. DU is different -- it's filled with the diehard supporters of each, but most people are not that invested in politics in the first place.

[pantsonfire]

32. Time will tell, 2008 isn't 2016. n/t

[Zira]

38. I want to see the 2008 articles where a whole lot of dems were talking about exiting the party

completely because of corruption. 2008 really isn't 2016.

[gollygee]

42. That was a nasty primary season too nt