Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOne more analytical model
http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/index.htmlFrom the University of Illinois.
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
10 replies, 1263 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (4)
ReplyReply to this post
10 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
One more analytical model (Original Post)
MSMITH33156
Oct 2012
OP
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)1. Interesting
If I read it right, even switching to "Strong Republican" Rmoney loses by a considerable EV margin.
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)2. I like
Although even if I play with the bars and select strong Democrat, the House doesn't change much at all.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)3. Yeah, not much seems to change the outcome.
kansasobama
(609 posts)4. Looks very good
Pretty good
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)5. Analytic, NOT predictive...
All forecasts are for the day on which the polls were taken. They represent the outcome if the election was held on that day, not the projected outcome on November 6.
In other words, it predicts nothing. The entire scenario could change with new polling data tomorrow. All it shows is that, even if there was a strong shift to the Republicans today, if the election were held now, Obama would still get a narrow win. But that is subject to change without notice once you move past today.
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)9. Updated the thread title
but it is not a narrow win. It is electorally, but it rates it as a 99% chance.
krispos42
(49,445 posts)6. So we don't get the House?
Shit.
A-Schwarzenegger
(15,596 posts)7. This does not help me do the freak out.
I must be to the freak out please more.
I am only the freak out to do more soon.
This is not a good anlayitsc to the freak out.
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)8. The reason that switching the orientation
between strong Dem, strong Rep, etc. is that this only includes undecideds. For whatever reason, this model is really bullish on several states, so the undecideds just don't matter.
courseofhistory
(801 posts)10. Screenshot...
[img][/img]