Benchmark Politics NYS model: Clinton 57% - Sanders 43%

[brooklynite]

After all the hype and excitement, we finally come to the New York primary. This is without a doubt the most crucial primary to date considering how many delegates are at stake and how highly contested the state is as a whole. Sanders was born in Brooklyn however he does not claim New York as his home state which would make it similar to the relationship Clinton had with Illinois. Clinton was a senator in New York and considers the state her current home so for all intents and purposes we will be referring to it as “Clinton’s home state”. A win for Sanders (win being defined as +-3% margin for either side) would be a big indicator to a fundamental change in the race as there is a path moving forward for Sanders to reach a plurality as long as he wins New York by a 3-4% margin. Clinton on the other hand would all but wrap up the primary season with a double digit victory as it would further her delegate lead and make neighboring states like Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey look like safe wins for her. One thing to consider is that the primary is a closed primary, and it has some of the worst "closed primary" rules in the nation, meaning you had to switch parties up to 6 months ago to be considered able to vote here. All in all, the race is VERY tough for Sanders in the state.

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/new-york-final-county-benchmarks.html