Clinton likely to have alot more superdelegates locked up than are being reported

[DCBob]

From the Wash Post..

Clinton’s strength among super delegates appears to be understated by public counts. Campaign officials have told their allies in the party that their actual super-delegate count is at least 100 more than the AP count and closing in on 600 overall. Nor are those tasked with keeping an eye on those super delegates seeing any defections, according to several party officials.

The campaign’s internal numbers are higher than the public numbers in large part because there are many who have made private commitments to the Clinton campaign but don’t want to say so publicly for the time being, with some likely to wait until the primaries are concluded.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/why-new-york-is-pivotal-for-sanders-and-for-clinton/2016/04/09/8c5601e4-fe8d-11e5-9140-e61d062438bb_story.html

===============

Bernie's latest desperate strategy to win with the Supers now seems even more implausible.

[Lucinda]

1. Interesting!

Thanks much!

[DCBob]

4. Yeah, this was news to me too.

Its a good sign that Hillary's got this!

[DCBob]

6. LOL.. there is nothing but speculation there.

Try again.

[creeksneakers2]

16. Long chain of weak links

More like guilt by association than links.

[morningfog]

3. I don't doubt it.

As has been the case for some time, Bernie's only viable path to the nomination is very very tough- surpass Hillary in the pledged delegate race and secure a majority of the pledged delegates at which point enough supers would honor the proceeds and push him to the nomination.

[JonLeibowitz]

5. I don't think his chance at a nomination are any less now than they've ever been

The nature of the unlikelihood has changed, but he was always extremely unlikely to obtain the nomination. There's still a chance, so he should keep running. In any case, his campaign is about the issues and that alone is worth him continuing the race until July.

[Adrahil]

59. At what point does the general election become more important?

I'm not being snarky, I'm being serious. I heard a good conversation on NPR recently about the importance of getting GE infrastructure up and running by June at the latest. At what point should Bernie decide that the D winning in November is more important than prolonging the inevitable? Yes, the same question would apply to Hillary as well, but at this point she is monumentally unlikely to not be at the least a serious contender.

For the record, I think it should be up to Bernie as to when to back off (at the least), I'm just curious as to what YOU might advise. I find your posts to be frequently quite interesting, even when I disagree.

[surrealAmerican]

71. in June, and that's still two months away.

It could very well be to our advantage to just let the Republicans tear one another apart for as long as possible.

[Adrahil]

77. I don't disagree with that.

I think it's reasonable for Sanders to press forward until at least New York. But if he loses New York, and especially if he loses PA, he has no plausible path. At that point, I think he needs to back off and let Clinton start focusing on setting up the GE infrastructure. If she wins in PA, she may be able to do that regardless of what Sanders decides to do.

But yeah, the more the GOP rips at each other, the better.

[JonLeibowitz]

72. Certainly after the primaries are all over. I'd still wait until after the FBI investigation is done

[Adrahil]

75. I think that might not make sense.

If Sanders were to win New York, that could keep him alive, even if it doesn't really help mathematically. But if he loses, the math starts looking completely untenable. If he continues to press hard even in the face of very unrealistic math, his campaign starts to look like a vanity effort, rather than a real campaign to win the nomination. Until New York, he still has a theoretical path, but if he loses in New York?

I think there is NO chance that Clinton gets indicted. But let's entertain the hypothetical and say she is. Sanders could still get the nomination based on that unlikely incidence, even if he effectively winds down his campaign after New York. I think if she were indicted, HRC would likely have to bow out, and as an officially still active candidate, he'd get the nom.

[JonLeibowitz]

80. I wouldn't bet on it. He isn't the establishment favorite, so his best chance

is to receive as many pledged delegates as possible and hope to cross over as many supers as possible. Any replacement establishment candidate is going to have drawbacks with some but not all so he'll want to be in a position where he'll need to flip over as few supers as possible. I don't know if she'll be indicted either, but given the evidence I have seen I see little reason not to think she hasn't broken the law. That doesn't mean she'll be indicted, because of politics.

If Sanders loses New York he should still stay in the race to keep pressure on Hillary from the left. Just this weekend he issued a challenge to her on Social Security. If he had dropped out on March 15 when the delegate math became very unfavorable for him, then he wouldn't have been in a position to do that. Same for NY, really.

[Adrahil]

83. Well, that's a legitimate point of view, I guess...

But at some point, all he will be doing is to force to address him so she is not seen as fading into the convention and being a weak nominee. It will do Sanders or his followers no good to weaken her in the GE. Ultimately, putting on pressure from the left is not a bad thing, IMO, but I think the focus should remain completely issue focus at that point. But I think there is room for a difference of opinion here on what best serves the party in November. Thanks for your reply. I think it's useful to consider that.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

74. There is no point at which the general election becomes more important.

At least not for those of us who actually mean what we say when we say Hillary Clinton would be a horrible choice.

[Adrahil]

78. Thanks for your (non) contribution. NT

[DisgustipatedinCA]

81. You asked a question. I answered. I didn't answer in the way you liked, but I answered.

Think about what you asked, and then think about why it is you decided to chide me. Whatever your reason, it wasn't because I failed to answer your question.

[Adrahil]

82. If you think it's NEVER better to pivot to the GE, then I think your opinion is worthless.

Clinton may not be preferred candidate, but it is very likely she will be nominee. At some point, it will be virtually impossible for Sanders to win. How does it make sense to not pivot to the GE at that point?

Irrational opinions don't contribute.

[timmymoff]

84. The very thing Sander's supporters fear.

An eventual pivot back to center. A confirmation that our beliefs about recent evolutions was correct. A confirmation that we will get more of the same.

[Adrahil]

86. It's not necessarily about a pivot to the center....

but about building campaign infrastructure and spending campaign dollars building organizations in important states. If the apparent nominee is still having to spend lots of money in primary contests, it makes it harder to prepare organizations for the fall.

[timmymoff]

88. They will manage

they have been doing this for a couple centuries now.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

85. Given these facts, I suggest that in the future, you stipulate that you're only looking for opinion

you agree with. Sure, it would make you look like a tool, but it would at least be honest.

[Adrahil]

87. Not at all. I don't agree with Jon above...

but I found his reply interesting and thought provoking.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

89. Then it's a good thing that your subjectivity does not hold sway on DU.

It's a little too haphazard to be scalable.

[Adrahil]

90. Well then.

Have a happy Sunday.

The Bernie or Bust crowd is of no interest to me, because I consider their position irrational.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

91. Have a good Sunday, Adrahil.

You should know, however, that whether you consider it irrational or not, a measurable percentage of the population feels the same way, and this line of thinking will have some impact on the General.

[imagine2015]

7. Is that Hillary's plan to keep super delegates? Lock them up?

Well, perhaps Bernie and his supporters can help them escape!

[DCBob]

8. Its a "lock" of loyalty...

and belief she is our best candidate to beat the GOP.

[imagine2015]

14. AAAAhhhhhhhh The filthy rich candidate from Wall Street will set us free!

[DCBob]

15. This comment is clueless.

[Fawke Em]

21. And when we walk, then what the hell are you gonna do?

[DCBob]

24. I assume this means you're not voting or writing in third party.

Regardless its remarkable that people like you think making threats like this will result in getting what you want. It reminds me of a child holding their breath so they can force mommy to buy them a toy. I think its time to grow up and realize Hillary is going to be our nominee and she is a hundred times better than the alternative on the opposite side.

[giftedgirl77]

26. Be happy the whiney children went back to their parent's basement.

✌

[Sheepshank]

63. So, is it all rich people that you have so much disdain for?

And could please describe at what point a person's finances are filthy riich that they warrant that designation. How about Susan Sarandon's multi million dollar rich, or how about Ben and Jerry multi million dollar capitalistic rich? Please do tell why we are supposed to accept wholesale filthy rich as anything other than envy on your part.

[FarPoint]

33. Exactly.....

It is that simple.... Loyalty, family, Party commitment. Bernie is just a temporary Hitchhiker of the Democratic Party Bus.. He lacks any commitment.... He's just a foster child by his own choice.

[Red Mountain]

67. A foster child many Loyal Democrats have chosen to adopt.....

You're born into a family. You get to choose your friends.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

9. lol

when the damn breaks

[DCBob]

10. lol

when a person has nothing intelligent to say.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

13. some have no dignity in victory and fight unity with every word

you should me the model for bringing unity to the party

[bkkyosemite]

11. Where is that article on here explaining she is bribing them with money...to vote for her..

I would not put it past her...many of them will be up for election as I understand it.

[DCBob]

12. Good grief.. the lies never end coming from the Bernie clan.

[DemocracyDirect]

19. Denial is strong in this one.

It's already been shown how the Hillary Victory Fund is a slush fund for buying super delegates.

[DCBob]

25. And the lies keep coming.

Amazing!

[DemocracyDirect]

31. Are you calling me a liar?

Clearly you like big money in politics.

[DCBob]

36. Not sure if you are or you aren't but the stuff you posted is a lie.

[DemocracyDirect]

43. What stuff is a lie?

I will post links if you can be more specific.

[DCBob]

44. The stuff you wrote.

[DemocracyDirect]

45. Ridiculous.

You couldn't debate with a toad.

[DCBob]

46. You have nothing dude.

Get lost.

[DemocracyDirect]

47. You are so charming.

It's been a pleasure to hear you croak.

[giftedgirl77]

29. & clearly their campaign is hiring trolls to spread utter nonsense.

keep up the good fight you brave internet warrior.

[DemocracyDirect]

30. Did you just call me a troll?

Am I supposed to alert this?

[giftedgirl77]

34. Welcome to DU.

Known as Democratic Underground not butthurt independent underground.

[bkkyosemite]

79. It did not use the word Bribe but go look for the article on DU from about two days ago.

Money coming from her org to those Supers....I read it here. Not a lie I read it here....

[Cha]

17. Mahalo DCBob

[DesertRat]

18. K&R

[restorefreedom]

20. clinton likely to have bought and paid for a lot more superdelegates than are being reported

fixed it

[Betty Karlson]

22. More blatant efforts to subvert the will of the voters in case Sanders wins most pledged delegates.

The Democratic Party Establishment is fast making itself a relic of bygone times - these shenanigans can only crash into the dustbin of history.

[DCBob]

23. Its sounds to me like its just the exact opposite..

Bernie knows he cant win the majority of the pledged delegates and is now targeting the supers to override the voters choice.

[Betty Karlson]

50. That condition is called "cognitive dissonance"

It can be a good thing, but as they say: too much of a good thing is still pathetic.

[DCBob]

51. For lack of anything intelligent to say you resort to personal insults.

Seems you do that alot.

[Betty Karlson]

52. Really? Calling the sky green and the grass blue is "something intelligent"

but pointing out colourblindness is a personal insult?

Owe-Kay...

[DCBob]

53. In your world I suppose.

[DCBob]

99. Super delegates are a part of the Democratic party nominating process.

Last edited Sun Apr 10, 2016, 04:46 PM - Edit history (1)

Why not report them?? Ignoring them would have been negligent.

[DCBob]

101. If there was that perception then Bernie's campaign should have worked to change that.

It's the candidate's responsibility to manage things like that if the candidate thinks something is unfairly or unjustly being reported.

[Number23]

116. Yep. Nailed it.

[riversedge]

40. Bernie will be in the dustpin of HIStory with all the Pinnochio's he raked up this week.

[Betty Karlson]

49. No: he started something that will last well beyond these primaries.

But I understand that camp Weathervane would like to believe otherwise. Clinton can barely win anything these days - imagine trying to be president with a constant criticism from the left. That would be... impossible. But then: her winning the GE is near-impossible too, with all the voters she has wittingly estranged from her platform.

[Codeine]

60. Sanders isn't going to win more pledged delegates.

In fact only one campaign has discussed the possibility of using supers to cancel out a pledged delegate loss, and that was the Sanders campaign.

[Betty Karlson]

110. Of course he will win more pledged delegates: he will have lots of them after PA and NY

Were you trying to intimate something about unpledged delegates, perhaps?

[Codeine]

111. I worded that poorly.

More pledged delegates than Clinton was what I meant, though admittedly not what I expressed.

In the end she'll have a clear majority of pledged delegates going into the convention.

[Betty Karlson]

112. Without further argument, I find that hard to believe. eom

[Codeine]

113. Fair enough.

I think it's fairly obvious from a mathematical standpoint, but we all have our opinions.

[Betty Karlson]

114. But then there is this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511706936

[B Calm]

27. Well her husband did lock up a lot of black people, so I

believe she probably does have a lot of superdelegates locked up somewhere.

[GreatGazoo]

28. Wishful hearsay

why give this more credence than the "Disqualify and defeat" hearsay ?

[Buns_of_Fire]

32. How much does a pair of SuperDeligates go for these days?

If they're cheap enough, I might buy a couple myself. But they'd have to be pretty cheap -- since they tend to be politicians, I can't see any earthly use for them, except as doorstops or bookends or party favors.

[DCBob]

41. Maybe ask Bernie.. seems he is the one desperately trying to flip them.

[Vinca]

35. A couple of things could happen that would make most supers immediately switch.

You must be keeping your fingers crossed.

[DCBob]

38. Not sure what you are implying but I am not worried in the least about supers switching.

My biggest concern is Bernie being a poor loser and running third party to punish the Democratic Party for not bowing to his "brilliance".

[Vinca]

55. I thought you hated the idea Bernie was running as a Democrat.

If he'd run as a third party we'd be wondering how we were going to cope with President Trump come January. And I'm sure you know what I'm implying.

[DCBob]

57. I dont "hate" Bernie for anything. I more or less admire him..

but I think he is not ready to run against the Republicans or ready to be President.

[riversedge]

37. REC. and Thank you. Great way to start the day

[bahrbearian]

39. Ahh ,Yes, Hillary's Democracy at work.

[DCBob]

42. Looks like its working fine.

The vast majority of Dem voters will end up voting for Hillary and then the vast majority of Supers will do the same and Hillary will be our nominee. I dont see a problem with that at all.

[Surya Gayatri]

48. What? How can that be? Jeff the Political Genius (c) says the Supers are ripe

for switching--they're only waiting for the holy sign from St. Bernard.

[oasis]

73. +1

[MineralMan]

54. That's very likely, really. Many superdelegates

have made no declaration of support for either candidate. Most of those are DNC members from the various states. They're not in the news. They're not really recognizable public figures, so they gain nothing by disclosing their preferences. Those DNC members, however, are all long-time Democratic Party leaders. They have strong loyalty to the Party.

They are more likely to vote for Hillary than Bernie, simply because Bernie isn't a long-time Democratic Party member. He has eschewed membership in the Party for decades. In fact, he has specifically stated many times that he is not a Democrat. People who are strong supporters of the Party, enough to hold leadership roles in that party, are almost all party loyalists.

So, this story is almost certainly correct. Most of the superdelegates who have not announced their preference will go with Hillary. I'm pretty sure of that. My sureness is based on knowing some of the DFL members here in Minnesota.

[MineralMan]

95. Yes, I believe so. At least enough to ratify the

majority. I doubt very, very much that will happen, though. If it does, however, I believe whoever has the majority of pledged delegates will become the nominee. I just happen to believe that will be Hillary Clinton.

Bernie Sanders battle will be to get that majority of pledged delegates. If he does not, there is no chance he will be the nominee.

[SidDithers]

56. DU rec...nt

Sid

[IamMab]

58. Which would explain why, since the Sanders campaign began making an effort with SDs, only a handful

have actually publicly backed Sanders. If the Sanders campaign were making progress on that front, they'd be crowing about it left and right to try and change the narrative.

Instead, they've adopted the childish "We've got a secret list of super-delegates that we can't publish just yet, but believe us, it's yuge!"

[Kentonio]

61. Very much a nothing story.

If they haven't come out for Clinton, then they're waiting to see who wins the pledged delegate count. It's not like they're going to wait until Bernie gets more pledged delegates and then suddenly come out for Clinton, that's nonsensical.

[DCBob]

62. Its something.

In fact if the story was switched we would be seeing "SECRET SUPERS FOR BERNIE!! YUUUUGE!" threads all over the place.

[Kentonio]

64. I don't care what threads you think you'd be seeing, this story logically makes no sense.

[DCBob]

65. It makes total sense..

see this..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1697215

[Kentonio]

66. That added nothing of any sense to the equation.

If the superdegelates who have not declared yet have something to risk or lose by coming out already, then that risk isn't going to be any lower AFTER Bernie wins more pledged delegates. In fact that just makes them look even worse and increase the chance of them being primaried or held to intense scrutiny.

The only thing that makes any sense is that they gave the Clinton campaign an easy answer 'sure, we'll support you in the future' and in reality are waiting to see who actually wins.

[DCBob]

68. Well if Bernie somehow miraculously turns this around and gets the majority by the convention..

then all bets are off. But its simply not going to happen.

[Kentonio]

96. Only 214 delegates in it last time I checked.

Hope you're crossing your fingers and toes before New York and CA come along.

[DCBob]

98. It might as well be 2,014 delegates.

Its over dude.

[Kentonio]

105. Afraid not. When you ignore those deceptive superdelegates

There's still very much a race going on.

[DCBob]

108. A 214 delegate lead is huge lead given delegate allocation..

and the fact there are a several big closed primaries in diverse states coming up. Bernie hasn't done well in states like that up to this point. Hillary is likely to extend her lead significantly by the end of this month making even more improbably for a Bernie comeback.

[Kentonio]

109. It is a big lead, but we've also seen a closing of the polls.

The only sensible thing to do right now is sit back and wait to see what New York delivers. Even a narrow victory for Sanders there would change the shape of the race dramatically.

[Red Mountain]

69. I expect the superdelegates to follow the lead of the people

Otherwise, there will be hell to pay.

[DCBob]

70. They will.

Clinton will have the majority of votes and delegates going into the convention.

[libtodeath]

76. Who cares about the little people after all.

[hrmjustin]

102. Yes I expected her numbers to be higher.

[lmbradford]

103. Reality....

Clinton had 400 SD's before the first vote was cast, so including or even talking about these SD's as relevant is just ignorant. The candidate with the most PLEDGED delegates will get the nomination, as always. All the Sanders people have to do is go out and get those votes. We know there are plenty of delegates left to win to do it. Quit fighting with these people who live in la la land and are trying to discourage us because we are enthusiastic about our candidate. It all works out if we focus on the real task in front of us. Ignore is your friend....

[Surya Gayatri]

106. Kick.

[Gothmog]

107. After Sanders' refusal to raise money for down ballot candidates, I suspect that the OP is correct

Sanders' refusal to be a member of the party will hurt him with super delegates

[Number23]

115. "closing in on 600 overall" Good googly!!!