Bernie Sanders just won his seventh straight victory. Is he unstoppable?

[RiverLover]

The Guardian
4/9/2016

Bernie Sanders just won his seventh straight victory. Is he unstoppable?



His trajectory appears to keep going up while Hillary Clinton’s goes down. Now the big question is what New York will bring

ernie Sanders galloped to a decisive win in cowboy land, the Wyoming caucus. His momentum is impressive and, at this point, it feels like he’s unstoppable. He has come out of nowhere since January with a hard-hitting, liberal message that resonates dramatically with Democrats and Independents.

Wyoming marks his seventh victory in a row (and eighth out of nine), giving him 1,068 delegates to Hillary Clinton’s total of 1,755. The nomination will go to whoever wins 2,383 delegates. He won 56% to 44%, and picked up seven delegates.

With her trajectory downward and his on the rise, anything can happen – especially now that their race to the nomination veers back to the east.

New York will be the first of six populous eastern seaboard states with primaries that have a total of 753 delegates to split. But he needs to win these decisively to gain in delegate count vis-a-vis Clinton.

But if Sanders wins New York, all bets are off in terms of the final outcome, because this would humiliate and rock the Clinton campaign. She served as senator there and has made the state her home.

.......snip.........

National polls show that Sanders would beat Trump or Cruz more handily than would Hillary Clinton in the fall. The contest also represents an interesting barometer – as does the Republic primaries – of the American population.

They have been battered by trade deals that have hollowed out the middle class, costly wars, Wall Street malfeasance, campaign finance corruption and a Congress with trade and social policies that are misaligned with public opinion.

Sanders, like Trump for disaffected Republicans, has presented himself as an outsider who can restore fairness to prosperity on behalf of America’s faltering middle class.


Whether middle America deputizes him to drive the bad guys out of town or not is unclear, but so far he’s delivering one impressive victory after another – and that is no small feat.


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/09/bernie-sanders-wins-wyoming-seventh-state-unstoppable-new-york-primary-next

[virtualobserver]

1. If he wins one more, he just might be.

[RiverLover]

6. NY is a must-win.

Come on New Yorkers, your country needs you!!

[PATRICK]

18. Just intuiting

from her visit to neighboring Rochester NY. Again the pattern. Bill whips up(rather grumpily) a mainly institutional and labor leader audience. Gets quotes. Hillary is filmed at a table talking to what seems to be big donors. of course that is just one network.

The quotes by the chosen audience members are critical. Labor leader- Hillary helped us with jobs as Senator. Afraid of losing what is left of jobs and unions. Really depressed IMHO. Young black girl speaks of how afraid she is of the other side. Hillary can get stuff done. The central campaign meme you expect any supporter to include in their endorsement.

Fear and favors. Is that all? Still? They are gifting Sanders with everything else and circling the wagons, telling them there are nothing but savages outside.

You have to see how the last primary defeat cause what seems to be a mystifying doubling down on what did not work and what lost her support and giving up the 'voter problems' which have gotten worse, not better over time. It is all about falling back on the mammoth and mostly united machinery at the top which seems extremely reliable and 'afraid' of Sanders. Media and money of course. What more do you need in a democracy?
Sanders needs to address the hopes of real New Yorkers. of course his big picture is better and very different, but he will mop up the state by getting to the heart of average New Yorker's real needs. Hillary is all about the gatekeepers of the votes, the big money, the machine. We owe her favors. We should be afraid without her.

She could easily get annihilated without the voter enthusiasm methods she could have, should have, done.It is very plain plan A, discounting the voters rather than the big shots she put back into her corral is still in effect. A challenger thus is discounted totally- still.

[RiverLover]

33. Lots of good insights, thanks.

Fear & favors, just to take one, encapsulates her campaign to a T. It's just so old school, its difficult to see that being effective in such a forward-thinking state. Or maybe that's just the cities.

Her lead has fallen a bit, from +48 to +36. I hope more people start really thinking it through & taking a fuller look at Bernie. Beyond how he's presented by corporate media. They just skewer his image & his viability at every opportunity. Total propaganda for the benefit ultimately of Big Busine$$.

New York seems savvy enough to see through it. I hope. 10 days....

[DrDan]

2. he won and they split the delegates evenly - putting him somewhat further behind

he was better off without the win

but that is just one of those pesky facts-of-life

[morningfog]

8. He needs 56.6% of the remaining pledged delegates.

No change from before. Every day the number doesn't increase is a GOOD day for Bernie.

[DrDan]

11. it went from 56.4% to 56.5% using 538 data

I am sure using a different delegate count could skew results somewhat

And Bernie needs to reduce that number, not hold it unchanged. And a state-win today did not do that.

[morningfog]

13. He needs to ultimately meet that number.

He could, for argument sake, meet or lose a little ground, and go into June 7 needing to hit 56-60. It's not likely he would get that on June 7, but it would not be impossible.

[DrDan]

14. every time he does not meet that number, it goes up

happened today even though he won

the data I used shows it increased 0.1%.

Data you used shows it was unchanged - but go out one more decimal point and check results.

[morningfog]

16. Yes, but that was not my point.

Obviously it is best to always go down. Staying the same is fine. Even it it fluctuates some, up and down, as long at it is not by too much, he's still viable. If it goes up to 65-70%, I would say he is no longer viable. If he can go into June 7 with his needed percent number below 60, he still has a chance. It's a tiny chance, an unlikely chance, but a chance.

[Zira]

21. Hillary isn't viable. 25% of Dem leaning voters say they won't vote for her no matter what.

That's up from 14% a month ago and 7% the month before that. By then end you can expect over 30% won't vote for her no matter what if not higher.

She didn't win the independents who are needed to win the GE. These Dem leaning people owe the DNC nothing and will not rally in Nov. They've already made their decision not to vote for her no matter what.

You better hope Bernie wins because he does have the independents behind him and he is the only one who could pull the numbers to beat Ryan. And the Republican party will be nominating Paul Ryan. Trump and Cruz also didn't get the support they needed and cannot win an election so aren't viable.

Elections are different in 2016 where the majority of voters are independents. The RNC knows this and so is attempting to put in a fix. The DNC will go down in flames if Sanders isn't the nominee. All that will happen is the election fraud means a huge chunk of their base leaves and becomes independents and Ryan wins the GE, which he will win any way if HRC is the nominee. She's already not secured the independents and cant win.

[DrDan]

22. for Bernie to be viable, he has to win the Primary - which is not happening

[Zira]

25. Wrong. He's at this point the only viable candidate at all.

Again, HILLARY DOES NOT HAVE THE DEM LEANING INDEPENDENTS.

She can't win the general election no matter how many delegates she gets or how many primaries she wins. She's non viable no matter who wins the primary.

Her running at this point is only folly. Bernie is the only viable candidate at all. He has the Independents and can take the Dems vote in the general election. If he is not in the general election the Dems cannot win at all. 25% of Dem leaning voters refuse to vote for her no matter what. Most of those are independents. That number is growing sharply every month. Forget it. Hillary CANNOT win. Non viable.

[DrDan]

26. if he does not win the primary, he is not in the GE, hence not viable

[Zira]

27. So the republcans will win at that point. At this point, he the only Democrat who is viable.

Hillary is not viable.

Here's a picture:



Hillary failed to get the Dem leaning independent vote and she now has 25% of the Dem leaning vote who won't vote for her no mater what.
Let me get you a link...
I'm trying to find a link to a nice Dem site where I saw the poll a few days ago.

Here's one link but I don't know what thehill.com is.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/bernie-sanders-leads-hillary-clinton-national-poll
Here is the poll:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article70202867.html

[DrDan]

29. he can only be viable if he gets to the GE - which is not happening

[Zira]

30. He may or may not get to the GE. All it means if he doesn't is there is no viable Dem candidate.

And, you can get used to saying president Ryan.

I should mention that his forecast was securing 56% of the vote in the rest of the caucuses to get him to the Primary. He is reaching that.

[DrDan]

35. and now reaching the closed primaries . . . that 56% is headed upward

[Zira]

31. you're missing the MATH. It was already worked out by the Sanders Campaign.

If he gets 56% across the rest of the elections he will win the primary. All he has to do is keep meeting 56%.

He has a little leeway to get less in some states and still win the primary.

[DrDan]

34. that is correct - I am not missing it - you are missing that he is 212 behind - and unlikely to make

up that difference

then you figure in the supers

nope - not viable

[Zira]

32. Interesting quote about that math:

"If you want to talk about math, the truth is that it is very, very, very unlikely either candidate, either Secretary Clinton or Sen. Sanders, will go into the convention with a majority needed of pledged delegates in order to win," Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said in a CNN interview last week.

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/04/09/bernie-sanders-wins-wyoming-continuing-streak-victories

[Adrahil]

19. He came in BELOW his 538 targets....

In a state that arguable should have been a smashing victory for him.

But the state has barely any delegates. It really comes down to New York. If he doesn't win New York, he's pretty well finished.

But the dude is a scrapper, I'll give him that. I don't think a Clinton victory in New York is a gimme, though I think it'll be tough for Bernie.

[morningfog]

20. I think he'll go on regardless. But NY is huge for both side.

It's really a must win for each side. Hillary has the advantage and is leading, but ten days is a long time when all the focus is there. No other states voting that day, none between now and then. They're will be a dozen mini-dramas over the next week.

We're in the crucible now.

[Adrahil]

23. I think he will too...

But realistically, if he doesn't win New York, he has no shot. He has to win some big delegate prizes and win them big. Even a narrow victory in New York wouldn't be quite good enough, but he might hope that such an upset might propel him to bigger victories in PA and CA. I think Maryland is probably out of reach for him.

[Codeine]

3. One, he didn't win, he tied. Two, NY is about to stop him cold. nt

[polly7]

4. I hope so!!

(Plus: please clone him. )

[RiverLover]

7. +1

We need more Bernies!! More FDRs.

[nc4bo]

5. Go Bernie!! nt

[ViseGrip]

9. Thought it was last 8 of 9?

[RiverLover]

10. The last 7 straight, as in, in a row.

[amborin]

12. K&R the more voters get to know him, the more they want to vote for him

[Tarc]

15. Wyoming is a tie, despite the Sanders camp hysterics. 7 pledged delegates for each candidate

This is the worst he's done in a caucus since Iowa. Is the crown tipping a bit?

[Beacool]

17. The quick answer is yes.

[seabeyond]

24. And fell further behind.

[GreatGazoo]

28. Yahtzee !

[geek tragedy]

36. If he loses NY he has zero path to the nomination nt