Nate just raised Obama's number to 70.3% Obama is soaring! n/t

[amborin]

[flamingdem]

1. Thanks!

[Jazzy_Obama]

2. That's great!

Glad to see nates not giving in to the "media narrative" that romneys surging! It's stupid & aLot of people will have egg on there face come November!

[Democratopia]

3. This election is a constant roller coaster over freaking out and relief!

I don't think my heart can take it much more!

[BlueDemKev]

5. I'm with you!

I don't know HOW I'm going to make it thru the next two weeks. Worst part is we probably won't know who won for at least a day or two after Nov. 6.

[DarthDem]

7. Hm, Not Sure

I have a feeling that the president will be declared the winner on election night. A strong feeling.

[Calypso0956]

13. I hope you are right!!!

This has been a LONG road with all the B/S involved with this election.

I believe the results have been flubbed just to make it seem the repubs have been gaining momentum to encourage more of their kind out to the polls.

Seriously, the only thing Romney has going for him is prejudice and hatred. There are many around with that ignorant way of thinking.

"My parent's were Republican therefore I am Republican".

Most of these people aren't rich, they are poor folks who need gov assistance or their children and grand kids need it.
They cut off their nose to spite their face so to speak.

Damn idiots!

[DarthDem]

17. Sadly, I Agree That This Is True In Many Cases

A shame, a true shame.

[lexw]

23. I agree....

and I posted something similar a few weeks back and got pounded by a couple of DU members for using the "hate" card. But I think it is sadly true that the only power behind Romney is racial hate—for the non-billionaires, anyway.

[Left Coast2020]

33. I just saw a post on here on Ipsos poll claiming Obama landslide with....

322 RV to Rmoney with 207. Now that is first time the word "landslide" has been used here in awhile.

[rivegauche]

9. Oh lawd, you and me both

I cannot WAIT until it's all over. The stress over the roller-coaster is intense.

[onecent]

25. I could handle the roller coaster, IF I JUST FELT THAT ROMNEY COULDN'T STEAL the presidency.

Seems like the republicans did a pretty good job of it with Bush and those 8 years crippled us
as no other presidency I can remember.

I want to wake up tomorrow and have it be the day after the election...and I still don't trust Romney.

And I wish someone would address WHY we never hear any repercussion for the illegal voting
fraud going on in Florida and Ohio...One guy even got caught. Is someone in the democratic party addressing these issues. Wrong dates on voting mailers....now Florida people are getting illegal letters that say they are not registered or are registered in error and they are found out to be fraud.
Just wish someone would get this stuff stopped...then I, too, could rest.

But I'll just keep on keepin' on...like all of us...
Good luck to President Obama.

[lucca18]

21. I know what you mean!

One day I am feeling great about the election and President Obama winning, and then I see some of these polls and I freak out!

[JiminyJominy]

4. Nice

Nice to see some good news today. I think this guy knows his stuff and often has access to polls before others do.

[graham4anything]

6. All Mitt is doing is bluffing. He cannot win unless we get demoralized and stay home

keep positive
keep focused
keep your eye on the prize

all else is a distraction

to quote the old sci-fi "Village of the damned"
"You must think of a brick wall
a brick wall
brick wall

never let them see fear or any emotion in your eyes

just think of a brick wall"

[Bake]

8. Two more weeks, people!! We're in the home stretch!

We cannot let up now.

PEDAL TO THE METAL, BABY!!



Bake

[april]

10. please let it be so...

[DemKittyNC]

11. Awesome!

Just very, very AWESOME!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

12. Last time they said it was neck and neck...

Think of it as a lying track announcer talking to a radio audience.

Aaaand, their off!!! McCain comes out strong while Obama stumbles out of the gate and recovers late, Obama catches up but loses his momentum and they're fighting for position as McCain surges ahead! They're coming around the clubhouse turn and it's Obama ahead by a nose but McCain is gaining, into the final stretch and it's McCain, Obama, McCain, Obama and at the wire it's.....Obama!

(And then treated as an aside,...) By 192 lengths....

Final results: 365 to 173.

McCain LOST by more than he won and the beltway media never accepted Obama as the "real" president, much less use the word "mandate". Instead, they paraded an endless stream of Republicans on the Sunday talk shows who were treated as authorities on how best to proceed after what they considered to be a setback for the nation.

[bench scientist]

15. agreed , the media have a vested interest in making it a close horse race too.

I think the President will win and get 310-330 EVs. Hopefully he has long coat tails too. (For me it will take some of the sting of having supreme idiot Paul Broun as my congressmen).

[Spitfire of ATJ]

18. You notice when Romney was way behind he had his big money donors walking out on him....

Media ad buys plummeted and suddenly the media reported him surging in the polls.

[wakeoftheflood]

19. yep

Keen observation that.

[Richard D]

14. I wonder why . . .

Obama is losing ground at Intrade. Not a lot, but a couple points since the debate started last night.

[speedoo]

16. Don't worry about that.

Someone was gaming it, placed a big bet on Romney this morning to drive Obama's number down.

[tiredtoo]

22. That explains it well

I noticed the same thing after the first or second debate. And consequently watched it climb back up to 60 +

[Richard D]

24. Thanks.

[BigDemVoter]

20. Wow!

And Nate Silver is really almost the only one I really trust, so thank you!

[ReallyIAmAnOptimist]

26. But WTF is going on at InTrade?

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

This smells fishy to me...
some of Mittens friends must be meddling in this like a futures market?

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

29. I don't totally understand Intrade...

but it seems to me that one person with $100,000 could totally game the numbers.

[amborin]

30. re: Intrade

"Intrade is a market, and with deep enough pockets someone could manipulate that market. Given the money that's been flowing in this campaign, it's not a huge stretch to imagine someone could be buying up Romney shares just to drive the narrative in comments like yours above. It would be as effective as advertising dollars, I bet. Besides, if it works out, you get your money back and more! With that thinking, Nate's "real money" factor does't really apply.

Bookies, however, are harder to manipulate. For them, this is all very real money. If you check the odds at http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidentia... you will see that they currently give Obama decimal odds of about 1.4, which by my math is pretty close to 70%. "

someone's post on nate silver's blog

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

31. That makes sense....larger "betting pool" on the gambling sites (nt)

[demwing]

27. 72.4% in the "Now-Cast"

and while Obama's chance of winning % goes down 2% on the "Nov 6 Forecast," his EV total goes up by 2 points.

[aletier_v]

28. DOWN GOES ROMNEY!!!

man I like typing that.
I tempted to shout it out across this shopping mall.

DOWN GOES ROMNEY!!"!

[dsharp88]

32. Lowered it back to 68.1 tonight, but debate bump not figured in yet.

I expect this will go to 75 in the coming days when that kicks in.