Early Voting NC Day Five: Young Voters Are Psyched - Age 18-24 Turnout Up 39.7%

[WI_DEM]

(From a Daily Kos diary):

There is a powerful myth deeply engrained in the minds of the pundits that swarm America's cable television screens.

That myth is that young voters are somehow not as enthusiastic about voting in 2012 as they were in 2008, and that college students in particular are just going to sit around in their dorm rooms and play Halo 4 (to be released on election day) rather than vote.

This myth, at least in North Carolina, is directly contradicted by the facts. The hard early voting numbers say that far from decreasing, there is a distinct surge above and beyond 2008 in early turnout among young voters.

What do the facts say?

Well, in In-Person One-Stop Early Voting turnout is up by 30.4% for voters age 18-29 as a whole. But among the very youngest voters - age 18-24, turnout is up by even more - 39.7%. For the population as a whole, turnout is up by 32.9%.

What we see is very interesting. The spike in college-aged voters is clearly evident. The rate of increased turnout above 2008 is highest for college-age voters, until you get to senior citizens. In between, for voters age 25-29 and for middle aged voters generally, the increase is not as strong. And then of course are the seniors. Part of the increase in senior voting is from White Republicans, who are older than the general population. But part of the increase also comes from increased turnout among older White Democrats and Minorities.

But back to the young people - what is perhaps even more impressive about the increase in turnout among college-aged voters is that UNC-Chapel Hill, Duke, NC-State, and presumably some other universities have been on Fall Break during at least part of the early vote period (according to commenters kayak58 and dean4ever, among others). So, many students were not even in-state, much less on campus!

If there is any age group that can be called "unenthusiastic" about voting, it's not young voters - and most certainly not the youngest of the young voters (college students). It's middle-aged voters. But still, voting is up at least to some extent among all age categories.

College-aged voters are clearly very enthusiastic about voting in North Carolina. Turnout is also up among voters age 25-29, although not by nearly so much. Because most of these voters do not live on college campuses, and because many have recently moved, it can be harder for campaigns to find them and turn them out.

These young voters are neither likely voters nor unlikely voters; they are actual voters. Further, I'll venture to guess that almost none of them have landlines, all of them have cell phones, and CNN did not think to ask them what they thought of the debate last night.

Young voters are of critical importance, especially in North Carolina, where President Obama won 74% support from voters age 18-29 in 2008 (so the exit polls tell us).

For full report and colorful charts click here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/23/1148329/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-5-Young-Voters-Are-Psyched-Age-18-24-Turnout-Up-39-7

[Historic NY]

1. Most Excellent news....the voters Gallop & pollers overlook new fresh ones.

[JRLeft]

2. Hopefully we can steal this state.

[LisaL]

3. What in the world do you mean by that?

It's wasn't Romney's to begin with. Obama won it last time.

[JRLeft]

4. I should have been more clear, because Romney has led consistently in the polls.

It would be an upset.

[Arugula Latte]

8. Actually I thought there were several polls showing Obama with a lead (last month).

[Comrade_McKenzie]

5. Kudos to my generation. nt

[wildeyed]

6. Thanks for posting the NC threads every day!

I don't get to Kos much, but I am enjoying the updates.

[LonePirate]

7. That headline ignores the most important data in the article

155,602 people voted on Monday in NC, compared to 146,425 on the same Monday in 2008. Obama received an estimated 1,507 fewer votes than on the same Monday in 2008, while Romney received an estimated 10,684 more votes.

I appreciate the optimism but the actual raw numbers suggest we are going to lose NC by a few points.

[LisaL]

9. Only if general election holds for him.

But it's quite possible his supporters are voting early.
So there might not be as many left on the election day.

[mnhtnbb]

10. I voted on campus today at UNC--and yeah, I file for early social security in December--

here's my description: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251168572