2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWe may be about to witness the end of Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.
If he can't win Michigan, his candidacy will completely collapse.
yourout
(7,532 posts)If they end up with a brokered Convention we may end up having to battle Christy or Rubio instead of Romney.
The best scenario is Romney getting the nomination after a bloody battle that leaves him easily beatable.
A Santorum win probably means a brokered Convention and a much tougher foe in the General.
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)A brokered convention is NOT going to result in a "White Knight" candidate, because the fact that the Nominating process has failed is going to scare away the very same White Knights who will aspire to run on their own in 2016 and won't want to take a fall for the GOP in 2012. A broker Convention will be an admission of failure and whomever ends up getting nominated will be damaged goods with little time to gain the support (and financial backing) of those favoring which ever candidates DIDN'T win.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)that the current crop of losers have been dragging out of each other's closets, and thus may be able to win support from a relieved base.
KharmaTrain
(31,706 posts)Remember, the rushpublican convention is in August...less than three months from election day. Whomever is the nominee will have to have a full-blown national campaign in place the day after...there's precious little time to build a team unless one's already in place (at the cost of one of the losing candidates). Not gonna happen...thus a brokered convention would be nothing more than the buying and selling of delegates until one of the current clowns out buys the other. Whomever wins leaves the convention with a bitterly divided party.
It's so telling that when you ask a "conservative" who their dream candidate is, they don't come up with a name other than some reincarnation of St. Raygun....
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)That leaves exactly 67 days until the election. Not a lot of time to get things ready - to produce a ground game and a solid organization in the more important states.
Cosmocat
(14,572 posts)Bush, the little pinhead in Minnesota all they want, but unless the economy implodes or there is some kind of major national security problem, no of these people are going to show up two months out and beat BO - an incumbent who people like.
beyurslf
(6,755 posts)Any of the people we might not want to face from a brokered convention would also never want to run from one either. They will all wait til 2016
libodem
(19,288 posts)Jeb needs time for the bad name to fade a little more.
vaberella
(24,634 posts)There is a timeline as to when you have to put your name on the ballots in all state. Even if one of those guys wanted to run and Rubio has no experience to really run and Christie's gusto is very limited---it's unlikely they would ever come around just because of the ballot listings. Even Obama's name was under question for one state.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)They think these guys are so strong, but they aren't. Jeb isn't either. A brokered convention is not a god send to the GOP it shows how pitifiul they are and the lack of strong candidates. Then you have the party turning to one of the people who didn't even run? How do you think many supporters of Romney, Santorum and even Gingrich will feel?
RKP5637
(67,112 posts)onenote
(42,759 posts)I know I've stopped. Will a loss in Michigan signal the 'collapse' of Romney's campaign? Maybe. But maybe not. I doubt anyone knows for sure. Certainly there isn't anyone out there that I know of that has accurately predicted the ups and downs of the GOP primary process.
A loss in Michigan won't change a thing. This nomination battle is going to the very bitter end and losing or winning Michigan doesn't change the outlook much for Romney.
denbot
(9,901 posts)If the republicans hadn't governed like such complete assholes I would (almost) feel sorry about R-Money's soon to be buckshot neutering. Even with an embassingly wounded candidate, the powers that be will keep R-Money alive to minimize the damage to the down ticket candidates.
niyad
(113,552 posts)Obamacare
(277 posts)Its been said they he had a huge lead in those who have already cast their ballots. I hope Dems come out and support Satantorum today.
vaberella
(24,634 posts)zipplewrath
(16,646 posts)Think of it as a disaster filled with opportunity. It would be a bit like bankruptcy. It will be destructive, but Romney may also see the opportunity to restructure. It's not like Santorum will have some insurmountable lead, and the Romney folks may just figure "it's a whole new race". He'll have some encouragement too from those moderate GOP forces who don't want to see a Santorum race in the general. They may not care by then if Romney wins, just that Santorum isn't the top of the ticket.
It will be the end of his "inevitable" approach to campaigning, or the "most electable" slogan. But it could merely start a new slogan of "I'm the sane one".
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)And his margin (like in other states this time around) will be well below what it was in 2008.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think we want Romney to be the nominee but Santorum to do just well enough to keep the clown show going for awhile longer to force Mittens further right and to make even more dumb statements to give us lots of stuff for ads down the road.