ARG Poll of NH: Romney 49% (-1) Obama 47% (+1)

[WI_DEM]

**Remember this isn't the only poll of NH out there. Yesterday UNH Poll came out giving Obama a +9 (51-42)lead in the state.


Interview dates: October 19-22, 2012

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?

New Hampshire
Obama Romney Other Undecided

Likely voters 47% 49% 1% 3%

Democrats (29%) 93% 4% - 3%
Republicans (35%) 9% 87% 1% 3%
Independents (36%) 48% 48% 2% 2%

Men (48%) 44% 53% 1% 2%
Women (52%) 51% 45% 2% 2%

18 to 49 (58%) 50% 46% 1% 3%
50 and older (42%) 44% 53% 1% 2%

Landline (78%) 46% 51% 1% 2%
Cell Phone (22%) 52% 41% 1% 6%

Oct 9-11 46% 50% 1% 3%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NH12.html

[Jennicut]

1. It was 50 to 46 last time. ARG skews very conservative.

Is Romney losing support in NH? The UNH poll was higher then their last poll too.

[WI_DEM]

2. Right! there poll is showing a gain for Obama. It's the trend more than anything.

[Maximumnegro]

8. It's BS. Notice that ARG comes out w/ polls

right after the debate showing Romney close. They did the same after the first debate. ARG is one of the narrative pushers with a second tier reputation. I wouldn't believe these at all.

[TexasCPA]

3. ARG has Obama up 2 in NV

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[WI_DEM]

5. Yep, I had just posted that as well. Good!

[NYC Liberal]

4. Even Ras has Obama +1 in NH

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president

[kansasobama]

6. Will change after last night debate

[woolldog]

9. ARG was off by 4.5 points in NH in 2008

They overpredicted Obama's margin by 4.5, fwiw.

UNH was the most accurate in NH in 2008 and they came out with a poll yesterday saying Obama is winning by 9.