Hillary's delegate lead shrinks! March 16th it was 319 elected delegates. On April 7th 212 delegates

[imagine2015]

April 7, 2016
Another Path to Victory for Bernie Sanders
by Doug Johnson Hatlem

Update: this morning the New York Times delegate count included +31 from Washington with an asterisk next to the total. A previous version of this article included +5 for Sanders in Arizona from the original AP delegate count. As expected, now that the results certified Tuesday have been included in the AP totals, Sanders has gained three delegates in Arizona; Clinton has lost two. An additional delegate shifted from the Sanders column to the Clinton column overnight somewhere, it seems. I have not yet figured out where. This means that the race currently stands at +212 delegates for Clinton. On March 16, her lead stood at +319.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/07/another-path-to-victory-for-bernie-sanders/

[ViseGrip]

1. IT'S HAPPENING!!!

[Squinch]

2. Seriously, you guys are absurd in your stubborn insistence on ignoring the math.

Including the Supers, Hillary needs six hundred something delegates to be nominated. Bernie needs twelve hundred something. Look ahead. Find the place where he makes that up. See? It isn't there.

(I know you are going to tell me New York, and California and the magical flipping super delegates and whatever else. I won't argue with you. I'll just leave you to your senseless spinning till you catch up with reality.)

[imagine2015]

6. The "Super Delegates" are not guaranteed or pledged to any candidate. They are free to switch.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

9. They have a name for the winners in the world!

$hillary and her supporters sure do not look like they understand

[JudyM]

20. Ooh yeah deacon blues! Love a good Steeley Dan random line!

[IdaBriggs]

13. Yes, yes, those super delegates are bought and paid for, so they WON'T

be switching over. Hillary OWNS THEM AND THEIR SOULS. They signed an oath in BLOOD, dammit!

DO NOT LOOK BEHIND THE CURTAIN!

Superdelegates Might Not Save Hillary Clinton, FiveThirtyEight, February 12, 2016 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/superdelegates-might-not-save-hillary-clinton/

(snip)

Unlike elected delegates, superdelegates are unbound to any candidate even on the first ballot. They can switch whenever they like, and some of them probably will switch to Sanders if he extends his winning streak into more diverse states and eventually appears to have more of a mandate than Clinton among Democratic voters.

Clinton knows this all too well; it’s exactly what happened to her in 2008 during her loss to Barack Obama.

(snip)

...but there were also several dozen superdelegates who switched from Clinton to Obama, including some high-profile ones such as Rep. John Lewis of Georgia and former Vice President Walter Mondale.

So, give up all hope, Bernie supporters. The only thing you can do is work harder or surrender!

[Politicalboi]

3. It's gonna shrink a lot more this month

[grasswire]

4. and the Clintons are throwing shiny objects at the media!!

Bill nearly blew a gasket today.

[CoffeeCat]

5. Nevada may eventually change

It will be interesting to see what happens with the caucus states as they move through their County, District, State and finally, National Conventions.

More than 100 gained in delegates for Bernie.

So exciting to see those numbers move.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

7. Ouch

that Berns

[lostnfound]

8. It's actually probably 4 delegates better than that...

Nevada's pickup isn't included in that.. It still shows 20 vs 15, but the county convention flipped enough that Bernie should be gaining at least a couple delegates from Hillary -- a gain of 2 delegates reduces the gap by 4.

[jillan]

10. But that doesn't include her 52,312 superdelegates silly! #Math!

[timlot]

11. They both started at 0 pledged delegates...

and she ran up the scoreboard. Now its the forth quarter, time is running out and Sanders is trying to make a comeback by dinking and dunking down the field. He needs a hail Mary, but Clinton is in a prevent defense.

[Land of Enchantment]

26. Ummmm, in case you didn't hear--California is going to allow the indies to vote

in the dem primary and there are 475 non-pledged at stake. Bernie is going to clean her clock there.

[paulthompson]

12. Maryland

Note that a Maryland poll came out today showing Sanders down by 15 points, 55 to 40. Hatlem is estimating Sanders will lose Maryland by 25 points, yet Sanders is already doing better than that. And as we've seen in state after state, his numbers keep going up as the election date nears.

Based on recent polls, I think Hatlem is being too pessimistic with the remaining April primaries. But he also has some over-optimistic numbers after that, in my opinion, like having Sanders win big in Kentucky. If Sanders does well in the rest of April, the numbers can be adjusted for all the rest of the primaries to give Sanders a very realistic chance of winning the majority of pledged delegates.

Also, we've seen in Nevada that Sanders gained three delegates and Clinton lost two because not enough of her people showed up in a later event. What if the same happens in the other caucus states? A couple more delegates here and there adds up. That's exactly what happened with Obama vs. Clinton back in 2008, because then, like now, Clinton's supporters lacked enthusiasm to show up at all the caucus meetings in sufficient numbers.

[oasis]

14. Don't look now but Bernie's running out of states to catch up.

[SidDithers]

15. On March 8, it was +212 delegates...

A month, and 14 primaries, have gone by, and Bernie hasn't gained any ground.

Sid

[imagine2015]

16. That when she had the conservative Republican south, by far her strongest region.

Of course, she will not carry south if she is the candidate.

Obama couldn't.

In fact, if she's the candidate she will not carry the south, north, east or west.

She's a weak and badly damaged candidate.

[paulthompson]

17. Regarding the superdelegates...

For those who think superdelegates will save Hillary, Bill Clinton is a superdelegate and recently said that if Sanders wins a majority of the pledged delegates, he will vote for Sanders! Think about that. Even her husband would switch!

[Sheepshank]

21. I'm thinking real hard......................nope, not happening n/t

[DrDan]

24. the important part is " . . . if Sanders wins a majority . . . "

has to win 57.2% to do that

[Bill USA]

18. Delegate count: Hillary won: 1280, super: 469, tot: 1749; Sanders won: 1030, super: 31, Tot: 1061

needed for Nomination: 2382

Hill needs: 633
Sanders needs: 1,321


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[imagine2015]

19. Why are you including delegates that are not pledged to Hillary or Bernie?

They are free to vote for any candidate including on the first ballot.

You didn't know that?

[SoLeftIAmRight]

22. tell us another story - please

tell us about her trip to bosnia

[Land of Enchantment]

27. You get an F in math. The superdelegates do not vote until it goes to the convention. You cannot pad

totals because they have not yet voted and they CAN and WILL change teams. Been around politics long?

[DrDan]

23. looks to me like 250 as of 6:14 this evening

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-mini-super-tuesday-democratic-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37666687

[strategery blunder]

28. A lot of delegate trackers aren't counting all of WA's delegates.

Some delegate trackers still only have 25 delegates for Bernie, 9 for Hillary coming from WA.

However WA has 101 pledged delegates to give.

Technically these delegates are allocated at follow-up caucus conventions (which is how Bernie recently gained delegates in NV--Hillary's precinct delegates didn't show up at the later county/LD conventions). However it is possible to estimate them ahead of time, as the media customarily does for states like IA and NV.

If the media applied the same extrapolation to WA's delegates, based upon the initial caucus results, Bernie would have about 73 and Hillary about 28. That would almost certainly turn out to be correct within 2 delegates. Most delegate trackers, however, have not done this for some reason.

The ones that do would show Bernie within around 212. The ones that don't...well that's probably where you're getting your 250 number from.

(I live in WA state, so not having our results "counted" in the national delegate trackers is quite annoying to me.)

[GreatGazoo]

25. "Inconceivable !"

[imagine2015]

29. Conceivable!