New poll: Sanders cuts Clinton's lead in half in Maryland

[paulthompson]

I just checked Real Clear Politics, and I see one relevant new poll today:

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary

Wash Post/Univ. of Maryland
Clinton 55, Sanders 40
Clinton +15

This is good news for Sanders, because there was onlly one previous poll in Maryland, done three weeks ago, which gave Clinton a 33 point lead (61 to 28). This continues the trend we've seen in nearly every state (outside the South, which is done voting) of Clinton starting with huge leads and Sanders cutting into them more and more as the election draws closer. I call it the "Sanders late surge trend."

Of the five states that vote on April 26, it is assumed that Clinton will do best in Maryland, due to the large Black population there, and her better numbers with the Black vote.

Here are stats on the percentage of the Black population in upcoming races for comparison. New York votes on April 19 and the others vote on April 26:

New York: 16
Maryland: 30
Delaware: 21
Pennsylvania: 11
Connecticut: 10
Rhode Island: 6

In fact, Maryland may be the most favorable state demographically for Clinton out of all the remaining states. If Sanders can keep it close there, his numbers in the other states should be even better.

[elleng]

1. It's a great trend,

seems to have been occurring almost anywhere, and very pleased to see it's happening 'here,' in Maryland!

P.S., Martin O'Malley will be on The Rachel Maddow Show toNIGHT, Thursday.
at 9PM ET on MSNBC!
‪#?HoldStrong‬

[oldandhappy]

2. good news Thank you

[paulthompson]

3. By the way

Out of the next six states, Maryland is the only one which allows early voting. So that's another reason why it's probably Clinton's best state.

[Punkingal]

4. Maryland is also "Southern" in a way.

At least I have always heard that. Certainly more progressive than many southern states, but still has a southern flavor and heritage.

[On the Road]

5. It *Is* South of the Mason-Dixon Line

and a former slave state.

[paulthompson]

6. yeah

I think one can make an argument that Sanders just doesn't do well with Southerners in general. He's almost a caricature of a "Yankee." Look at the Larry David impressions of him, and his heavy New York accent and such. Clinton comes across as more generic (and that fits with her having three home states).

Luckily for Sanders, all the Southern states have voted already, except for Kentucky, and arguably West Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland, depending on what your definition of the South is. Polls already have him beating her easily in West Virginia.

Anyway, to have Sanders only down by 15 in Maryland with three weeks to go is very encouraging to me.

[Punkingal]

11. I live in MN now, and have lived all over the place as an adult, but I grew up in Tennessee.

I do think he has a problem with Southerners in general, but no more of a problem than John Kerry did, or some other Dem nominees in the past. It's just different in the south. People are more clannish, not open so much to "outsiders" even though southern hospitality is real, it's just good manners and on the surface. One can only get so close, and no closer. Southerners despise condescending behavior more than anything, and expect it to be there even when it isn't.

[paulthompson]

7. Clinton supporters?

Where are the comments from the Clinton supporters on this?

The two latest national polls putting Sanders tied or into the lead, I've heard "outliers."

The latest poll putting Sanders six points behind in Pennsylvania I've heard "outlier."

The two latest polls putting Sanders 12 and 10 points behind in New York I've heard "outliers."

The latest tracking poll putting Sanders tied with registered Democrats I've heard "outlier."

So I'm wondering if this is another "outlier."

[Motown_Johnny]

8. I wonder how the Baltimore area will react to Bill's speech in PA?

Not well I would think.

[paulthompson]

9. Why?

What did he say?

[Motown_Johnny]

10. Here is a link to another thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1673293

all will be answered there