How well does HRC have to do in NY to remain credible?

[Ken Burch]

It's her most recent "home state"...If she loses there, or just barely wins, what as you see it does that do to her campaign?

As people here see it, what support level, in voter percentage, does she absolutely have to take in NY?

[Fumesucker]

1. In political news: Clinton comes in second in NY Dem primary while Sanders finishes next to last

She will still be the only credible candidate when Sanders gives his first State of the Nation speech.

[Kalidurga]

2. She needs to be at least 10 points ahead.

I think she will lose by that much.

[Lil Missy]

3. She could lose New York and she'd still win the nomination. n/t

[reformist2]

15. Yes. Because #Math. And #Inevitability. And because #ShesSoQualified.

[Cheese Sandwich]

4. She has to win big. At least something bigger than Bernie's win in Wisconsin

Bernie won Wisconsin by 14 points. New York is even more favorable to Hillary because independents are not allowed to vote in primaries and her core voters are mostly Democratic Party loyalists.

Bernie won his home state with 86% of the vote.

Hillary should be able to easily get at least 60% of the vote in New York otherwise she's going to look like a huge loser.

[Firebrand Gary]

6. You're good at comedy!

[leftynyc]

12. LOL - in whose eyes?

The eyes of those who can't do simple math?

[Cheese Sandwich]

13. Math has nothing to do with it. I'm telling you how she can avoid being humiliated in her home state

[leftynyc]

14. She's going to win NY

And she'll still be over 200 pledged delegates ahead when she does. Simple math.

[Cheese Sandwich]

16. She's already more than 200 pledged delegates ahead. If she loses New York maybe Biden will jump in.

[leftynyc]

17. No - I don't think Biden

or anyone else will jump in. And I think people need to be reminded that she won NY in 2008 also. She's very popular here.

[GreatGazoo]

5. Within 4% but the MSM will prop her up to the bitter end

[grasswire]

7. Heilemann and Halperin say she's very badly damaged if she doesn't win NY.

I believe "toast" is the word they used.

[PATRICK]

8. Because Sanders is so

opposed by the "establishment" that it would be more important to win than to come close. No one is going to state the obvious unless he wields a knockout punch. Losing close will drive HRC up a wall but it draws out the struggle done the road. She needs to win by five to put Sanders back down as terrible a performance as that would be. Sanders needs a stronger win than Michigan to send her down for the credibility count.

Every election is different. We don't have suppression or cheating or crossovers. We do have effective party machines and organizations in the tank, so to speak for Clinton. That is a powerful advantage with all the rest of the media bias and Wall Street favor. But this can be a maverick state for a better candidate and change. I think some of the same dynamics can simply switch on and "confound" the experts. The debate may actually make a big difference and Sanders cannot afford to let himself be victimized in any unfair way even if such things have backfired often with his less than politic rival.

It is crucial with the stacked and besieged party leadership trapped with Clinton that he keep actually winning big Dem states. More than delegate count this would give the poor judgment of the party leadership no way out except acknowledging Sanders- or a brokered convention, since the GOP is possibly doing one itself- the endgame of two poorly performing institutions. Obama's path was made easier because the leadership more readily split off to back his cause. He didn't have to beat Clinton in all the later states.

[jfern]

9. If Bernie wins a majority of New York's 62 counties, that will be bad for her

[highprincipleswork]

10. As to "credible", if you follow consistency in action and word, she's not credible now.

I don't trust her to look after my interests in any way, and that is backed up with plenty of proof about both her and Bill.

[mhatrw]

11. 50%. If she can't make it there, she can't make it anywhere. nt