getting seasick. Rasmussen shows Obama slipping (Monday tracking)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

I know...who cares what those nuts say

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Romney 45% Obama 43%...
Paul 43% Obama 41%
Obama 45% Santorum 43%
Obama 49% Gingrich 39%.

[WI_DEM]

1. I'll take it seriously if other more independent pollsters find a similar trend.

[Jon Ace]

19. Is Gallup independent enough?

Has Romney over Obama by 4 points...

Yikes.

[JoePhilly]

2. Rasmussen always does this ...

They always drag Obama down ....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[grantcart]

3. simple solution, stop wasting your time on Rasmussen

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. unfortunately....they were the only ones besides Pew who had 2008 predicted on the nose. Just sayin.

[grantcart]

12. they only got close right before the election. This year PPP has been the most accurate according to

the comparisons I have seen. They also have more complete information, more regular polling and, more detailed tabs and an interesting tweet line;

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. thanks GC...love twitter. Me and McCain..haha nt

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Not true...

Obama won 53-46 (rounding) over McCain in 2008.

Some polls done within days of the election:

Marist: Obama 52, McCain 43 (+2)
Battleground: Obama 52, McCain 47 (-2)
Rasmussen: Obama 52, McCain 46 (-1)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 52, McCain 44 (+1)
FOX News: Obama 50, McCain 44 (=)
NBC: Obama 51, McCain 43 (+1)
CBS: Obama 51, McCain 42 (+2)
Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 53, McCain 46 (=)
ABC News/Wash Post: Obama 53, McCain 44 (+2)
CNN: Obama 53, McCain 46 (=)
Pew: Obama 52, McCain 46 (-1)

You can view the finals here.

As you can see, all those polls were within 1 or 2 points of the final results. CNN and Ipsos were right on the money with their final poll (53-46), while FOX, believe it or not, got the margin right, but the overall vote for each candidate was off.

In the end, most polls were extremely accurate. Obama's margin was seven points. Factor in the margin of error, and each one of these polls could theoretically make a claim they were correct in their polling, since every result falls within the MOE.

That's not to say some polls weren't off. Reuters had Obama winning by 11, as did Gallup, but I'd say most those polls were accurate enough to make a call that Obama would win the election even before a vote was cast.

More importantly, the average of those polls, by RCP, was...52.1 44.5.

Only .4 off his total vote (down to full numbers, Obama won 52.9 to 45.7 for a margin of 7.2%).

Currently, Obama's lead in the RCP average over Romney is 4.8 - so, roughly, three points off his total in '08.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

20. Thanks, glad to see your last line is true. Not that it really matter but here's my poll link

http://race42012.com/2008/11/06/poll-accuracy-in-the-race-4-2008/

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com ).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline [phone])*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN/Opinion Research (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX News/Opinion Dynamics (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Washington Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/NY Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

[Drunken Irishman]

4. As I said in my election refresher course a couple weeks ago...

Time for an election refresher course...

Don't ever look at just one poll. Polls ebb and flow - especially daily tracking polls.

Take Gallup, which, last week, showed Romney up 4. Now it shows Obama and Romney tied.

You can view the most recent Obama versus Romney polls here.

Adding that Rasmussen poll, Romney will lead in only one poll going back to earlier in the month. It's clearly an outlier and should be taken as such. Until every other poll starts mirroring that result, it's meaningless. Right now, Obama leads nationally. One poll doesn't change that.

[grantcart]

5. Also we are 6 months into the Republican campaign against the President and they are squandering

their resources.

The President is gathering his resources and holding back until he gets one on one.

You don't want to start to far ahead because when it tightens you are perceived as losing momentum and

Finally it is not a national poll but an electoral college competition and you want to push the campaign into areas where the Republicans are spending money defending places that they should own. Romney spending millions in MI, a state he is unlikely to win in the GE is a classic example of how the Republicans are throwing away millions on states they aren't going to be competitive in at the GE.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. thanks...just took your course. I broke rule 2. All those good rules aside, I don't want

it to be close enough for any polls, however skewed, to ever show Romney ahead, ever. :&gt

[rufus dog]

6. Expect Rasmussen to be tighter than most other polls until the Monday before the election

Then the bias will be eliminated so he can claim his polling is accurate.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. Ok, that explains it..thanks. since I knew they were exactly right the days before 2008 nt

[sinkingfeeling]

7. Daily tracking polls have very little value in my humble opinion.

[On the Road]

8. Ron Paul Beating Obama 43-41....

Yeah, OK. Just keep that comin'.

[aaaaaa5a]

14. I love polls.

But I am becoming less and less a fan of the 3 day tracking polls. I mean seriously, wasn't Obama up by almost 10 pts against Romney just 2 days ago. And now today according to the same poll he trails Ron Paul?


I'm not sure 3 day tracking polls are as strong and reliable indicator compared to the more solid standard polls done on a weekly or monthly basis.



BTW... The 3 day Gallup poll gives you the same wild everyday swings too.

[timlot]

15. Ron Paul Really!!!

Any poll that shows Ron Paul beating Obama loses all credibility with me.

[Samantha]

16. Here is a link to Real Clear Politics' latest polling reflecting results from several pollsters

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html


Sam

[DCBob]

17. me too.. these polls are a bit inconsistent to say the least.

but the general overall trend is good for the President.

[Arkana]

21. It's Rasmussen, and all of those polls leave nearly 10-15% undecided.

He's a shitty pollster.