The percentage of remaining delegates Hillary needs to clinch the nomination just got smaller

[bigtree]

...% Sanders needs got bigger (a trend which, barring a sizable Sanders upset in one of the remaining majors, is expected to increase as the rest of the election plays out).


SANDERS’ BIG WISCONSIN WIN BRINGS IN FEW DELEGATES: NBC News’s First Read crew does the math and concludes that Sanders gained no ground:

He outspent Clinton over the Wisconsin airwaves by nearly a 3-to-1 margin, beat her by 14 percentage points, 57%-43%, but only picked up a net gain of just 10 pledged delegates. And despite that gain, the percentage of overall remaining delegates that Clinton needs to clinch the nomination actually got smaller (from 34% to 33%), because there are fewer delegates left to win….Clinton must win 33% of remaining delegates to hit the 2,383 magic number (was 34%). Sanders must win 67% of remaining delegates to hit the 2,383 magic number (was 66%).

So there’s still an enormous delegate deficit for Sanders to make up.

[Red Oak]

1. It's the math, the math I tell you!

Pardon us while the rest of the nation votes.

[kristopher]

16. That stuff isn't math, it's propaganda

To become the Democratic nominee, a candidate will need the support of 2,383 of the 4,764 delegates in Philadelphia this summer. But while each delegate has only one vote, not all delegates are created equal. There are pledged delegates, who make up about 85 percent of the total, and there are superdelegates, who make up the remaining 15 percent. The former are awarded based on the results of primaries and caucuses, and are required to vote for their assigned candidate. The latter are Democratic lawmakers and other party bigwigs who get to vote for whomever they want when the time comes, regardless of whom they’ve previously said they’ll support. (No one said it’s a fair system, but it is the system.)

And therein lies the crux of Bernie’s case. Since superdelegates are free to change their mind as many times as they want before the convention, the only way Hillary can say 100 percent, beyond-any-shadow-of-a-doubt that she has locked up the nomination is if she wins 2,383 pledged delegates during the primary season. That requires a candidate to win roughly 59 percent of all of the non-super delegates, a high bar given states assign those delegates proportionally. (Unlike on the GOP side, there are no winner-take-all or even winner-take-most states for Democrats.)

To put that challenge into context, I crunched some numbers based on the latest estimates from the Associated Press: Clinton has built a commanding, 263-delegate lead on Sanders over the 35 contests to date, but she’s still only won about 56 percent of the total non-superdelegates, meaning she’ll need to win roughly 62 percent of the not-yet-pledged delegates going forward to reach the magic number without the help of her super friends. That’s a heavy lift given that she tore through the South—particularly friendly territory for her—and still didn’t crack 60 percent during the first half of the race. If she can’t do even better in the remaining contests, Sanders really could follow through with his plan of taking his fight all the way to the convention floor. There’d be nothing Clinton could do to stop him.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/05/bernie_sanders_wants_a_contested_convention_for_democrats.html

[Red Oak]

21. So it is likely to be an open Democratic convention?

That would be fun to watch!

We'll see how the "supers", especially the ones up for re-election, react.

Hopefully there will be a fight for the soul of the Democratic party.

[kristopher]

22. +100

[HumanityExperiment]

2. NY primary...

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/hillary-clinton-fracking-shale-state-department-chevron

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/09/hillary-clinton-wants-to-regulate-fracking-but-still-accepts-a-lot-of-fracking-money/

HRC is in the pocket of fossil fuel special interests

with NY in the cross hairs... HRC will have a tough time...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/nyregion/cuomo-to-ban-fracking-in-new-york-state-citing-health-risks.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/us/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-climate-change.html?_r=0

You hammer HRC on this and she's toast

[baldguy]

10. Hillary Clinton has a 96% chance of winning the New York primary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-york-democratic/

[kristopher]

17. What did they say about Wisconsin 3 weeks ago?

(Gotta figure the data on NY is a week in the making)

[HumanityExperiment]

20. interesting pivot...

complete avoidance of her ties to fracking industry and NY state's stance on it...

She will have a tough time if she has to pivot as hard as you did, did you sprain anything when you tried to pull off this pivot?

[NWCorona]

3. Well I guess Hillary is being frantic in NY for no reason then.

She knows what's up. That's why the fire and brimstone will be coming.

[SidDithers]

4. Hillary's delegate lead this morning is 215, according to Green Papers...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

On March 8, after Bernie's big win in Michigan, Hillary's delegate lead was 214.


Bernie has had a very good month, winning 6 states in a row.

And it's gotten him absolutely nowhere. He's exactly where he was a month ago.

Sid

[thesquanderer]

8. re: "He's exactly where he was a month ago."

And a month ago, people thought he had a shot.

Things got a lot worse after Michigan, especially on March 15. So the good news for his supporters is that he's recovered.

I'll grant you, it's better to be down by 214 with more delegates yet to be won, as it was after Michigan compared to where it is today, he has fewer states left to be able to make things up. OTOH, since March 15, his victories have been stronger than people have expected. Sure he's still the underdog. But Predictwise is actually giving him better odds today than they gave him after Michigan!

[morningfog]

12. Arbitrary starting point. She was up to 335 a few weeks ago.

Which all of us here in the US knew would be the high water mark. It's been cut in a third.

[Iliyah]

14. He's done

[Sheepshank]

5. This is the very same reason Clinton was not able to make up delegate counts......

...when she was running against Obama. And in today's count she has almost 3x that delegate lead over Sanders.

He's toast.

[Vote2016]

6. This moronic analysis assumes super delegates have already voted, which they haven't.

Super delegates don't vote for several months. Treating super delegates as if they have already voted based on how they currently lean is like treating a favorable poll in an upcoming election as if the votes have already been cast. That goes beyond stupid to misleading.

[thesquanderer]

9. Yup, another calculation that wrongly factors in the super delegates as fixed votes. (n/t)

[oasis]

7. Sanders with only a net gain of 10 delegates in Wisconsin?

Outspends Hillary 3 to 1 on the airwaves. Bernie's "burning" up those $27 donations at a fantastic rate.

[baldguy]

11. Bernie needed an absolute landslide blow-out win over Hillary in WI.

He didn't get it.

[oasis]

15. Reality sets in after a Hillary win in NY. A sizable chunk

of delegates will go to her side of the ledger. Bernie can't take that kind of a hit and keep accepting $27 donations from well meaning followers.

[CalvinballPro]

19. Should we start a betting pool for how many millions in debt his campaign will be?

Good luck getting Democrats to donate to help settle all that debt, Bernie. Maybe you can ask Tad Devine for a refund, but I wouldn't hold your breath on that! #yougotconned

[oasis]

24. You know Bernie has to be paying Nina Turner a nice sum along

with Jeff Weaver and Devine. Jane probably gets an "expense account" for her appearances on media talk shows.

[Joe the Revelator]

13. Any analysis (and NBC is terrible with this) that includes SD's is Bunk. nt

[seabeyond]

23. Clinton, kickin' ass even in loss. Now that is fun. Lol.