MSNBC Wisconsin Exit Polls, do not bode well for Sanders!

[George II]

16% of Democratic voters are under 30 years old
25% of Democratic voters consier themselves "very liberal"
54% of Democratic voters want to continue the policies of Obama

Sanders' strengths are supposed to be younger, very liberal voters who want new policies.

[Hoyt]

1. I hope your are right, but polls haven't been as reliable as in the past.

[panader0]

16. Woodie Guthrie would have been a Bernie supporter and you know it.

[Hoyt]

19. I doubt it. Heck his son, Arlo, has become a Republican.

[hobbit709]

98. Arlo's daughter Cathy supports Bernie.

[SusanCalvin]

132. Yeah, I'm still trying to figure that one out.

I remember he had some kind of convoluted explanation, but I can't recall it.

[Tarc]

20. So? I've seen a lot of the DU avatar images on both sides

Two people could be Guthrie fans and support different candidates.

Enough with the crazy groupthink politics.

[panader0]

24. Woodie Guthrie was a man of the people.

He had a sign on his guitar that said "this machine fights fascism".
He would have definitely been a Bernie supporter. Not a corporatist.

[Hoyt]

37. Guthrie is an enigma. Didn't like FDR, was somewhat of a racist, etc. But, his music was good.

[Ken Burch]

39. If Woody was a racist, he wouldn't have done an album where he basically introduced the songs

and Leadbelly played them.

[Hoyt]

40. Actually, I did not know this until a little while ago. Has me rethinking my avatar.

http://www.laweekly.com/music/little-known-fact-woody-guthrie-was-a-big-ol-racist-2412272

Going to have to do some more research.

[Armstead]

43. Get an avatar like mine....It's timeless

[Hoyt]

46. I do like that. I have not capitalized george war bush's name since 2003, even in formal

documents. I went into a several months long funk when Kerry lost.

[rjsquirrel]

77. "Kills fascists" actually /eom

[KingFlorez]

2. Exit poll data doesn't always predict much

I would be surprised if this actually foreshadows anything about the result.

[pdsimdars]

56. 2 points here -- exit polls were VERY predictive before voting machines

And more importantly, these aren't exit polls, these are demographics --- how many voters from each group. The numbers he put up don't say anything about how they voted. So they are pretty much useless.

[CoffeeCat]

3. Where were these exit polls taken?

Were these polls from various cities/locations around Wisconsin...or one particular area?

[Agnosticsherbet]

4. ABC and MSNBC Dueling exit polls. They don't appear to agree.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38163893

The question remains, which is right, or how much is each wrong.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. You have two companies doing this

and usually media pays for a consortium to feed the data to all stations. Hmmm... that is curious.

[Agnosticsherbet]

13. Yes, it is curious.

So I take them both with salt and a slice of lime.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. Over there is mt everest of salt

feel free

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I thought the data comes from one source?

[Agnosticsherbet]

35. That appears to be correct. The difference may be in how it is spun.

MSNBC and ABC are analyzing the data. As I said elsewhere, it may depend on their editorial bias and how they want to spin the numbers.

[mhatrw]

12. ABC's points to a pretty big Sanders' margin.

[George II]

15. That ABC data is questionable in it's assessment:

"about three-quarters of Democratic primary voters are “excited” or “optimistic” about the prospect of a Sanders presidency, as are seven in 10 about a Clinton presidency. Excitement, though, is about twice as high for Sanders than for Clinton."

How can 75% be excited by a Sanders presidency and 70% excited by a Clinton presidency, but Sanders' excitement is twice as high as Clinton's?

[Agnosticsherbet]

21. The way they write the numbers reveals their bias and spin margin.

I don't trust either of them.

[awake]

27. One had to choose between "excited" or "optimistic"

So there could be 50% excited for Bernie and only 25% excited for Hillary. It took me a while to understand what they were saying also.

[mythology]

31. It is pretty poorly phrased

But I think you're right.

[awake]

32. Well there are very few good journalist left, it is sad is it not.

[mhatrw]

5. 16% matches what the exit polls showed in the 2008 primary

[George II]

7. But Obama's main claim to fame and the cornerstone of his campaign wasn't....

...."energizing younger voters".

[mhatrw]

14. LOL. Were you alive for that campaign?

[George II]

28. My mother used to say, "if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all". Thanks.

[karynnj]

26. yes it was .... easily as much as energizing the black vote

Until SC, many polls showed Clinton had the black vote as strange as that seems given the results in SC.

[Joe the Revelator]

29. Hold on...are you serious?? nt

[Lucinda]

6. Do you have the estimated eprcentage for women voters in the msnbc poll? n/t

[George II]

10. They were doing in on a crawl, and mixing Democratic and republican results, so it was...

...tough to get it all without watching for 10 minutes or so. Those are the three that jumped out at me.

[Warren Stupidity]

8. bookmarking for later

[Warren Stupidity]

113. !

[brooklynite]

11. There was also a report of heavy early voting, which has tended to favor Clinton.

[George II]

18. I read this morning that in Milwaukee early voting was about 6X that of previous primary.

[snowy owl]

22. Hahaha! You're trusting MSNBC? Hahaha.

[reddread]

155. more like selling it

some people have no trust to give

[Sky Masterson]

23. I just saw where 25% polled defined themselves as "Very Liberal"

That bodes well for Sanders

[JI7]

25. it's not so exclusive. many young people support obama

They don't view Sanders as being anti Obama .

[MadBadger]

30. Disagree, these exit polls look great for Bernie.

68% of Democratic Primary voters consider themselves at least Liberal. In 08' that number was 48%. I think he will win those people. Also, I dont exactly trust this round because I expect college kids to be the last to vote.

[bvf]

33. Please provide a link

so we can all enjoy updated results as the evening proceeds.

Thanks, George.

[George II]

41. I got that data from MSNBC, but the NYT has a decent primary results site:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

[bvf]

48. If you got that data from MSNBC,

why aren't you providing a link to MSNBC, the source you actually cited?

[George II]

52. I can't link you to my television!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bvf]

53. You didn't say that.

You mean there's no way to verify your OP?

[reddread]

62. guess what I heard on the internet!

[global1]

36. What Time Do The Polls Close In Wisconsin?.....

And if the polls are still open - why are they giving out this info while the people still have the opportunity to vote?

Nothing should be reported until the polls close - including exit polls. Why can't they wait a few hours to spin things.

My only answer is that they are hoping that they could sway some votes.

[George II]

42. The polls close at 8PM central time. They're not giving results or calling a winner....

....they're just giving demographics of the voters. All networks are doing that and have been doing that in past years.

[Gwhittey]

54. Because they totaly fucked up 2000

OMG GORE won, Wait not Bush Won no Wait Gore won no wait Reagan won!! Networks sucks ass.

[George II]

55. Yes, that was the last straw for early calls of wins. Major bungling on everyone's part.

[Ellipsis]

95. Booommmmmm!

[geek tragedy]

38. those are good numbers for Sanders.

scariest number is that 90% find him honest vs 60% for Clinton. Only state that's happened in is Vermont.

[rhett o rick]

50. WTF. 60% find Clinton honest? Did they hear that she told the Senate that Hussein was rebuilding

his WMD and harboring al qaeda terrorists? The way I see it, if you trust Clinton you must trust Bush/Cheney.

[YASSIR THE FAT]

69. You will see similar numbers everywhere else.

Clinton's number is tanking. Admit it.

[geek tragedy]

70. Um, no, WI was never a good state for her nt

[beedle]

71. Yeah, that's what Hillary talking heads were saying all day

seems WI was one of those 'progressive' states ... 'progressive'? Wasn't that what Hillary was claiming to be when it served her purposes in the south? Now, those damn 'progressives' are just not her kind of people anyway?

They were even saying that there are 'some progressive areas in NY' and Sanders will probably win them too, but we are still confident .. blah, blah, blah.

[geek tragedy]

72. Heavily white, a lot of idealistic liberals

He needs to win by 16 to keep on pace to win the nomination

[beedle]

75. Yes we know.

[bvf]

138. Yeah, don't you just despise

people who want to see things improve for everyone?

And doesn't it really frost your shorts if they're the wrong skin color?

Back under your rock with you.

[big_dog]

44. most young dem voters since 1980

these exits are flawed

[Ellipsis]

45. no after-party for Hillary though, wonder why.

Because she's getting her doors blown off.

[longship]

47. As the Zen Master said: "We'll see."

As Congressman Charlie Wilson said, "That ball; it keeps on bouncing."

But it was CIA agent Gust Avrokatos who taught Charlie the way, by way of Nitsa, the witch of Aliquippa, PA.

[DCBob]

49. Look like Hillary could eek out a win tonight.

If so that will be incredibly demoralizing to the Bernie clan.

[Jitter65]

58. From where do you get that? nt

[DCBob]

60. 54% of Democratic voters want to continue the policies of Obama.

That's certainly not Bernie.

[eqfan592]

63. That is a slim majority, nor does it equate to Hilary supporters. But hey, nice try. Nt

[DCBob]

64. A "slim" win is all she needs.

[eqfan592]

66. Except, as i said, wanting to continue Obama policies doesn't equate to Clinton supporters.

That's a false assumption on your part, pure and simple. Nor does it factor in how the question is phrased when being asked.

[DCBob]

68. Considering the fact Bernie wanted to primary President Obama in 2012...

it would be remarkable any voter who wants to "continue Obama's policies" would vote for Bernie... but who knows.

[Lordquinton]

118. Considering the fact that Clinton lost a primary to President Obama in 2008

it would be remarkable any voter who wants to "continue Obama's policies" would vote for Clinton... but who knows.... Actually we do know now, they don't.

[ScreamingMeemie]

136. It's certainly not Clinton either. Not by a long shot.

Not on our best rose-colored-glass-wearing day.

Proud of my state tonight.

[eqfan592]

61. Thin air would be my guess. Same place the op got their conclusions from these numbers. Nt

[totodeinhere]

73. Consider the source but Fox News has already called it for Bernie.

CNN exit poll has Bernie leading but CNN has not called it

[DCBob]

74. Yeah, I think Bernie wins it tonight but not nearly as big as he needed.

A ten point win means very little in the big picture.

[jberryhill]

88. Eek and eke are different words

As in "Eek! She failed to eke."

[beam me up scottie]

90. LOL!

[JRLeft]

51. It sounds like the voter suppression laws have worked.

[Jitter65]

59. How, why?

[JRLeft]

67. Scott Walker's voter suppression law.

Voter I.D.

[w4rma]

96. Against college students? (nt)

[JRLeft]

100. Yes and POC.

Bernie won, but would have won by more.

[pdsimdars]

57. Hold on here people. . .. these polls say NOTHING about how they are voting.

These are about DEMOGRAPHICS, and not about who voted for whom.

It is George's OPINION about who they MIGHT vote for and NOT how they actually voted.

So, before everyone takes sides, keep the big picture in mind. There is nothing to argue about here as far as how the voting is ACTUALLY going.

The ONLY real information you can get from this OP is that George is a Hillary supporter and that you have been played.

[pdsimdars]

65. As I thought, Segami put up some numbers and Bernie is doing well.

[bullwinkle428]

76. BWAH-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!!!!

[Depaysement]

78. Yum, yum

MSNBC projects Wisconsin feels the Bern.

[Madam Mossfern]

79. Called for Bernie

[Depaysement]

83. +1

[hobbit709]

80. How does crow pie taste?

[Ellipsis]

99. I think that would be cow pie.

[Segami]

81. HEY GEORGE.....LOL!

[beam me up scottie]

82. OOPSIE!

[opiate69]

101. LMAO.. .poor, poor George....

[beam me up scottie]

105. Oof!

[opiate69]

111. On the home stretch!!!

[beam me up scottie]

115. Hey ma, watch this!

[opiate69]

119. Not so fast with those thank you cards, Madam Secretary!

[beam me up scottie]

122. George is looking for the door!

[lumberjack_jeff]

84. Kicking because... Well... I'm not a nice person. n/t

[jillan]

89. And I love that about you in this moment !

[Carolator]

102. Bernie and Willie

I'm loving that photo.

[SMC22307]

121. Hahaha. At least you're honest...

and I respect that!

[jmg257]

85. Or do they??? nt

[Duckhunter935]

86. What happened?

Oh, that's right, called for Bernie

[AgerolanAmerican]

87. LOL well so much for that little bit of FUD

Sanders in a possible blowout, well above the margin of error of all polls to date.

Clinton underperforms yet again, and has now lost what - 7 contests in a row?

[Segami]

92. Kick for....

[Joob]

91. #BernieMadeWisconsinYoungAgain nt

[Goblinmonger]

93. Epic fail

Nice try though.

[w4rma]

94. NBC called Wisconsin for Sanders, almost immediately after they started counting the votes. (nt)

[kdmorris]

97. Oh ouch

How does crow taste again?

[Babel_17]

106. Sanders winning, given the demographics of the OP, represents a revelation

16% of Democratic voters are under 30 years old
25% of Democratic voters consier themselves "very liberal"
54% of Democratic voters want to continue the policies of Obama

Older voters, moderate voters, fans of President Obama's policies, provide the key to giving Sanders a great victory.

[oldandhappy]

103. They called it for Sanders based on 1% returns!!

[Autumn]

104. Oops

[thesquanderer]

107. So either exit polls were wrong, or his support is broader than you give him credit for. (n/t)

[MillennialDem]

108. Called for Bernie. lol

[Rosa Luxemburg]

109. Well, well, well

[berni_mccoy]

110. George! George George George George George George

George George George George George George George George George George George George George George George George George George!

[hobbit709]

120. Watch out for that tree.

[Android3.14]

112. Apparently those are some pretty good strengths

Glad to see them united with the over 30 crowd, the liberals and the people who found some good in Obama's presidency.

[Ken Burch]

114. So much for that.

Do you want your crow sauteed, stirfried or flame-broiled?

[LostOne4Ever]

116. Hiya!

[denbot]

117. LoL

[IMG][/IMG]

[frylock]

123. knr

[deutsey]

124. Filed along with this

[Blue Owl]

125. CNN-esque

n/t

[Warren Stupidity]

126. Called this as FAIL at 6:11!

[morningfog]

127. They bode just fine. How is it over the border?

[Curmudgeoness]

128. K&R for the laughs. nt

[Katashi_itto]

129. k&R!!! Hows your website?

[Rob H.]

130. Kicking for the lulz

[SusanCalvin]

133. Heh. nt

[Curmudgeoness]

148. Excellent! nt

[longship]

131. Blah-de-blah Blah Blah! Blah blah de-blah de-blah!

Blah de-blah de-blah-blah, de-blah de-blah!

[Newkularblue]

134. Kick

[seattleite]

135. What were you saying?

Hmm? I couldn't hear you.

[bvf]

137. Excellent call, George.

Always listen to your teevee, because it never lies, and it's always right.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Just in case you run short.)

[AlbertCat]

139. Now, the 1st story on AOL this AM is , after Bernie won WI.....

....people are blaming Sandy Hook on him because he didn't vote to make gun manufacturers liable. Yes, Sandy Hook was Sanders' fault!.... or something. Is this all they got?

The smell of desperation in the morning.....

[bvf]

140. Yep, it's despicable. Gearing up for New York.

Down and down they go, pushing away more voters with every pass.

(AOL is still a thing? Oh, right--I forgot they absorbed HuffPost a while back.)

[Rob H.]

141. Afternoon bump

[Capt. Obvious]

143. I won't think Leser of anyone who continues to bump this thread.

[beam me up scottie]

144. Is the leser of two weevils still weevil?

[Capt. Obvious]

146. Weevils wovvle but they don't fall down

[kdmorris]

149. Tell that to this poor guy!

Someone forgot to tell him that!!

[Capt. Obvious]

156. Just like a turtle

[DFab420]

142. HOLY SHIT GUYS BERNIE IS GONNA LOSE WISCONSIN!

[TheDormouse]

145. stick a fork in him, he's done, he's lost Wisconsin!

[beedle]

147. This is fun

[Goblinmonger]

150. I'm still in shock

that he lost Wisconsin. Never saw that coming.

[Lucinda]

151. In the end he didnt get what he needed, which was to bank a lot of delegates

The win wasn't enough. +6 +10 Isn't good.

[reddread]

154. "not good enough" President Sanders

sounds great!

[HooptieWagon]

152. Epic fail!

[TheFarS1de]

153. Did you see that coming ?

&nohtml5=False

.....I think not