Clinton Campaign Lowering Expectations about New York?

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/joe_battenfeld/2016/04/battenfeld_new_york_not_looking_like_sure_thing_for_hillary

Battenfeld: New York not looking like sure thing for Hillary Clinton

Something’s rotten in the Big Apple for Hillary Clinton.

An uncomfortably close shot of her death stare goes viral. The “Bernie or Bust” movement grips the nation. A new poll shows her big lead in New York dwindling.

What’s next — an email disclosing her undying love for David Ortiz?

All of this is happening in Hillary’s backyard, just a few weeks before she was supposed to finally stamp out The Bern in the April 19 primary. And once again the Clinton campaign is sweating it out and being forced to lower expectations.

This isn’t about Hillary losing her grip on the nomination. The Democratic Party and much of the media have handed her that already — inflating her delegate lead with “superdelegate” totals and lapping up the Clinton spin minimizing all of Bernie Sanders’ state victories. It really doesn’t much matter what Democratic voters say anymore.

But Hillary needs New York to love her. It’s the biggest delegate haul so far and a diverse electorate. Independents can’t vote.

And more importantly, it’s Donald Trump’s turf, too. If Hillary thinks wagging her finger at an innocent young Greenpeace activist is rough, wait until she hears the taunts from Trump for losing their beloved home state. Especially if the blustery billionaire wins the GOP side of the ballot. Talk about bragging rights.

Then there’s the tabloids. They’ve had a field day with Trump, but for the next 2?1?2 weeks they’ll be dogging Hillary, practically daring her to lose it again. And in the unlikely event she actually loses to Sanders in New York, the front-page headlines will be merciless.

The voters in New York can be tough, too. It’s not like New Hampshire, where they welcome the candidates into their living rooms. New Yorkers will ignore them. And if a candidate causes a traffic jam, they’ll give them the finger.

But the real aftershocks from the New York primary may not be felt until the fall. A poor performance from Clinton on April 19 will be a bad sign for her general election campaign.

New York is a gimme for Democrats. It’s got even more liberals than Massachusetts. But large parts of the state are also packed with working-class Democrats in cities like Buffalo and Binghamton — exactly the type of voters who have shunned her campaign in the primary.

That’s why the New York primary is important for Clinton. It’s not going to decide whether she wins the nomination. But if Hillary can’t make it here, she won’t make it to the White House.

[brooklynite]

1. An opinion piece from a Rupert Murdoch paper?

Take it for what it's worth.

[imagine2015]

3. Joe Battenfeld wrote the article for the Boston Herald newspaper. It is not a Rupert Murdoch paper

Did you know that?

[Autumn]

5. It's not from one of David "Anita Hill is a little bit nutty and a little bit slutty" Brock's site

so any Rupert Murdoch paper definitely is a step up. YMMV

[Android3.14]

6. It was sober writing, and your statement about ownership is incorrect.

This statement, refuting your assertion, appears to be true. "In February 1994, Murdoch's News Corporation was forced to sell the paper, in order that its subsidiary Fox Television Stations could legally consummate its purchase of Fox affiliate WFXT (Channel 25) because Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy included language in an appropriations barring one company from owning a newspaper and television station in the same market."

[TheBlackAdder]

17. The same few always seem to try and spike the punch.

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[Politicalboi]

2. Oh No's!

I hope he whips her but good in NY.

[MisterP]

4. NV's flipped and slipped; WI can have heavy fraud but she's given up on it

NY is unknown terrain, a place she's had a house in for 16 years, parachuted in once someone retired

[HereSince1628]

11. How will Wisconsin have heavy -fraud-?

Are you expecting our electronic voting machines to switch votes?

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Nope, the voter supression, err ID law that Walker had the legislature pass

and will be fully enforced this Tuesday. I see that as a dress rehearsal for November btw

[HereSince1628]

22. Actually, we've already done the dress rehearsal with the ID law

The numbers being tossed around in the blogosphere about 300K voters being suppressed comes from court filings associated with attempts to block implementation of the ID law. They are estimates that are not adjusted to reflect typically low voter turnout during WI partisan elections (aka primaries). Voter turnout in 2008 for the WI primaries was about 1 million. Typical primary turnout is rather lower.

If you want to look at it as such, Tuesday will be the second dress rehearsal. Everything went well with the election in February, but run-off elections for supreme court and county officials have even lower turnout than WI primaries. So, the problems would likely be fewer. WI's ID law has been floating on the edge of implementation for years and understanding has been muddled by various attempts to modify the law even as it was being challenged by the courts. One of the more recent involved the acceptance of Veterans Affairs Photo ID cards.

Tuesday will be interesting because there will be more first time voters, and proportionately, many more people doing same day voter registration which is still allowed in WI. That part of the system will undoubtedly be tested. The problems that arise on Tuesday are likely to be about registering voters showing proof of residency, which is a separate issue from Voter ID, and is a source of confusion all on it's own.

The residency requirement is 28 days prior to the election even for people who have moved inside of WI, if you haven't lived in the district you intend to vote in for 28 days you have to vote in one way or another through/at the polling place associated with your previous residence (this requirement was a particular confusion for students during the June special election to recall Walker).

The key elements of proof of registry are the documents include proper name and -current- residential address. The need for current residential address isn't always clear on instructions, and although driver's license has name and address, for students the address on their license often does not reflect their school address which then requires further proof of active student status (see requirements for people using college, university ID below)

The following are common types of acceptable proof of residency as stated on the GAB's gov't website:

--A current and valid State of Wisconsin Driver License or State ID card.
--Any other official identification card or license issued by a Wisconsin governmental body or unit
--Any identification card issued by an employer in the normal course of business an bearing a photo of the card holder, but not including a business card.
--A real estate tax bill or receipt for the current year or the year preceding the date of the election.
--A university, college, or technical college identification card (must include photo) ONLY if the voter provides a fee receipt dated within the last 9 months or the institution provides a certified housing list, that indicates citizenship, to the municipal clerk.
--A gas, electric, or telephone service statement (utility bill) for the period commencing no earlier than 90 days before registration
--Bank statement.
--Paycheck or pay stub.
--A check or other document issued by a unit of government.
--A letter on public or private social service agency letterhead identifying a homeless voter and describing the individual’s residence for voting purposes.
--Residential lease that is effective on date of registration. (Not valid if registering by mail.)

This is not a comprehensive list, but categories of the most common types used by registering voters

[CorporatistNation]

7. The More The Voters See Of Hillary The More She Falls From Favor...

So... according to this piece if Bernie were to literally win every remaining state by mega margins... it is still Hillary's nomination...

I think that there may be a problem with that paradigm!

[SMC22307]

8. I imagine Democrats in the wealthy financial services sector will vote for her...

the types who don't care about these folks:

But large parts of the state are also packed with working-class Democrats in cities like Buffalo and Binghamton — exactly the type of voters who have shunned her campaign in the primary.

I hope the working-class Democrats crush her, in NY and WI. And PA, my home state.

[RoccoR5955]

12. Many of those wealthy financial services folks

do not live in NY. They live in NJ and CT. Both are a short commuter rail ride from NYC. Some might live in Westchester, but I do believe that the bulk of them are in NJ where taxes are lower and they have a Republican governor.

[SMC22307]

15. Many pour in from Long Island.

I know, I dated one who headed to the train before the crack of dawn five days a week. But, yes, NY, CT, NJ... and I imagine they'll vote for Hillary.

[JackRiddler]

20. They are few and not necessarily registered Democrats...

If they can convince their employees, that is a haul. But they might also fail at that.

[SheilaT]

9. Wait, wasn't she supposed to seal

the nomination on March 15th? What exactly happened?

Anyway, if she only gets 50% in NY it really is all over for her, even though I seriously doubt she'll stop her campaign then. And she shouldn't. I'm not a Hillary fan to say the very least, but unless she loses both Wisconsin and New York both in a very big way and Bernie pulls ahead of her in the delegate count, she still stands a chance of winning the nomination.

I just did some playing with numbers for my own amusement, and it really is going to go down to June 7th and the final round of primaries. Which is as it should be.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. Yup, why what happened in NV has the potential of costing her

So I am not the only one who likes to play with different models.

[DamnYankeeInHouston]

10. When is, or was the cut off for independents to register Democratic in New York?

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

13. I believe it was back in October last year, or ~March 28 if you were a new voter.

Sanders campaign had a big GOTR effort to get new voters registered in time for the March deadline. I heard 100's of thousands of calls made to GOTR.

[DamnYankeeInHouston]

14. I know NY is very Democratic, but Independents love Bernie.

I'm glad there was a massive GOTV effort.

[JackRiddler]

21. Party switch was October 9, 2015.

First-time registrants to vote were allowed to chose D and vote in the primary up to the deadline of March 24, 2016.

Interesting rules we have here.

[NuclearDem]

16. ...