Are the pollsters deliberately manipulate results...

[Sophiegirl]

Showing a narrow margin to produce better ratings for themselves.

Enquiring minds want to know?

I'm pretty sure I know the answer. But would like to have other opinions.

[JustAnotherGen]

1. I'm beginning to think so

Just a gut thing though . . .

[ejbr]

2. They seem to be cherry picking which poll

they are going to use for their news stories, even CurrentTV is using the NBC Poll versus another which may have either Obama or Robme up. They need and want a tight race.

[HowHasItComeToThis]

3. THEY SEEM TO BE ...

[bemildred]

4. Let's say their disinterested pose is purely an act. nt

[RosedaleGuy]

5. Focus on the average of all polls

Races tend to tighten toward the end. Just look at the averages of all polls. Unless there is some vast conspiracy the average of all polls should be fairly accurate.

The problem is that Obama's campaign is not hammering very clear and simple arguments that uninformed voters can grab onto.

Voters are confused as candidates accuse each other. They don't trust either one. So, you need to make simple clear arguments.

1. Romney was governor of Massachusetts yet the people of Massachusetts are not voting for him. Why is that?

2. Romney wants to increase military spending by another $2T. That's like another Iraq war! I bet you voters overwhelmingly do not want this.

[progressivebydesign]

20. disagreeing w/ your assertion. THe Obama Campaign has done everything short of flash cards

for the uninformed voters.

It's the media. It's all media. The majority of the media is tilted so far right that it's basically a propaganda machine, because the media is owned by a handful of corporations run by the people that benefit PERSONALLY from the republican policies.

[RosedaleGuy]

30. It's Not The Media

Voters tend to tune out political ads. They are hard to trust.

These arguments should have been made during the debates. I never heard Obama mention that Massachusetts, a state that Romney governed, is not voting for Romney.

Yes, Obama argued about the $2T in military expenses + 5T in tax cuts but that argument get mired when Romney denies his tax cuts. Obama should just focus on the $2T increase in military spending. Americans are on his side on this issue. So he should focus on that.

[Firebirds01]

6. Diane Rehm show did a report on this today.

One fellow said the polls are dont accurately and scientifically, but if partisan they will release only the information that looks good to them (likely voters vs registerd voters......and so forth).


http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2012-10-22/understanding-political-polls

[littlemissmartypants]

7. Pollster Smollster

Just another capitalistic shake your moneymaker tactic propagandising the election for profit, IMHO.

[Ghost of Tom Joad]

8. yes, as I've said elswhere that polls didn't change until repubs started

to complain that they were not accurate. Amazing how they are now favoring mittwit, even among women. Next we'll be hearing that dogs really want to ride on the roof of their owners' cars

[Liberal Gramma]

17. LOL

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. A Romney/Ryan win would defy the logic of the universe itself IMHO

Romney's "surge" in the polls doesn't have any real logical explanation. I know that everybody points to that first debate but I have my doubts that the single debate damaged President Obama/boosted Romney that significantly. Nothing else can really account for it either. I figured it would be a tighter race than 2008 to be sure but I have a hard time believing that people WANT Romney/Ryan in the WH. Some people just hate President Obama so much they want him out of office (i.e. teabaggers) and others erroneously believe that President Obama hasn't done anything and doesn't deserve another 4 years- or they believe that he didn't do enough and that now it's Romney's turn to try (though I have no idea what they're thinking he's going to do better than what President Obama has done so far).

[ksoze]

12. Romney was able to redefine himself in debate, nullikfying the great ealier ads

[Proud Liberal Dem]

23. Hard to believe so many people would buy such an abrupt turnaround

but then again, a lot of people don't pay as much attention to politics as we do.

[Blue Idaho]

10. Today, polls are not designed to measure voter sentiment...

They are designed to change voter sentiment.

Its a shame really...

[ksoze]

11. We weren't as concerned when we were up pre-debate.

I think the talking points by the MSM have fanned a closer race meme, but polls are polls and the repugs sounded like us a few short weeks ago. If the internals of the poll has changed, then there is manipulation.

[Justkd1]

13. Back in September, when the wheels were falling off the Romney campaign train

The media seemed to be at a loss as to how to keep the public's interest in a potential landslide election. Then came the debate, in which the president didn't perform on STYLE - somehow style became more important than fact checking and the truth, and all of a sudden, the media smelled blood and there was a non stop drumbeat about the president and if he was really up to the job. That is when the polls began to change and tilt toward Romney, almost to justify their narrative. And to keep the campaign dollars rolling into the networks. That's my take anyway...

[jasondemarcus]

14. No - it's just that the polls are trending Romney right now.

We're talking about 5 national polls in the last day. It'll come back but it's going Romney right now. Tonight's debate is important!

[progressivebydesign]

22. Sigh. Please learn more about polling. the polls you cite are cherry-picked,

are oversampling their idea of "likely" voters which are "white, female, middle aged, and upper middle class." Look at the pics of the early voting, which is outpacing last election's early voting. Umm.. female is about the only thing I see in common with what the pollsters think is "likely." National polls could favor Romney with likely voters, but frankly you don't win the election by having the racists in Alabama choosing the President.

[tiredtoo]

15. Keep in mind

it behooves the msm to make the race close. More interest and more ad dollars.

[UCmeNdc]

16. Yes!

Why do you think they invented the LV likely voter polls?
These polls can be manipulated any which of way.

[Frumious B]

18. It's kinda like Instagram

You've got a bunch of people trying to take pictures of the same thing, but the pics are all presented with different effects and filters applied.

[Dalai_1]

19. I absolutely think they are

below is an interesting link I picked up on Twitter...

Another Aussie here. Betting agencies are the only poll I ever look at in the lead up to elections.
Out of interest they are also predicting a comfortable Obama win.
edit: for anyone interested, here are the odds from a bunch of betting sites.

Link for Betting Sites http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/11vxwx/if_you_read_reddit_it_looks_like_mitt_romney_will/


I truly believe President Obama is ahead in NC with early voting..

[longship]

21. I don't think the results are tweaked.

I think they are working with flawed sampling models. That's why there is so much divergence in predicted outcomes.

Also, I think that ignoring or miss-sampling cell phones is going to sink some of the pollsters.

However, it does look like Gravis may be a partisan front. I do not think that Gallop is. I think they have a bad sampling model and it's too late to change midstream.

These guys make their bread and butter by getting it right, not by making it up.

I believe this because it is unlikely that all the diverse polling organizations are all conniving to skew things for Romney. It is more likely that their models are flawed. Cell phones polling is a plausible explanation. Okham's razor slices off the conspiracy.

I think the polls will be wrong this year. I just don't see a sufficient consensus to trust that they have it right.

I am paying attention more to how the polls are changing than the actual numbers.

I am no polling expert, but I know math and science. If I had measurements like these polls, I would be very disappointed and would be looking for ways to tighten my measurement protocols.

Just my take on it.

[smorkingapple]

24. Agree with this, no conspiracy, polling is just harder than ever now.

Keep in mind how our world has changed between now and even 20 years ago. Hell even 10 years ago, having a cell phone was a luxury for most people.

These organizations are using outdated models for how folks are likely to vote and what motivates them to go out and vote. I'm also wondering if the same people are being polled consistently and how they obtain these phone numbers without permission from the owner of the number.

I also don't think early voting is being factored into this correctly.

We'll see come election day...

[Spitfire of ATJ]

25. Put it this way, Clinton never got a majority of White Males in either election....

Yet all we hear for the most part on TV is the opinion of White Males.

RICH White Males at that.

Some of them act like they can't be seen in the same tailored suit twice. Some of the suits cost more than the typical retiree makes in a year. They all know labels too. Show up at one of their events with a "Mens Warehouse" $300 job and they spot it instantly.

These are the people who watched "Gangs of New York" and have nightmares of the citizens rising up against the rich.

Republicans are behind with every demographic that isn't white and male and I bet a real poll whould show Romney losing that group too but you would never know it based on the selective samples they use. What gets me is when they say the poll is an odd number like 4367. You get the idea they polled an even 5000 and tossed 633 results to get what they want.

[Doctor Jack]

26. Cherry picking is more like it

538 has a chart today showing that the polls the media is focusing on are basically Gallup lv and Rasmussen. There are many polls showing Obama with solid leads but no one is talking about them

[Welcome_hubby]

27. Your theory is unlikely

Questions such as the following arise:

Gallup is not showing a narrow margin. Do they want to produce ratings for themselves? If your answer is that Gallup wants to get ratings by being "unique",why didn't Gallup stand out as a huge outlier in 2008? Did they want to get ratings in a different way? Why did Gallup show a wide margin of victory for Republicans in 2010 instead of making things closer? Gallup was criticized for failing to detect a close race.

Why did Pew have Obama up by 15% on October 23, 2008? Is Pew excluded from our conspiracy theory?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

Why was the ABC/Washington Post publish a poll (10-23/10/26) where Obama was ahead by 7% in 2008? Why did't they pretend the race was tied or something?

Did a lightbulb turn on in pollsters' heads somewhere between 2008 and 2012 telling them about the close-race easy-money trick?

[lumpy]

28. Absolutely nothing would surprise me re. the polls.

This has been such a corrupt campaign on the part of the far right thinkers.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. No. I just think this race is really hard to poll.

[emulatorloo]

31. Pollsters reputations are built on having accurate poll data.

So no.