Krugman: Feel the Math

[Cryptoad]

Source: NYT

The Sanders campaign has come much further than almost anyone expected, to the point where Sanders can have a lot of influence on the shape of the race. But with influence comes responsibility, and it’s time to lay out some guidelines for good and bad behavior.

The first thing to say is that it’s still very unlikely that Sanders can win the nomination. Don’t tell me about national polls (and cherry-pick the polls that show your guy getting close); at this point it’s all about delegate counts, where Clinton has a substantial lead with the voting more than half over. The Times’s Upshot has a nice calculator that takes account of what we know about demographic factors – Sanders does well in very white states and in caucuses, not so much elsewhere – and lets you experiment with various overall leads in what remains of the race. To overtake Clinton in pledged delegates, Sanders would need to win by about a 13 point margin from here on in:

read more at.........

Read more: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/04/01/feel-the-math/?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur


Many Neo-BernProgressives are burning bridges behind them when it come to the possibility of influence in the next administration just by some unreasonable chance Bern doesn't win.

[Cryptoad]

1. Got bumped from LBN,,,,,seems there are

two set o rules for LBN

[Contrary1]

3. "No analysis or opinion pieces."

Most likely the reason.

[Cryptoad]

10. I know what the rules say

seems they are interpreted different according to the content, I see opinion -Analyst pieces on LBN that are pro Bern that remain up even after complaints.

[onehandle]

4. 'LBN' stands for 'Latest Bernie News'

A major mind confirming reality doesn't count when it's about a Clinton.

[CorporatistNation]

43. We're Only At Half Time Pauly!

Some TRUTH for ya'll!

&list=RDUcGrzbxRaxs&index=1

[choie]

6. Krugman still angling for that cabinet post, huh?

[Hoyt]

9. Like washed up Reich with Sanders.

[BirdieSanders]

14. How is Reich washed up? He's a distinguished professor at a top public uni & has a devoted following

[Hoyt]

20. Just a year or two ago, he was saying the only thing wrong with NAFTA, which he helped enact,

was it lacked environmental and labor protections. TPP corrects much of that. Yet, he's still shilling for Sanders.

My guess is he's tired of lecturing to college Freshpeople. Krugman is as distinguished as Reich, if not more. Reich has lost it over the years and is an opportunist -- that is, he knows he has one last chance to be relevant, so he's willing to shill for Sanders because Clinton doesn't want/need his help. Just my opinion.

[DanTex]

25. Krugman is far more distinguished than Reich. He's a Nobel laureate, and Reich is

basically a lightweight.

[Hoyt]

26. I stand corrected. :)

[BirdieSanders]

34. Krugman is a heavyweight when it comes to rank-pulling, but has been light on substantive criticism

of late, as has been widely pointed out across numerous outlets (http://www.thenation.com/article/bernie-sanders-will-make-the-economy-great-again/ for starters)

used to lubbbbbbbb pauly's columns, always good for a sagacious nugget or two and a nod to climate urgency...but goddamn that man has fallen hard on his face...and for whaT!? to act as gatekeeper to enthusiasm and support for issues he cares about... to poo-poo our parade...

since fall 2015, every time I read krugman political commentary I just about say UP YOURS, PAUL! (still enjoy his wonkier stuff and GOP diatribes)

[Blanks]

27. I like Robert Reich...

But you're right. He's turned a corner on this Bernie candidacy.

I follow him on Facebook and every day he's either trashing Hillary or singing Sanders praises. I watched his documentary and I liked it, but he's getting too far out there in his support of Sanders to remain relevant if he doesn't win.

He calls Trump names too, makes him seem a little less distinguished to me.

[Hoyt]

28. Lked him too, but he's really changed as you point out.

[hollysmom]

17. I was thinking the same thing.

[CorporatistNation]

18. I Used To Respect Krugman....

I mean what does the guy need... He is sacrificing his personal and professional integrity. I feel sorry for him....

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Point to threads blocked and not blocked. I doubt you can make a credible list.

I haven't noticed any such LBN bias as you allege.

I have seen Bernie supporters allege DU bias based on top-level admin support for Hillary.

Since both sides are alleging bias, it is likely there is little or none.

I do know that both sides are well advised to simmer down.

[Cryptoad]

12. Sorry im not ur list maker,,,,,

[Bernardo de La Paz]

16. Your claim. Ball in your court. But you are free to make unsupported assertions. Carry on. . nt

[cosmicone]

2. Krugman is brilliant and a Nobel laureate

He is put down in these parts though because he doesn't bow down to the Unicorn J. Sparklepony economics of "let's rob the rich people and share the free stuff" revolution.

[hollysmom]

19. so what are you saying here - are you saying something is for children ro

is this an anti-gay slur or is this an ageist senility slur. Not sure what you are going for. I know those nice people using these words are not thinking anything of the kid - but it sure sounds like they are hitting a bunch of buttons.

As to Krugman, I have never seen him ignored the corporate facts like he has during this campaign,so contradictory, must really really want that job.

[cosmicone]

21. Huh?

I don't see any anti-gay or ageist senility slur in there -- where do you see that?

[hollysmom]

22. read it again. I was asking what your point was exactly in English rather than in

symbolism - symbolism often means more than one thing.

[Depaysement]

53. Being a good economist

Does not make one a political savant.

And he doesn't oppose most of Sanders' economics policies. Reich, Baker, Krugman and Bernstein have differences but they aren't all that big.

[Armstead]

5. So now he's become an expert on electoral politics. Super Krugman!

Is there nothing he doesn't know?

[Nye Bevan]

23. Nobel Schnobel. What the hell does he know? (nt)

[cherokeeprogressive]

44. Has he ever done anything other than write books and teach classes?

Driven an economy maybe?

[Gothmog]

8. Great article by Prof. Krugman

[reformist2]

11. Feel the Momentum. Physics >>> Math.

[mmonk]

13. We aren't the ones burning bridges.

Drop out we're told. We suck we're told. We're delusional we're told. We're radical we're told. And mostly, other things much worse. We're told it everyday. I repeat, we're told it everyday. And the issues we want to address are called ponies. A revolution doesn't do the ruling class's timeline. And if we lose the election, don't expect us to bow nor go away or heed the next representative and any demeaning remarks. We'll still be here.

[Cryptoad]

15. must not have read teh article

no body said drop out,,,,,geeez

[Hortensis]

24. NO! He recommends 2 main changes to behavior.

That's all. Not dropping out!

1. First, the Sanders campaign needs to stop feeding the right-wing disinformation machine. Engaging in innuendo suggesting, without evidence, that Clinton is corrupt is, at this point, basically campaigning on behalf of the RNC. If Sanders really believes, as he says, that it’s all-important to keep the White House out of Republican hands, he should stop all that – and tell his staff to stop it too.

2. Second, it’s time for Sanders to engage in some citizenship. The presidency isn’t the only office on the line; down-ballot races for the Senate and even the House are going to be crucial. Clinton has been raising money for other races; Sanders hasn’t, and is still being evasive on whether he will ever do so. Not acceptable.

Oh, and the Sanders campaign is saying that it will try to flip superdelegates even if it loses the unpledged delegates and the popular vote. Remember when evil Hillary was going to use superdelegates to steal the nomination? Double standards aside, what makes the campaign think that he will get any backing from a party he refuses to lift a finger to help? ...

We’ve now reached the point where what’s fun for the campaign isn’t at all the same as what’s good for America.

Sanders doesn’t need to drop out, but he needs to start acting responsibly.

Me: His supporters too. Evil forces are massed to destroy us all. We really, really, really need to form up against them.

[basselope]

31. Two cute lies...

1. First, the Sanders campaign needs to stop feeding the right-wing disinformation machine. Engaging in innuendo suggesting, without evidence, that Clinton is corrupt is, at this point, basically campaigning on behalf of the RNC. If Sanders really believes, as he says, that it’s all-important to keep the White House out of Republican hands, he should stop all that – and tell his staff to stop it too.

Lie #1) Clinton IS corrupt and there is a TON of evidence out there that proves is.

2. Second, it’s time for Sanders to engage in some citizenship. The presidency isn’t the only office on the line; down-ballot races for the Senate and even the House are going to be crucial. Clinton has been raising money for other races; Sanders hasn’t, and is still being evasive on whether he will ever do so. Not acceptable.

Lie #2) I get e-mails almost daily from other candidates Sanders is helping raise money for.. REAL progressives who share the values for which he is fighting.

[Hortensis]

36. Basselope, it is also time for you to

take Krugman's advice.

1. Apply the same standard to Clinton that you apply to everyone
else. You don't join witch hunts to take down any other politician, or even some neighbor you don't like, for their "corruption," so back off this chosen victim.

2. E-mails? Really? Check the figures. The last ones I saw, as of January, showed that Hillary had raised $18M for downticket races, Bernie $0. He has been extremely remiss with "coattails" assistance, also, even though he is now in a national party leadership position. IF he is the leading candidate you imagine, other candidates must be asking him daily to help them get elected by appearing with them.

You know, if Bernie were elected, he would need the good will of Democrats in Congress to be an effective president. He never earned it before, and he is blowing this opportunity to make up for it now. He would also need as many Democrats IN Congress as possible.

What is he doing?

[basselope]

38. I don't advice based on lies.

1. I do apply the same standard to Clinton I apply to everyone else. That is why I will never vote for her.

2. Saying Bernie has raised $0 is simply false. He has been helping candidates all over the country who share his values. He hasn't raised money for the DNC, but they also haven't invited him to do so.

What Bernie is doing is something that the DNC is not.. getting NEW VOTERS to register, which is the only chance the dems have. However, with how the DNC is treating Sanders, I highly doubt most of those new voters are going to waste their time voting or supporting a corrupt party.

[basselope]

29. The next administration will be GOP without Bernie as the candidate.

So, not sure what influence people expect to have.

[Cryptoad]

30. GOP will chew him up and spit him out... he has not been vetted by GOP for a reason

[basselope]

32. Do you even know what the word "vetted" means?

I don't think so, because you aren't using it in the proper context.

GOP will do the usual dance with Bernie, but because he doesn't have a history of flip flopping or a long line of scandals behind him, its going to be hard to make it stick.

[geek tragedy]

37. Wishful thinking or do you have an empirical basis for that claim? nt

[basselope]

39. Yes, turnout.

Hillary is unable to drive turnout. Low turnout will = a democratic loss.

[geek tragedy]

40. she drives turnout a lot more than Bernie does, and Trump will drive turnout

for us plenty.

So would Ted Cruz.

[basselope]

41. Its never worked that way in the past.

It won't work that way in the future either.

If you are counting on people turning out and sitting though hours of lines JUST to vote AGAINST someone... you are absolutely fooling yourself. This is why the democrats lost in 2004.. they put out a weak as water candidate and despite bush being unpopular, it's not enough to get people to deal with the hassle.

With voting becoming even MORE difficult, it is going to be harder.

Bernie has done a far better job driving turnout for Hillary. Hillary is relying on low voter turnout.

[geek tragedy]

42. if Bernie were doing a better job of turning out voters, he'd be ahead instead of behind nt

[basselope]

45. Not really true.

This is based on the false assumption that the primary process mimics the general election process, but we all know it doesn't.

First, you have closed primaries with wacky deadlines and rules. Bernie has done well in the more open primaries with later day or same day registration. Democrats are only 29% of the population... While independents make up 42%.. without them on election day, you lose, but they may not be able to show up to a primary.

Second, you have caucuses.. so the concept of "popular" vote gets thrown out, because who knows how many people a caucus voter represents, but what it does test is enthusiasm, because they are more work. Here Bernie has done fantastically well in these types of contests, which suggests that his dedication runs much deeper than Clinton's.

The reality is that Clinton doesn't have the support necessary to win the general election, because too many Bernie supporters (such as myself) are only back in this party for HIM and his ideals. Without them, we go away.

You are not going to win with the 29% of the country that calls themselves democrats.

[geek tragedy]

46. sorry, that's gibberish. Clinton is getting more voters to come out and vote for her.

Also, you are completely ignoring how unelectable Trump is.

[basselope]

47. Sorry reality is gibberish.

Clinton is CURRENTLY (with about 1/2 the states in) doing better b/c the map has favored her. That is shifting, which is why she is freaking out.

Trump is not undetectable. I know you want to believe it, but there is a LONG TIME between now and November and unlike Clinton, he can completely remake himself OR if he doesn't win the election, he can really mess with things and go 3rd party, which would create the following scenario.

GOP would win all the down ticket contests because having Trump run as a 3rd party would likely INCREASE turnout among GOP minded voters.

It would also likely throw the contest into the House, as no one would get the required number of electoral votes and the GOP would get to pick the next president in the house.

Clinton simply doesn't have the support to win in November.

It's just reality. She will not ever be president.

Sorry.

[geek tragedy]

48. You think New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

are favorable turf for Sanders?

Go ahead and explain how PA is going to feel the Bern despite being like Ohio only without independents, and more old people and black people voting.

[basselope]

49. Yes, very favorable.

[geek tragedy]

50. Based on .... ? nt

[basselope]

51. The polls and how they have been shifting.

The fact that NY has seen an UNPRECEDENTED number of new registrations from primary YOUNG VOTERS.

And the fact that the more Clinton speaks, the more people of #SickofHer

[geek tragedy]

52. not a single poll shows Sanders within double-digits in any of those states.

in other words, all you have is Hillary Hate.

we're done here

[basselope]

54. False.

[nichomachus]

33. Sounds like Krugman has been feeling the meth.

[Lucinda]

35. TY!