It’s April and Clinton has not managed to put away a 74-year-old avowed socialist...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bernie-sanders-is-giving-hillary-clinton-a-real-run-for-the-nomination/2016/03/31/2a4b122a-f77e-11e5-a3ce-f06b5ba21f33_story.html
It’s April and Clinton has not managed to put away a 74-year-old avowed socialist who wasn’t even a Democrat until he began his campaign. Why is that not worrisome?
By any objective measure, Clinton is far ahead. She has won in 18 states, compared with Sanders’s 14. More people have voted for her than for any other candidate, including Trump — far more than have voted for Sanders, since most of Clinton’s victories have been in primaries while most of Sanders’s have come in caucuses. More important, she has such a big lead in convention delegates that it is mathematically improbable, though not yet impossible, for Sanders to catch her.
That said, Sanders is doing his best. He has won five of the past six states, including a far-West sweep last week in Washington, Alaska and Hawaii. His lackluster performance with African American voters in the South, which Clinton swept like a conquering hero, improved notably in Michigan, where he won a hard-fought primary. He continues to draw big, enthusiastic crowds, and raises money so easily — basically, just by mentioning his campaign website — that he can afford to stay in the race all the way to the convention.
And why wouldn’t he? Calls for Sanders to drop out, at this point, strike me as premature and probably counterproductive. He embodies the views and aspirations of millions of Democrats — including many in large states that are yet to vote, such as New York, Pennsylvania and California. What purpose would be served by denying so many people the opportunity to vote for the candidate of their choice?
Most campaigns end when they run out of money. Sanders is not quite as flush as the billionaires he rails against, but pretty close.
To win the nomination, Sanders would have to defeat Clinton in Wisconsin next week, ride that momentum to beat her decisively in the Northeast states yet to vote and end with a big victory in California. In other words, he would have to pull an inside straight. As any poker player can testify, it does happen — but don’t count on it.
Even at that, the best he could hope to do is narrowly beat Clinton in the number of delegates allocated by voters in primaries and caucuses. He would still have to convince hundreds of convention “superdelegates” — mostly elected officials who embody the Democratic establishment — to abandon Clinton and vote for him as the nominee. So really, it’s more like an inside straight flush that Sanders needs.
But look at the bigger picture: It’s April and Clinton has not managed to put away a 74-year-old avowed socialist who wasn’t even a Democrat until he began his campaign. Why is that not worrisome?
Clinton’s disapproval rating is consistently higher than her approval numbers — an average of 55 percent to 40 percent, according to Huffpost Pollster. (This would be seen as a crisis if Trump’s disapproval numbers were not even higher.) Substantial numbers of voters say they do not trust her.
In isolation, let’s face it, she looks beatable in the fall. Fortunately for her, the Republican Party doesn’t look capable of beating anybody . But I wouldn’t want to bet everything on GOP dysfunction.
It’s too early for Sanders to pull out, but not too early for him to begin making clear that if he does lose to Clinton, he will support her enthusiastically and without reservation. He needs to tell supporters, in no uncertain terms, that if they stay home in November a Democratic victory is far from assured.
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