2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumEurope would elect Hillary Clinton by a landslide
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/03/31/europe-would-elect-hillary-clinton-landslide/
I think I am going to move to Europe if she loses, lol.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Many expats (like me) are still registered in their home state and vote in those primaries.
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)brooklynite
(94,703 posts)...this is a Party nomination; they can define the selection process however they want.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)State laws vary on this, but in general it's entirely legal.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)You might not like it there.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)what we do not like and are saying no to.
Extremists are so by personality. Our own would be unhappy with universal healthcare and business in Europe also, as not going far enough and totally corrupt. Need. Revolution. Now. No matter where.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)We do "Need. Revolution. Now."....Not a "guns and roses" revolution but a revolutionary change in our expectations and what we allow and accept.
And I say all that as a guy who is rather moderate by nature -- and in principle has often agreed totally with the spirit of what President Obama has often said in his broader speeches.
But we have been on a course in both parties of a relentless form of corporate right wing extremism since the late 1970's. It is now assumed as standard operating procedure that nothing positive or liberal can ever can get done -- and much negative gets done -- because the corporate lobbyists will intimidate Congress and the WH.
That has got to change. We have to start by electing politicians who are not bought and paid for.
Otherwise we are headed to dystopia....and/or perhaps eventually a much less palatable form of revolution.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)person on DU who does not worry about what you speak of and does not intend to vote to fix it. Many of us have watched in dismay the decline of America under conservative ideologies and policies and the continual shifting of power and wealth to a few for a very long time.
Believing that only one's own group can fix big problems and that all people who do not share their particular ideology are part of the problem is a major indicator of extremist personality. Both the far left and the far right share an overweaning and completely misplaced belief in their own superior righteousness and morality, and in the need for them to take control.
This allows them to regard the rest of us with contempt and disregard at best and as problems to be "purged" at worst; especially, to refuse to work with to achieve our common goals, and to oppose and attack all who don't join them-- such as the black voting block. To put it mildly, extremists don't play well with others. Extremists put adherence to their narrow beliefs far above actually achieving their goals.
And extremists are bullies, prone to thuggish behavior. Ruthless willingness to displace and even destroy those in their way, such as Hillary Clinton, is a seminal indicator. Villifying is a first step to justifying the worst of behaviors, such as claiming that DU's liberals are in league with conservatives or actual conservatives themselves. All lies that further those goals are eagerly used, and internalized. That cultivated "belief" allows noncooperation, rejection, and even attack of those who share their goals without compunction.
Then there are the constant complaints that our democratic process itself is so corrupt that it is keeping democracy from functioning. Every single time their current chosen leader doesn't do well in an election, hundreds of charges of election theft are made. Non-extremists reading this stuff don't for a moment doubt that many of these people would support bypassing elections to place their leader in office -- if only they could. In a heartbeat. All for the good of America, of course.
There are other indicators of extremism, none good to my mind, but I think you get the idea. Liberals and centrists with your worries and goals don't join the small, dysfunctional population of extremists to attack themselves. They very sensibly work with a far larger and more functional population of citizens across the spectrum who share their goals.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)I always check out when I see them.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Ain't soon enough for me though.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)if he and his followers could only keep their eyes on the prize, and didn't confuse us with their enemies.
As it is, ... patience, damage control, long view, patience...
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I have seen this outrageous process unfolding with scant opposition since 1980 (appx.) It has been a long series of steps. Each step made the problems bigger and larger and more embedded.
Instead of pro-actively challenging these things, most "New Democrats" either colluded or ignored it.
Bernie Sanders (and a handful of others) tried to stop this crap all along the line. But they were marginalized and ignored.
Bernie is now simply stating and trying to stimulate changes that were needed 35, 25, 15...10 years ago. And finally, the possibility of solutions have entered the mainstream.
I don't see that as extreme. It is long overdue.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)and frivolously, as a person describing signing up for college classes might describe it as a personal revolution, but many extremists here at DU were drawn to Bernie BY the word and all the destruction and unleashing of hostility it promises. Fortunately, they are doomed to be disappointed yet again. This time.
As for your own orientation, I could just point out the problems of people being misjudged by the company they keep, if it barks like a dog, lying down with dogs, getting up with fleas, etc., but your seeming inability or unwillingness (is there any practical difference?) to recognize that liberals and moderates are fighting for your goals without you, to me, all by itself calls into genuinely serious question your claims of liberality and moderation.
I mention this because Bernie could be followed by a more dangerous leader also with the siren's song of revolution.
Given your supposed concerns about the direction this nation has been dragged in, here's an association you should watch for if you're not an extremist, and especially if you are.
Far left + far right + strong social and economic conservatives + funding and leadership from ultraconservative anti-democratric interests pulling strings from behind a worse-than-Bernie uniting leader. People eager to believe lies are chumps for deception.
It really could happen here.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I would not have had any problem.
They were (are) clear liberals who were moderate to varying degrees -- but rowing in the same direction as those who are more progressive.
I make a distinction between them and the conservative corporate DLC Democrats who hijacked the boat and pulled it in the opposite rightward direction on economic and structural power issues.
(And I realize Harkin and Brown are Clinton supporters right now, but that doesn''t change my basic appreciation of them.)
I don't buy your notion that Bernie is a template for someone worse. Or that his supporters are all mindless sheep ripe for being misled by some evil demagigue. (I'd attribute that more to the Trump as the template.)
Kids are kids, and being somewhat immoderate goes with the territory for some of his younger supporters. I prefer the more optimistic assessment that as they mature, they'll push the values Sanders represents even as their temperament moderates.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)I don't believe Bernie is a bad guy or too dangerous to elect. He and I share many current goals. Given the extreme constraints on presidential power, I believe he would use it to make the same sorts of changes Hillary would.
But I don't believe he is honest about how far his ideology differs from mainstream liberal either, and he has not been for a very long time now. Bernie's current statements are meant to reassure a nation that he will protect what they want protected and make only a little "revolution-as-in-nice-and-normal" progression.
But his personality draws people like him to him exactly the same way millions of bigots were drawn to Pat Buchanan by his more occult statements. Buchanan, of course, is a white male supremacist who passes himself off to the nation at large as respectable enough to be considered a conservative intellectual who speaks for mainstream conservatives. Buchanan sounds wonderfully intelligent and reassuring when he wants to, which is most of the time.
"I am not now, nor have I ever been, a liberal Democrat" -- Bernie Sanders. This, given the significant overlap between strong liberal and some far left goals and beliefs. But not others and not personalities.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)From a recent Daily Fix interview with Chris Graff, the longtime Vermont bureau chief for the Associated Press and author of "Dateline Vermont"
GRAFF: Incredibly successful. The origins of almost everything great in Burlington today can be traced back to Bernies tenure as mayor. When he was elected in 1981 many city leaders feared he would care more about foreign policy (his team and his supporters were known as "Sanderistas" than city matters. But he was laser-focused on fixing potholes and economic development and rebuilding the waterfront and saving the downtown and providing arts and developing programs for children. Today Burlington ranks as one of the most livable cities in the nation. (Editor's note: He's right!)
FIX: Sanders has been in Washington for the past 24 years straight first in the House and now in the Senate. How do Vermonters regard him? Still as an outsider to the establishment or part of the establishment?
GRAFF: Most love him. In every parade that Bernie marches in, he gets the biggest and loudest cheers from Vermonters across the political spectrum. He remains very popular in liberal and conservative regions of the state. Thats not to say that he is universally loved. Some business leaders, Republican leaders and even some Democrats see him as the crazy uncle in the attic.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Others might read up on far left personality and its similarity to far right. Unfortunately, far more research has been done on the far right for obvious reasons, and much of it is hidden from attack behind technical language. But what is easily available is very enlightening.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)w4rma
(31,700 posts)And the Democratic Abroad voters were informed. Americans all over the world supported Sanders by over 2 to 1.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Democrats Abroad, which is a small % of expats. Many expats (like me) are still registered in their home states, and vote in those primaries.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Expats are a varied group. There are expat Republicans too (although they don't have an equivalent to Democrats Abroad). But when someone says "Democrats all over the world have voted overwhelmingly for Bernie", my response is "The only real figures we have on how expats voted is from the Democrats Abroad primary, which does NOT include the many expats who vote in their own states". So it's not a valid measure of who expats are voting for.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)That it doesn't represent the full population of expat Democrats isn't a fatal flaw. To show it is the burden is on you to show that Democrats Abroad is not a representative sample.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Democrats Abroad has about 35000 registered voters. There are over 8 million Americans living abroad. Let's assume a significant percentage of those are Republicans, Independents, or not part of the political process. Shall we take out half, to be fair? 4 million and 35000 - less than 1% of all expats. Should we make it even fairer and take out 75%? 2 million and 35000 - 1.75% of all expats. And just to be fair to the other side, let's also assume that not all of those 35000 will vote, even if they're registered. So the percentages get even smaller.
It's not that it doesn't represent the full population of expat Democrats. It's that it represents such an infinitesimal population of expat Democrats that the measure is not remotely statistically valid.
riversedge
(70,285 posts)those who are eligible. Very much appreciated.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Democrats Abroad has their primary on Super Tuesday, so it got some good press. But I really don't think it's fair to point to it as a valid example that Bernie is crushing Hillary amongst expats.
As I said below, I would never give up my state registration, because I'm from Pennsylvania. Hillary will win PA, I really believe it!
riversedge
(70,285 posts)all du members would read and learn. thanks again
all american girl
(1,788 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Democrats Abroad only has 35000 registered voters, and there are 8 million Americans living abroad.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)And you still haven't shown a difference between the Democrats Abroad sample and the other Democrats abroad, who decided not to register to vote.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Polls? There is no discussion of polls here. You said "Bernie won globally by a landslide". I said "only in the small percentage of people who are registered to vote with Democrats Abroad", someone else said "prove it", and I posted numbers of voters. No polls mentioned or discussed. And how you can say Bernie "won" anything amongst Democrats abroad I don't know, since there are still many primaries who haven't even voted yet, in which expat Democrats will be casting their votes.
What difference are you talking about? Each individual voter has the opportunity to vote for his or her choice, regardless of whether that voter is voting with Democrats Abroad or in his/her home state primary. The fact that a majority of Democrats Abroad voters (of 35000) voted for Bernie says nothing about who the vast majority of Democratic expats have, or will, vote for. I don't know where "Decided not to register to vote" comes into it, because I never said that. We are talking about expat voters who are registered with Democrats Abroad (35000 voters) versus expat voters who are voting in their home states' primaries (all the rest of the registered Democrats out of 8 million Americans living abroad).
I admit it. Clinton supporters can't be bothered to vote. Happy?
Clinton has a "silent majority" of Americans abroad who can't be bothered to register to vote, much less get out of bed to vote for someone who will only start more wars with her power.
Is that what you are trying to say?
To be honest, I don't think that's completely true. I think that Americans abroad are paying attention to the American election far closer than a regular European is. And I think that they have a better perspective on the world, by not being inside of the American corporate media propaganda bubble. And that's why Americans abroad vote Bernie by over 2 to 1.
I'm also going to add that Obama slaughtered Clinton in the Americans Abroad vote, also.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I'm not replying to you anymore because you are doing this on purpose to rile me up. Replying to you is a waste of time.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)I think Europeans are used to women leaders.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)There was an article about Bernie THIS MORNING on the BBC app. We don't live in the freaking wilderness. We have TV and everything!
all american girl
(1,788 posts)They seem to think that Europeans are uninformed. At Christmas time I went to a dinner an Icelandic friend's house...and we talked about American politics. There was an American family, us (Americans) and a British family. Everyone knew what was happening. Silly Americans
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)those relationships are already built, and the are strong.
What a wonderful way to start with the next administration
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)Pretty low I suspect.
But VERY nice to see Europe favors a Democrat.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Many expats (like me) are still registered to vote in their home state, and vote in those primaries. I won't give up my state registration, because I'm from Pennsylvania.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Reading is fun·da·men·tal.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Renew Deal
(81,869 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)w4rma
(31,700 posts)Yavin4
(35,445 posts)Bernie has been in government for over 40 years, and yet people don't know him.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)Yavin4
(35,445 posts)And she's only in her first term. Why? Because Elizabeth Warren works hard to promote the party. I get emails from her on a daily basis.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)Yavin4
(35,445 posts)But the question is moot because she's not running.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)Not only that, the exact same people would be working on her campaign. Would you support Elizabeth Warren for President of the United States, if that was the case?
Yavin4
(35,445 posts)However, I suspect that she wouldn't have the exact same platform. But, this argument is silly because she's not running. You're assuming that her platform would be the same as Bernie which is flawed.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)And, yes, Bernie Sanders's platform is the progressive platform which would also be Elizabeth Warren's platform.
So, what's your policy problem?
all american girl
(1,788 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)leftynyc
(26,060 posts)under the Bernie bus. It's okay, they're in excellent company - African Americans, Southerners, every person on tv including Rachel Maddow, NARAL, Planned Parenthood.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)I have zero inclination to be concerned about how Europeans would vote in our election of a new Executive and for the life of me don't see why anyone else would either.
Under the bus? Again? The "Bernie bus" no less? I've seen better retreads on fifty year old big rigs.
The sudden concern by the Hillary camp for Southerners is truly a paradox for the ages, lemme tell ya.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)Trashing every single group that doesn't worship at Bernie's feet and think Hillary would be better. It's doing wonders for those you'll need in November.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Surely you don't believe DU has any more than a few votes' influence on the outcome of the primaries or the General Election.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)Sanders' finally getting national name recognition here in the states means that one has to travel a lot farther to find people still unaware of him.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Shows he's been ineffectual as he would be as President.
You really think Europeans give a shit about US Senators?
Thats hilarious.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)It's got Universal Health Care and free college tuition.
All that poll really says is that people have heard of her in Europe.
In Europe Hillary woukd lose any election she ran in because she'd be seen as right-wing.
I live in Europe and my district elected a socialist and a near socialist independent. Better stay in America.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)As to be free.
In Ireland and the UK it's a few grand a year and most of that can be paid for by the State if you apply for grants, etc.
My wife got a Masters for about 2k all in. I have a friend in Germany that got 6 years of college for a few hundred a year.
It's basically free. No one that wants to go can't because of money.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Here's an article from last year: http://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/news/almost-all-english-universities-to-charge-maximum-%C2%A39,000-tuition-fee-%E2%80%93-exclusive-survey-by-thecompleteuniversityguidecouk/
Since then, many more universities have reached the £9k cap.
As of today's exchange rate, £9000 is $12817. That is not basically free.
hereforthevoting
(241 posts)Google search said "average is approximately £6,000 per annum" and that it has a cap of 9.
Still not free but no where near what I have recently paid and has a cap at least. We have administrators who give themselves raises without doing any important work and we never know when that tuition will go up.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)is that the previous poster's assertions that you can get a grant from the government in the UK to pay most of it is untrue. You can get a LOAN from the government, just like in the States, that will need to be repaid. The good thing here in the UK is that you have to be above a certain level of income before your loan payments kick in. The crap thing, though, is that you are not eligible for that government loan if you have attended university before. So, if you decide to pursue another career, you must pay out of pocket to be retrained.
https://www.gov.uk/student-finance/overview
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)It's shot up a lot then... I lived there and worked in a university as did my wife about 8 years ago and the vast majority of the kids basically had a free ride then.
I see that about half are about 6k a year. Which is still ridiculously cheap compared to the US.
Compare that to Germany:
Last year saw the last of Germanys 16 states abolish tuition fees for undergraduate students at all public German universities. This means that now, both domestic and international undergraduate students at public universities in Germany are able to study in Germany for free, with just a small fee to cover administration and other costs per semester
http://www.topuniversities.com/student-info/student-finance/how-much-does-it-cost-study-germany
The UK isn't very European though.. Lol.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)State universities in the US are more expensive than they used to be, but not THAT expensive. Penn State University, for example, is $16, 572 per academic year. That's not far off the £12000 I posted earlier, and Penn State is a very good school and has higher tuition than many state schools. Here's a good graph:
http://trends.collegeboard.org/college-pricing/figures-tables/2015-16-state-tuition-and-fees-public-four-year-institutions-state-and-five-year-percentage
You can see Pennsylvania is near the top.
When you say half the UK universities are about £6k, bear in mind that many of those schools are small universities, that used to be trade schools, in rural areas. If you're in a city, going to a decent university, you are very likely to be paying £9k.
Whether the UK is very European is a separate matter. In a couple of months, we may not be anyway.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)That's a bit of a stretch when you consider that half of the universities ARE still 6k or less. And English families aren't paying with USD so you'd have to adjust by something other than exchange rate.
A lot of those 6k universities are more rural but not all of them!
And yes, the UK is more anti-Europe than most Americans. Lol. I personally couldn't get out of the UK fast enough. I grew up in the deep South but was still shocked at the amount of daily racism I saw. Not just white to black, but in every direction. Lots of daily unpleasantness... And of course the right-wing in the UK is notorious!
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)There is racism here (of course) but certainly nothing like I experienced living in Alabama, for instance.
I love London. It's not really much like the rest of the UK, from what I hear.
The right-wing in the UK has got NOTHING on the right-wing in America!
Unlike you, I wouldn't live in continental Europe. I lived in France, and it was awful. So much red tape to get ANYTHING done, dealing with the worst sorts of petty bureaucrats, and constant strikes. Way too left-wing for me. Some people love it, I know, but it's not for me.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)I worked in LondonMet in North London (horrible school, some nice people) and my wife worked for University College London... we both saw endless racism... I had a co-worker - white middle aged hippy type - that HATED Siekhs... and talked about how they would rape you and stab you and how they smelled like death, all the time... and that's just one simple example... I was SHOCKED! I went from Arkansas to Boston to London... I really was offended on an almost daily basis by the shit I heard... I lived in East London... every trash talked muslims... even the Indians seemingly all hated all other Asians... Then North London... lot's of casual racism there... people hating on Pakistanis, for example...
Ugh ugh ugh.
And the right-wings aren't that different... anti-immigrant, anti-NHS, pro-private corporate run schools... bleugh.
France is a VERY tough nut to crack... Germany on the other hand is relatively simple... lovely lovely place... highly recommended... One of my jobs is musician... I've toured Germany a few times and it's a real eye-opener... every venue has free accommodation, free meals (sometimes breakfast lunch and dinner), free booze, big engaged crowds and top notch facilities... such a different experience from the US...
I don't mind the strikes (we get them here in Ireland), but the solution is something like they have in Scandinavia, where pay packages are negotiated in advance of contracts, between unions and companies, with the government as an intermediary when need be... high standard of living, very little in the way of worker abuse and very low unemployment... and universal healthcare and free education - or remarkably affordable.
Anyway, I much prefer continental Europe and Scandinavia I guess... Ireland is a decent enough blend of UK/US and Europe.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Trade-offs. Germany has a 28% university attendance rate (the US is about 50%), and you take a test when you're 10 that more or less determines whether or not you get to go to college (it tracks you into one of three kinds of high school). Of course they also have very good technical and trade schools, and apprenticeship programs.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Standards dropped a LOT when it became fee-paying.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)These are much more complex questions than people seem to think they are.
forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)If technical and trade schools can fill in that 22% gap, what's the problem? Yes college is seen as more prestigious, and a well rounded education has value outside the job market, but college isn't a one-size fits all solution for every student, and forcing it to be is part of the problem.
I really hate this whole "It'll be harder to get into college under a free college plan" argument and ignoring that there are more educational options than college in Europe.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'm livid every time I'm asked to sit in on a technical interview in which a web programmer or whatever was advertised as requiring a BS in computer science -- that's patently absurd. Somebody with a BS in CS can write an operating system, for God's sake (or at least should be able to).
A web programmer needs a six-month coding boot camp and maybe a six-month apprenticeship in the "team" side of things (version control, testing, how to actually estimate time requirements, etc.) Not a college degree, and not the debt that comes with one.
forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)Basically the trades and technical schools need to be considered viable alternatives to college starting in kindergarten, right now if you go to school for welding or whatever, even if you'll end up making 50-75k on a union contract, people see it as something you do because you weren't smart enough for college.
DemocraticWing
(1,290 posts)At least in the UK it's more obvious: the Left wants free college and the Right wants to make you pay for it. Too many here think "liberalism" is the same thing as socialism.
eggman67
(837 posts)She certainly has enough money for a one-way plane ticket.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)eggman67
An "America, love it or leave it" type, Where did I hear that before?
eggman67
(837 posts)But you didn't hear it here, 'cause I didn't say it. If they want her, I'm generously willing to donate her so they can have their share of the joys of blowing up the middle east and screwing over their working people.
riversedge
(70,285 posts)eggman67
(837 posts)I'm willing to make the sacrifice and keep Bernie.
riversedge
(70,285 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)HMMM
peacebird
(14,195 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)Once you live in Europe you realize how nonsensical Hillary's no we can't nonsense truly is.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Many expats (like me) are still registered in their home state and vote in those primaries.
GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)....as if only Hillarian supporters are the only ones not registered democrats abroad. Give me a break!
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I was responding to the poster who said that Democrats in Europe had already voted overwhelmingly for Bernie. My point was that there are many expat voters who are registered in their own states for the primaries, which is true.
See no reason for your hostility.
GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)It came across that you are implying democrats abroad primary means nothing because not every democrat abroad is registered as democrat abroad
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)"I think the poll represents Europeans not Americans."
Reading is fun·da·men·tal.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)Have very very little exposure to the US primaries. I hear the news here all the time and Sanders name is never mentioned. Because the US primary news lasts about 10 secs.
Trump is in the news but only because of the insane shit he says. And even then it's only a blip on the radar...
That poll is purely name recognition.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)and every cable station having an international channel, what the fuck would Europe know about American politics. Do you even hear yourself?
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)And travel around Europe for my job.
I talk to actual Europeans all the time...
They are not obsessed with the details of US politics. In fact very very few would be able to even name Sanders.
Or Ted Cruz.
I say this not through some abstract notion of the prevalence of US owned media organizations but because I talk to Europeans every single day.
People are interested in what's going on in their town and country and in Europe and the middle east. They are not obsessively following the Democratic primaries. And most cable news here isn't obsessed with it either btw.
Sky News isn't. The BBC isn't. Al Jazeera isn't. EURONEWS isn't. CNN International isn't. Etc etc.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Which are two demographics Sanders does very well with. Ironically American European expats tend to be more liberal than the Europeans they live among.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)riversedge
(70,285 posts)GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)what is the sample size and margin of error?
hereforthevoting
(241 posts)It all seems to get more convoluted.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Panel Methodology
YouGov Public Opinion research is conducted according to Market Research Society guidelines, providing national studies for commercial clients and the media.
How does YouGov conduct Public Opinion research?
YouGov conducts its public opinion surveys online using something called Active Sampling for the overwhelming majority of its commercial work, including all nationally and regionally representative research. The emphasis is always on the quality of the sample, rather than the quantity of respondents.
When using Active Sampling, restrictions are put in place to ensure that only the people contacted are allowed to participate. This means that all the respondents who complete YouGov surveys will have been selected by YouGov, from our panel of registered users, and only those who are selected from this panel are allowed to take part in the survey.
Who takes part in Public Opinion research?
Over the last ten years, YouGov has carefully recruited a panel of over 360,000 British adults to take part in our surveys. Panel members are recruited from a host of different sources, including via standard advertising, and strategic partnerships with a broad range of websites.
When a new panel member is recruited, a host of socio-demographic information is recorded. For nationally representative samples, YouGov draws a sub-sample of the panel that is representative of British adults in terms of age, gender, social class and type of newspaper (upmarket, mid-market, red-top, no newspaper), and invites this sub-sample to complete a survey.
To reiterate, with Active Sampling only this sub-sample has access to the questionnaire via their username and password, and respondents can only ever answer each survey once.
Once the survey is complete, the final data are then statistically weighted to the national profile of all adults aged 18+ (including people without internet access). All reputable research agencies weight data as a fine-tuning measure and at YouGov we weight by age, gender, social class, region, level of education, how respondents voted at the previous election and level of political interest. Targets for the weighted data are derived from four sources:
How is the data analysed?
Once the survey is complete, the final data are then statistically weighted to the national profile of all adults aged 18+ (including people without internet access). All reputable research agencies weight data as a fine-tuning measure and at YouGov we weight by age, gender, social class, region, party identity and the readership of individual newspapers. Targets for the weighted data are derived from three sources:
The census
Large scale random probability surveys, such as the Labour Force Survey, The National Readership survey and the British Election Study
The results of the 2015 general election.
Offical ONS population estimates
Active Sampling ensures that the right people are invited in the right proportions. In combination with our statistical weighting, this ensures that our results are representative of the country as a whole. Not just those with internet access, but everyone. While it is true that not everyone does have access to the internet, independent academic research shows that its widespread uptake means the views of those with access to the internet and now mostly indistinguishable from those without. Obtaining good-quality samples is a challenge for all methodologies. Response rates for telephone polls for example, have been declining in recent years - to typically below 10% - and often much lower in inner city areas. The ability to extrapolate from the under 10% of telephone respondents that pollsters can get hold of, to the 90% that they cannot, is clearly a challenge - leading to concerns over the quality of achieved samples, whether telephone or face-to-face. There are, of course, some areas where an online approach is inappropriate, and we would always alert our clients to this. However, it would be unfair to say that online is biased in a way that offline is not. The fact is, there are different biases for which all approaches have to account.
For Scottish polls we weight using recalled constituency vote at the 2011 Holyrood election, with separate weighting for voters who split Labour at Westminster elections and SNP at Holyrood elections. For polls of Greater London we additionally weight by ethnicity.
For information as to how our methodology has been adapted for Wales please see our commentary by Laurence Janta-Lipinski.
How YouGov prompts for voting intention
When we ask voting intention for Westminster elections we prompt people with the names of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the SNP and Plaid Cymru or "some other party". People selecting some other party are then shown a second screen offering the choice of other smaller political parties or "other".
The selection of which parties we prompt for is based purely upon what past research and comparison with election results has produced the most accurate results; there is no formal criteria or level of support at which a party is prompted for. Past experience has shown us that prompting for smaller parties in the main question overestimates their level of support when compared to actual elections, while our method has consistently accurately measured levels of support for minor parties (even in cases, like European elections, when they have broken through to win widespread support).
Respondents are asked to say how likely they are to vote on a scale of zero to ten and their answers to voting intention questions are additionally weighted based on their answer. Respondents who did not vote at the previous general election are additionally weighted down by 50%.
In designing our methodology, for Westminster, regional and European elections, our priority is always what our experience and research leads us to believe will produce the most accurate results.
For information on European Election polling please see Peter Kellner's commentary.
How accurate are your results?
YouGov has a strong history of accurately predicting actual outcomes across a wide range of different subjects, including national and regional elections, political party leadership contests and even the results of ITV talent show The X Factor.
Panel privacy
YouGov abides by the Market Research Societys strict guidelines on confidentiality. We never divulge anything that might identify the views of individual respondents. YouGov is also a founder member of the British Polling Council and we abide by its rules.
YouGov is also part of ESOMAR - you can view full details of the YouGov answers to the ESOMAR 28 questions here
For additional information on YouGovs methodology see the research Q&As here.
https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Seriously, Europeans who know who Bernie Sanders is are massive fans from the many examples I've seen.
hereforthevoting
(241 posts)Give premature condolences for him not getting a fair shot at this election.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)The plural of anecdotes is not data.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)When one of those candidates is world famous and the other is not is not data either. Well it is data, but it's deeply flawed and misrepresentative data. The European media has covered Trump a lot because of his extremism, but Bernie has received limited press in the US let alone overseas.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)The Sanders are well known international players.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)To claim he has any international recognition is outrageous, and his brother has nothing to do with it. Anyway, his brother is not a significant political player: only a minister of a minority party.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Thank you in advance.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)lol
CompanyFirstSergeant
(1,558 posts)...have a world war every 20 years if it were not for the US.
The point...?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Proof?
Considering we have 662 military bases in 38 countries we are doing a good job of keeping the world all riled up by ourselves.
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #51)
CompanyFirstSergeant This message was self-deleted by its author.
JackInGreen
(2,975 posts)Want some of my friends info? They're in belgium, netherlands, denma....oh wait.....maybe not.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Last edited Fri Apr 1, 2016, 10:04 AM - Edit history (1)
let them spend their blood and treasure.
In February NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that over the past two years, "defense spending by NATO's European member nations has shrunk by some 45 billion dollars" - the equivalent of Germany's entire annual defense budget.
Gates' argument that by slashing their defense budgets European countries are allowing the U.S. to pick up the slack comes when the United States is already spending more on defense than all other nations on the planet combined, according to Boston University professor Andrew Bacevich.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gates-criticizes-nato-how-much-does-us-pay/
Bernie has said other countries need to pay their fair share. OMG, a U.S. President that would put Americans first. The horror.
global1
(25,265 posts)cosmicone
(11,014 posts)CompanyFirstSergeant
(1,558 posts)...to understand the European mentality, you have to watch the TV show produced in Norway entitled Occupied.
No spoilers, but the Russians appear a lot in the series.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)That might affect their standard of living. We can't have that.
CompanyFirstSergeant
(1,558 posts)Looking out over a field of shiny new (Humvees, construction equipment, personnel carriers, etc)
The nicer the stuff, the greater likelihood it was destined to be parked at an allied base half way around the world.
We got to keep (and use) the old crap.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)islandmkl
(5,275 posts)they will have American elections over there? I'm not there now so i missed the whole ex-pats things...but I didn't realize Europeans got to vote in American elections!!
oh...this was just some bullshit poll measuring the choice of people who have no choice...
is there one for Middle Eastern countries, too?
how about Russia...or China...or Southeast Asia?
old Hill ought to be strong in all of those areas...
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I know you and your associates want to rob certain groups of Americans of their agency because you believe they aren't intellectually up to snuff. I didn't know that extends to our friends across the sea. I thought they were the so called "enlightened ones". It seems some folks are only as enlightened as to the extent they agree or disagree with you and your associates.
islandmkl
(5,275 posts)I am not questioning anyone's right to an opinion...I was questioning the nature of the poll...YouGov has a lot of potential participation...but the site with this poll is a little light on specifics of who, what, how many, etc. were polled...
maybe I missed all that info...has nothing to do with any matter of 'enlightenment'...
and, keeping the shoe on your foot, it could be said that some folks only are as enlightened as to the extent they agree or disagree with YOU and your associates...
we could do this all day, but I'm guessing we both have better things to do...
we can engage in some other post, I'm sure...
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)He made a speech to the U N at that time and nearly brought the house down. The late William Buckley said that was the world's way of sticking it to America. Go figure.
Flyingbird5066
(75 posts)We must all vote for Hillary because people in our ancestry countries would!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)We must all vote for Hillary because people in our ancestry countries would!
You must have never been to Europe or cracked a book if you believe it is homogeneous
Response to Flyingbird5066 (Reply #79)
CompanyFirstSergeant This message was self-deleted by its author.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)My neighbors across the street are Muslims and my next door neighbors are Chinese, and when I go to the grocery store I see a lot of different ethnic background people. I'm just saying...they all aren't white.
CompanyFirstSergeant
(1,558 posts)..now, my neighbors on all sides are trees.
Oh, I like it that way.
Flyingbird5066
(75 posts)sat they want the Repub to win the U.S presidential election.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)Read it and learn something.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israelis-prefer-hillary-for-president-study-finds/
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Nanjeanne
(4,974 posts)Flyingbird5066
(75 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Most expats (like me) are registered in their home states and vote in the primary there.
Response to auntpurl (Reply #103)
w4rma This message was self-deleted by its author.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)I'm just saying.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Shadowflash
(1,536 posts)nt.
treestar
(82,383 posts)Amazed they've heard of him.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)Autumn
(45,120 posts)Marr
(20,317 posts)lol.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)TheFarseer
(9,323 posts)For us to continue on as world policeman, have tons of troops in Europe defending them for free and to let multinational corporations do as they please instead of standing up for US interests. Also, how would they have even heard of Bernie Sanders?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)dchill
(38,518 posts)BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Hillary has these big poll leads, then Sanders campaigns against her and the leads drop like a lead balloon.
Bernie would win Europe like he won New Hampshire.