We have now moved to the portion of the Primary where Hillary has to win states or she is not viable

[Joe the Revelator]

Coming off her string of lopsided defeats, she has to win everything going forward to NOT give reasons to the supers to take another, or maybe even a first, look at Bernie.

I'll Revelate a bit here: if she loses NY, she is all but done. If Bernie can pull out a PA miracle, (she needs it more than he does) then THIS could be the stretch that ends the parties long national Clintonian nightmare.

[upaloopa]

1. When she wins NY, NJ and PA she puts it away

[revbones]

7. It's not put away until after California

But count your chickens anyway...

[Garrett78]

19. If she's ahead by 350 or so pledged delegates at the end of April...

...California won't be relevant.

[revbones]

20. So in that case you shouldn't have anything to worry about and

just be able to sit back until June 7th...

[Garrett78]

30. I'm not worrying about anything.

I'm just saying that it's highly unlikely the California primary will be consequential.

[StevieM]

45. I think Hillary will win California but, regardless, I don't see how Bernie can catch her PD lead.

[Garrett78]

50. If Clinton's ahead by 350 at the end of April, CA simply won't be consequential.

I wouldn't bet on Sanders winning CA, much less winning it in a landslide. And a landslide is what he'll need if he's trailing by 300+ (or even 200+) delegates heading into the CA primary.

[StevieM]

57. Agreed. (eom)

[1StrongBlackMan]

2. LOL ... Wait, What? ...

She has won more states, with more 2.6+ Million more popular votes and more pledged delegates ... and SHE has to prove she's the more popular candidate because Bernie won 3 states with less population than Texas?

Surely, you jest!

[HubertHeaver]

18. Late season losses are more devastating than the early season losses.

Who is rising, who is running out of energy.

[1StrongBlackMan]

32. Of course they are ...

because delegate count and popular vote no longer matter in primaries.

[redstateblues]

3. and the Braves are gonna win the World Series too?

Ain't gonna happen either. From a lifelong Braves fan and Democrat

[hrmbaja]

15. I remember the 90s.

The Braves did win a lot of World Series that decade. Glavine. Maddox. Smoltz. You couldn't LOSE.

[Cursive]

24. They went to the World Series 5 times

They only won once in 1995.

[onehandle]

4. Having millions more votes in the Democratic primary is the ultimate viable. nt

[hrmbaja]

16. How did that work out for Clinton in 2008?

[cosmicone]

5. Actually, she can lose all the remaining states 55-45

and she still wins the nomination.

#feelthemath

[hrmbaja]

17. Exceed 55%, and Clinton's pretty much history.

[reformist2]

6. He's basically tied with her nationally now, so people shouldn't act surprised by this OP.

[geek tragedy]

8. I am going to store up football-spiking gifs and videos

for the end of this month

[SidDithers]

34. +1...

It's gonna be fun when reality finally sets in.

Sid

[Hydra]

9. I think you hit a nerve here

Hillary's entire campaign strategy relies on her being the only choice. Even if Bernie only wins every other contest from now on, the narrative is still broken.

She is no longer "inevitable" or even highly desirable as a GE candidate if she can't get massive sweeps every week.

[redstateblues]

11. Feel the math

[Hydra]

13. lol, only statistics geeks like me think math is sexy

Now, suddenly it's a thing.

[jillan]

10. Shhhh - don't jinx it. I'm very superstitious that way.

One state at a time.

Make some phonecalls people!!

[Impedimentus]

12. Please, she won Mississippi.

FEEL THE BERN - 2016

[rbrnmw]

14. and a hellava lot more states too by big margins

[Impedimentus]

21. So Alabama will go for Hillary if she is the nominee, and Kentucky too ?

With wins in states like those why worry about electability in November, right ?

FEEL THE BERN - 2016

Louisiana rising

[KingFlorez]

22. Jesus Christ Bernie Superstar won Utah and Idaho

What is your point? In the context of the primary Clinton's wins below the Mason-Dixon line were critical to running up a huge delegate lead. The red state/blue state logic doesn't apply to the primary.

[JonLeibowitz]

26. Utah is in play with Trump as nominee, in fact.

[Garrett78]

27. The Deep South states are, for the most part, less 'red' than ID, UT, WY, KS, NE, etc.

With a win in the Wyoming Caucus, Sanders will have won the 4 reddest states in the US.

[JonLeibowitz]

28. Polling at the time of the UT caucuses said Trump could lose to Clinton/Sanders.

Just relaying what I read.

[Garrett78]

29. I read that, as well.

I'm just saying that the repeated suggestions that Clinton is the one relying on victories in unwinnable states is taking reality and flipping it on its head.

[JonLeibowitz]

31. Fully agreed.

[NuclearDem]

47. She also won Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia.

[Garrett78]

51. Yeah, she's winning blue states, purple states and the least red states.

Meanwhile, Sanders has accumulated most of his delegates in the reddest parts of the country.

[Marr]

60. What has she won for you lately?

[ucrdem]

23. Superdelegates.

But she won't need them because he's almost out of Minutemen.

[Joe the Revelator]

35. You don't seem to understand....the fact that she has stopped winning is going to flip some of her

super delegates.

[ucrdem]

36. Of course! The superduper doublecross!

She'll never win now!

[Joe the Revelator]

37. You really don't understand how super-delegates work. At all.

[Garrett78]

38. Superdelegates would only switch if...

...Sanders were to win a majority of the pledged delegates. And even then they may not switch unless he wins a clear majority (like 2100+). Until the convention, the superdelegates are irrelevant. If Clinton leads 2200 to 1850 or something like that, the superdelegates will close the deal by putting Clinton well over 2383.

I've only seen 1 example, something dubbed the "Bern Path," of how Sanders could reach 2026+ pledged delegates. Several people have posted it. The problem? It's completely unrealistic. As unrealistic as it is, it still has him just barely clearing 2026.

[morningfog]

40. Almost out of Minutemen? What do you mean?

[KingFlorez]

25. No, that's the position Sanders is in

With no more really caucuses left there is limited potential for Sanders to really pick up huge amounts of delegates as he did in the caucus format. New York is a closed primary and so is Pennsylvania, which is problematic for Sanders since he has lost self-identified and registered Democrats everywhere.

[morningfog]

41. He has won closed primaries, closed caucuses and semi-open and semi-closed caucuses.

[KingFlorez]

42. He has not won a closed primary

That's a lie right there. The only semi-closed primaries he's won are New Hampshire and Oklahoma. Closed primaries are his weakness.

[morningfog]

44. Dems Abroad.

I accept your apology for calling me a liar. You liar.

[KingFlorez]

48. You'll get no apology

You said primaries, not primary and while Democrats Abroad is a primary it's result does not mirror the same sort that we have seen in individual States. Sanders has issues winning actual Democrats in state primaries.

[morningfog]

49. I accept your apology noneetheless.

Sanders has no problem winning actual Democrats. That is pure claptrap.

[notadmblnd]

52. Except Michigan

[KingFlorez]

54. I was talking about CLOSED PRIMARIES, not open ones

And when it comes to Michigan, Sanders lost Democrats by 18%. If that happens in closed primaries, he's probably not going to win.

[JoePhilly]

33. This is that new math the kids keep talking about.

[Garrett78]

39. Where the candidate with a big lead that's likely to get bigger may not be "viable."

[Gwhittey]

58. How is it some many HRC supporers don't know

There are 4051 Pledged delegates
And Sanders is trailing by 228. That is not a big lead If she had 600 maybe but 228 is very possible considering that only place Hillary has gone is down in polls. from 80% up to now even.

Christ this is like 5th time I seen someone say she is leading by a ton. And you all mock it with Math bullshit and you don't understand that 5.628239940755369% is not a lot.

[Garrett78]

61. I'm not a Clinton supporter and didn't say "a ton." Now that we got that out of the way...

Repeated requests for someone to demonstrate with delegate math how Sanders could reach 2026 pledged delegates have gone unanswered. I've seen just 1 solitary example, which has been posted several times and was dubbed the "Bern Path." It has Sanders finishing with a lead of +3. The problem is that it's totally unrealistic. It has Sanders winning NY *and* PA *and* NJ *and* CA by anywhere from 8 to 16 points (plus performing better than expected in MD and Washington DC).

228 is quite a bit when the person in the lead is favored to win most of the delegate-rich primaries. If her lead grows to, say, 350 by the end of April, California's primary won't even be consequential.

[lunamagica]

55. It's #BernieMath

[Gwhittey]

59. Oh many another one of you

And you even mocked it with a Math thing how cute. 5.628239940755369% that is not a big lead. And if you where not so stary eyed over the name Clinton you would realize that she is losing ground not winning it. If you start out at 80 - 20 and drop to even split you lost a shit tone of ground.

[brooklynite]

43. "the parties long national Clintonian nightmare."

Remind us all of who's leading the 2016 Primary in votes and delegates?

Remind us all of who won two Presidential terms after three straight losses?

[StevieM]

46. Her lopsided defeats have been in caucuses. Primaries in those states would have been much closer.

I don't think Hillary will lose NY. I think she will win by 15 points. But we'll see.

[CoffeeCat]

53. You may want to rethink that

Clinton had a built-in lead of 30+ points in New York. Like so many states--once the campaigns kick into high gear, her numbers erode.

Her lead is now down to 12. That's amazing. Bernie has dented her impressive leads in a short amount of time.

We've still got 19 days to go. Thats a long way to go. He'll win WI and WY, which will provide an added boost going into the last week of NY campaigning.

He's got momentum. He'll have more after Tues. I think he could take NY.

[StevieM]

56. I don't need to rethink it, we are going to have an election that will answer it for both of us.

Her lead in NY was more like 20 points, except for one bizarre outlier poll that said she was up by like 45. I never took that seriously.

Obviously Wyoming will be a landslide, given that it is a caucus state. I am not sure how much coverage it will get, given that it is happening on a Saturday.

Wisconsin will put an end to his lopsided victories, although you are right, he will gain some momentum.

But he gained momentum out of Michigan and then he went 0 for 5, including a decisive loss in Ohio. Clinton is about to lose 7 out of 8, but I don't see her losing NY as a result, or the states that follow it, like Pennsylvania.

I would be shocked if he took NY.

In any event, he needs landslide victories in order to surmount her pledged delegate lead. He isn't going to get them in Wisconsin or New York, and he only has one caucus state left, which is the smallest state (population wise) in the union.

The theory seems to be the Wisconsin will be a huge landslide, which will give him the momentum he needs to win New York. That will lead to a Clinton collapse, which will usher in landslide losses in states like Pennsylvania and California, states where she is currently ahead. (Never mind her enormous lead in Maryland). That will lead the super delegates to flock to him, including ones already supporting Clinton, based on his dominance in the home stretch of the race.

I don't see that happening. I see a narrow Sanders victory in Wisconsin, followed by a decisive Clinton win in New York, and then wins for Hillary a week later in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Rhode Island and Delaware (and possibly Connecticut, giving her a sweep).