2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMost Clinton voters think trade deals are good — and so do most Sanders voters
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/31/11338400/trade-poll-clinton-sandersBut a new Pew survey confirms that trade deals are broadly popular in the United States, especially with Democrats, and including with supporters of both Sanders and Clinton.
This is consistent with the view that such deals may have been very bad for a minority of Americans people with jobs in Asia-competing factories and residents of communities built around such factories who may be the only people for whom trade is actually a voting issue.
But this is important context for the future of trade policy, and raises the prospect that a Trump-Clinton general election could produce a larger realignment with Democratic officeholders joining rank-and-file Democrats in embracing trade deals while Republicans oppose them.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)isn't about trade.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)5 million souls lost their livelihood, ripped away through no fault of their own. For the purpose of making the obscenely rich even richer.
But its GOOD. Really!
dogman
(6,073 posts)Sure they might have a job, but what does that job pay? I guess that might be why they have let the Unions disappear. I guess that might explain Union voters going to Trump. The Party hasn't cared much about Unions for a while. They take the money and then run from the Union members like they are the plague.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)from the Democratic Party & Independents with his anti-free trade talk.
If its Hillary ag Trump in the GE, Dems will lose because of this.
dogman
(6,073 posts)They helped elect a Democratic President, Senate, and House, and couldn't get Card check passed.
The rhetoric can only carry so far.
Corporate Dems are no better than republicans on many issues & especially labor, if you look at their actions (& see through their pro-labor spin.)
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)dogman
(6,073 posts)Yes wages have gone up, but the unemployment level and inflation have too. The number of working members fell to the point they are trying to sell the Union Hall. A huge number have been forced to find new trades or travel hundreds of miles to find work in other locals that pay a lower rate than our home local. As unemployment has dropped overall, many have changed careers, most to lower paying jobs. They have lost homes, vehicles, and health insurance. We lived in a heavy manufacturing area. The factories are gone and have been replaced by warehouses for goods from foreign countries. Warehouse workers make far less than they did as machinists. Maintenance work in the factories has disappeared since warehouses require far less. Kids coming out of school have almost no jobs that would enable them to start a family and maintain a house hold like their parents. The lack of work has forced myself, and a number of people I know, to retire early. Most property has devalued by about 25%. It is the lack of work that has brought the prices down. There has been a decline in the undocumented workers, since many have returned to Mexico for work. Go look at Flint or Detroit, I don't think people there need convincing.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)It spiked in 2008-2010 but it's gone back down lower than it was in the 1980s and early 1990s at any point.
Inflation has essentially stopped for the past decade or so; and anyways the wages and incomes at the quintiles are inflation-adjusted.
dogman
(6,073 posts)If you believe inflation is low you are buying into the Government basket. Any one who pays bills knows better. Do you know how the Government does its calculation? It has lied about the true cost for decades now. Are you aware that they say that goods that cost more should not be seen as higher priced since they have been improved so they are worth more. Figures don't lie, but liars figure. A $40 an hour job that has been replaced by $10 an hour job still doesn't pay your bills.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)The skilled trades are absolutely booming and completely hurting for people to work them.
If you believe inflation is low you are buying into the Government basket
Oh Lord, this again
Fine, tell me which commodities and services you think BLS somehow forgot to include in their basket?
(Yes, housing, food, energy, education, and health care are counted)
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W) BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:
FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry)
TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories);
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).
Also included within these major groups are various government-charged user fees, such as water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, and vehicle tolls. In addition, the CPI includes taxes (such as sales and excise taxes) that are directly associated with the prices of specific goods and services. However, the CPI excludes taxes (such as income and Social Security taxes) not directly associated with the purchase of consumer goods and services.
The CPI does not include investment items, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and life insurance. (These items relate to savings and not to day-to-day consumption expenses.)
For each of the more than 200 item categories, using scientific statistical procedures, the Bureau has chosen samples of several hundred specific items within selected business establishments frequented by consumers to represent the thousands of varieties available in the marketplace. For example, in a given supermarket, the Bureau may choose a plastic bag of golden delicious apples, U.S. extra fancy grade, weighing 4.4 pounds to represent the Apples category.
dogman
(6,073 posts)I know the situation. Our Apprentice program has almost disappeared. Our main work is warehouses and public works was almost all we've had for a decade. As I noted before there is work if you will leave your home and family and travel to areas that pay less. This makes that lower pay even harder to live on. As far as the basket there are items like a tv. Even though the tv costs more the price is adjusted to reflect the fact that the tv offers more features and a better picture than it used to. Where else in the world is more equal less because it is better. The COLA on SS was non-existent this year because costs have not gone up according to the government. I know my health insurance premiums went up. I know the cost of food and entertainment have gone up. I know rent has gone up. It is a hoax designed to lower government spending. The 1% do not have these problems, They can afford it and see no reason that other can't.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)That gets to your point: yes, you have to travel to where work is, like people have been doing for a century now. That's why I don't live in the town I grew up in: there's no work there.
Even though the tv costs more the price is adjusted to reflect the fact that the tv offers more features and a better picture than it used to
No, that's hedonic adjustment, which BLS publishes separately and is not a part of the CPI. By the hedonic numbers inflation has been negative for quite some time (and there's something to that).
dogman
(6,073 posts)It does not allow for the devalued assets the individual owns. "That's why I don't live in the town I grew up in: there's no work there." That's what I am talking about and it has been worse since NAFTA. Sure immediately after NAFTA there was new work, disconnecting manufacturing equipment for shipment to other nations, building warehouses for products from other nations. Of course those warehouses require fewer workers who are paid less than the manufacturing jobs. Many of these big projects are one and done, then you might travel hundreds of miles in another direction to the next big one. I worked over 40 years and never had to leave my home or family once. The apprentice program has shrunk to a less than one for each retiree. The International has opened new classifications of workers in order to reduce wages. Most of the present boom is alternate energy projects that require fewer workers, many installing products made in other countries. When I started work, we did not install equipment that did not have the union label. This included light fixtures. I see the call outs for hotspots, they are one of the things that make me grateful for retirement.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)when all of their export-driven jobs go away after Sanders launches trade wars with Asian countries and dares them to enter China's sphere of influence.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)If Bernie is elected donut holes will disappear and dogs won't have any fire hydrants to pee on.
FEEL THE BERN - 2016[/p
P.S. Bernie won the 2016 Washington State caucus by 72.7 % and carried Seattle by about 2 to 1. I guess all of those Washington folks don't know what is good for them.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)There would just be more cargo going out than coming in.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)More going out than coming in...
Impedimentus
(898 posts)Be afraid, be very afraid. The scary trade wars are coming and we will all starve to death. Only General Hillary can save us.
FEEL THE BERN - 2016
ucrdem
(15,512 posts). . . but it makes an awesome bash. See Michigan and probably Wisconson.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)No ¢.
FEEL THE BERN - 2016
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)That screw workers and our own laws and regulations in favor of corporate interests does NOT equate to supporting trade wars and isolationism.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)the topic.
More Americans favor than oppose TPP, including among Dems.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Somehow in the Bernie bubble people believe that the whole country agrees with them about everything, and that everyone wants us to turn protectionist. But that's not reality.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)The country as a whole, and Democrats in particular, were moderately in favor of the Keystone XL shortcut (and the fact that Kerry nixed it will probably hurt us somewhat in the General), and are moderately in favor of the TPP. I think a lot of activists mistook the online and meet-up echo chamber for a majority that isn't actually there.
killbotfactory
(13,566 posts)or environmental regulations comparable to ours.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)And which is why every Asian signatory to the TPP has to either introduce or increase their minimum wage, and allow workers to organize unions independent of the government and affiliate internationally.
Note the corollary: the lack of an FTA doesn't keep companies from shipping jobs to those countries (India doesn't even have full PNTR, for that matter).
w4rma
(31,700 posts)The poll also shows the vast majority of Americans -- 82 percent -- say they would be willing to pay a little bit more for merchandise thats made in the U.S. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, the number dropped slightly, to 75 percent.
A plurality of Americans -- 44 percent -- say NAFTA has been bad for the U.S. economy, while 29 percent say it has been a positive development. The accord, which took effect in 1994, was unfamiliar enough to 27 percent that they had no opinion.
Democrats divided almost evenly, with 38 percent saying it has been good and 36 percent saying it has been bad. A majority of Republicans -- 53 percent -- selected bad, while 46 percent of independents went that way.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-24/free-trade-opposition-unites-political-parties-in-bloomberg-poll
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)have, for their entire representation on DU, just me, as far as I can tell.
pampango
(24,692 posts)It's nice to know that we are not alone in the broader non-DU world.
pampango
(24,692 posts)now are particularly opposed to them but that was obvious without looking at poll numbers.
Of course, republicans seem to be more opposed to almost all international agreements (climate agreements, the Iran agreement, Cuba, etc.) so it's hard to know how much of their opposition to free trade agreements is based on a broader opposition to ALL international agreements and how much is specific to trade agreements.
It is interesting to see the similarity in the numbers for Hillary and Bernie. I wondered if many Democrats support Bernie for his positions on many issues other than trade. Apparently so. I know I do.
This popular support from Democrats may be why Obama is pushing for an early vote on the TPP while republicans, recognizing popular opposition within their base, are pushing to delay a vote until after the election or later, if ever.
From the Pew site:
Among Republican voters, Trump supporters stand out for their negative views of free trade: 67% of Trump supporters say free trade agreements have been a bad thing for the U.S., while just 27% say they have been a good thing. Republican supporters of Ted Cruz (48% good thing vs. 40% bad thing) and John Kasich (44% good thing vs. 46% bad thing) hold more mixed views.
By a 58% to 31% margin, more Clinton supporters say free trade agreements have been a good thing than a bad thing for the U.S. Views among supporters of Bernie Sanders are similar (55% good thing vs. 38% bad thing).