Gallup thinks we're idiots - Mitt now leading 52-45 LV, 49-46 RV

[tarheelsunc]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Meanwhile, nearly every economic factor is improving...

[LenaBaby61]

1. ALL Gallup continues to prove

is that it's an OUTLIER....

Just remember how they did in 2000, 2004 & 2008....

I've never trusted Gallop and never WILL...

[tarheelsunc]

3. They're completely in the bag for the Republicans... it's sickening

They used to at least have some credibility, but now they don't even make an attempt to correct their results that have been so far off from reality for days.

[octoberlib]

2. The DOJ is prosecuting Gallup for fraud

Enough said.

[OldDem2012]

22. Gallup is bad, but do you have a link backing up your comment? nt.

[ProSense]

4. Gallup sucks. In

2004 they had Bush leading Kerry 52 to 44. After all the nasty shit Republicans pulled to swing the election for Republicans, Bush's margin was only 1.5 percent.

NBC at the time:

This poll — conducted Oct. 16-18 among 1,004 respondents, with a margin of error of plus- or minus-3.1 percentage points — comes on the heels of several other major surveys that have been released after the three presidential debates. Among likely voters in a three-person race, the CBS/New York Times poll has Bush at 47 percent and Kerry at 45 percent; the latest ABC/Washington Post tracking poll has Bush at 50 percent and Kerry at 47 percent; and CNN/Gallup/USA Today has Bush at 52 percent and Kerry at 44 percent.

NBC has the current race tied among likely voters. The link to the 2004 article is in this Daily Kos piece.

Bush/Kerry 2004 & Obama/Romney 2012

by rennert

NBC/WSJ today has a poll out that shows President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47% among likely voters. Among the larger universe of registered voters, Obama leads by 5, 49% to 44%.

How does this compare to the last incumbent's reelection campaign in 2004?

Well, luckily we can do an apples to apples comparison because there was an NBC/WSJ poll released on Oct. 20, 2004.

That poll showed President Bush and John Kerry tied at 48% (almost exactly mirroring today's poll).

In that poll, just as in today's, the incumbent led among registered voters.

But there are differences:

In the 2004 poll, Bush led among registered voters by 2 pts, 48% to Kerry's 46%.

In today's poll, Obama leads among registered voters by 5 pts, 49% to Romney's 44%.

Bush ended up winning reelection by 1.5%, slightly less than his registered voter lead of 2%.

(This also proves that the race does not necessarily break to the challenger).

If (and it's a big "if&quot this election follows that template, Obama would win reelection by about 3-4%. But I won't even be that optimistic. Let's assume there's a 2 point tilt towards Republicans because of "enthusiasm". Obama would still win by 1-2%, matching Nate Silver's prediction all along that this race would settle down to Obama +2%.

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/21/1147869/-Bush-Kerry-2004-Obama-Romney-2012

[Cha]

23. THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Thanks ProSense! nm

[boingboinh]

5. MSM has their weekly Cat-Nip -- You watch: Monday will be all about Gallups +7 Record High Lead

[meadowlark5]

6. Has Gallup been "bought" by the Kochs?

I mean honestly, how can they be so incredibly off from all the other polls? I think someone at Gallup is getting their bread buttered by some nefarious characters to blow these poll numbers so out of the water.

[tarheelsunc]

8. There is no way their polls are legitimate when all others are tied or have Obama leading

[meadowlark5]

9. That's why I was wondering if there hasn't been bribery involved

Even MSM is commenting on the absurdity of their polling numbers compared to about 18 others.

[LenaBaby61]

10. Even FOX (FAUX) polling has President

Obama up by +3 the last time I checked last Thursday. NOT sure what it is today.

Gallup and PEW have been exposed, and their polling/methodology as well. I'm especially disappointed in the PEW polling/methodology this entire race cycle, because they had been one of better non-biased polling firms I believe . PEW had POTUS up by +8 I believe, and I never believed that for one minute. NOW they have Rob-me up by +4, and plus they have the POTUS tied with Rob-me in terms of the Women's vote?

[Shivering Jemmy]

7. They are an embarrassment at this point

And I suspect their stats guys are wondering what to do about it.

[Doctor Jack]

11. Saturday Night Live's take on the Gallup numbers

"A new Gallup poll shows that Mitt Romney now has a 7 point lead on President Obama," Seth Meyers said. "That's right, Romney leads by 7 points among people who still answer landline calls from a blocked number."

[renate]

12. lol! that's great

And probably true!

[ShadowLiberal]

15. Yep, landline only and no weighting to fix the problem would explain it

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Gallup Sucks But They Do Include Cell Phones

.

[BraKez2]

13. Guys the diagnosis is simple...

they have #Romneisa and forgot how to poll..

[libdem4life]

14. I'll take this one...Investor's Business Daily

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251160630

I mean, as long as they are just making numbers up, might as well pick and choose.

[EC]

16. Gallup figures in the fraud

the GOP is pulling in states. I'm sure the GOP has figures of the percentage they've been able to get rigged without getting caught as yet and has Gallup figure in those figures to justify their win. All I'm hoping is that like in 2008 we manage to outnumber those percentages they've rigged.

On edit: Then once we do win, hopefully with the Senate and win back the House, we better tackle elections and make them federally controlled instead of states and come up with ONE UNIFORM way to vote everywhere.

[DFW]

17. not so much that they think we're idiots

But how better to justify fraudulent voter tallies when they are "reported?"

They had enough "surprise upsets" in 2000, 2002 and 2004. They know that won't fly any more.

Sooooo--instead, make those fraudulent results to be what you predicted all along. Presto !

[Fringe]

19. Even with all Gallup's shenanigans, Obama is slightly a head on the RCP average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html


We have to keep getting our message out there. It's working!!

[MFM008]

20. Gallup is just trying to keep Obamas average down.

Its hard to believe, unless Gallup is polling MORMONS ONLY. This spread is just to keep the RCP average down.
I never believe ANY poll either Gallup or Rasmussan has on anything.

[WI_DEM]

21. The only poll to show this, Gallup will either be proven right or incredibly wrong if there

numbers don't change in the next two weeks.

[Cha]

24. My thought is .. is Gallup doing this

to also help in trying to Steal the Election?!