Bernie and Hillary prep for New York clash

[geek tragedy]

pay attention to where those goalposts are being moved

Now, in advance of the New York’s April 19 presidential primary, operatives for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are closely studying Teachout’s longshot campaign. “They’re very worried about a Zephyr Teachout situation,” said one Clinton ally close to the campaign. “The left is very mobilized. In New York [for Clinton] it’s not just about winning. They have to win 65 to 35.”

...

Clinton needs to win her home state decisively to demonstrate there is enthusiasm boosting her campaign ahead of a bruising general election. The most recent statewide poll, conducted by Emerson College, showed her leading Sanders 71 percent to 23 percent in New York. Sanders’ allies said the goal for the primary is to eat into Clinton’s delegate take by winning at least 40 percent of the vote -- a percentage they cite as a “credibility threshold.” And they shrug off the daunting poll numbers, arguing that they have begun every primary contest trailing Clinton by seemingly insurmountable margins.

...

“New York is Clinton country,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, who is unaffiliated with either campaign. “But if she slips in New York by not winning big, Secretary Clinton will have lots to explain to Democrats and Republicans will have a great day.”

To avoid that embarrassing outcome, Clinton has tapped longtime donor Jay Jacobs, chairman of the Nassau County Democrats, to oversee 27 coordinators across the state, one stationed in each congressional district. Another former aide, Resi Cooper, Clinton’s former statewide political director during her Senate campaign, is running the New York state operation. And elected officials like New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito and Public Advocate Letitia James, who have been campaigning for Clinton, are expected to help her move Latino and African-American women voters in New York City, respectively.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-and-hillary-prep-for-new-york-clash-221321

This seems like an article to show that (a) Sanders has already lost the nomination battle and (b) Clinton has to hit an impossibly high mark to have New York be considered a success. Does anyone really think Clinton winning by 20 points and 49 delegates wouldn't be considered a success? Does anyone think Sanders would consider that a good night, or even anything less than awful?

[Godhumor]

1. Strange piece. Anything less than a blowout win by Bernie is horrible news for him

If they're only aiming for 40% of the vote in NY, they're no longer aiming to win the nomination but to maximize time to spread his message or get a primo spot at the convention.

[geek tragedy]

2. it doesn't appear anyone quoted in that piece--Sanders 'allies' included

are treating a Sanders win in the national contest to be a possibility.

An 18 point Clinton win in NY would end the nomination race. Not sure how that becomes a bad night for her.

[Godhumor]

3. Honestly, at this point it is simply attrition

Even a 50-50 split in NY makes it near impossible for Bernie to catch up, as a huge number of delegates were just removed from the potential pool to make up ground.

Just a really weirdly written piece.

[geek tragedy]

4. Not to mention PA, CT, MD, DE the following weekend.

It seems very possible that Clinton's delegate lead will be up around 300 at the end of the month, if the reality in that article holds.

So we're really looking at two scenarios:

1) the one contemplated by that article, which will be the effective end of the Sanders campaign as of April 27th.

2) that article is not reflective of how things are going on the ground.

we'll see

[calguy]

5. BSers should prepare

for another beat down when the votes are counted in NY.

[noretreatnosurrender]

6. Read This Piece Earlier Today

Very interesting piece. It has lots of details about the on the ground effort for both sides. I found this to be very interesting too.

But there’s one high-profile wild card: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, whose Johnny-come-lately surrogacy for Team Clinton has produced some exasperating moments throughout the campaign.

On Monday, de Blasio appeared to scoff at a comment made by Clinton senior strategist Joel Benenson, who told reporters on a conference call that he expected Sanders to campaign “like a Brooklynite,” in contrast to Clinton, who would campaign in New York like a senator. “I assume the phrase campaigning like a Brooklynite is a compliment,” de Blasio said at a news conference, the latest in a series of off-message moments from the mayor whose personal beliefs seem to mirror those of Sanders more than those of the candidate he ultimately endorsed.

Clinton allies said de Blasio further enraged Clinton world when his wife, Chirlane McCray, hinted in an interview with the website Jezebel.com that her daughter, Chiara, may be leaning toward supporting Sanders. “It looked like they were hedging,” said one Clinton ally.

[geek tragedy]

9. De Blasio has been all over the place on this

He made a point of not endorsing Clinton, then went uninvited to Iowa to canvass for her.

[noretreatnosurrender]

12. Should be interesting

to see what he does during the NY campaign.

[noretreatnosurrender]

7. K & R

I would encourage all Sanders supporters to read this piece. Very interesting.

[hrmjustin]

8. I expect Hillary to win here by 15-20%

[geek tragedy]

10. Which would be considered a loss according to Politico.

Remarkable really.

[hrmjustin]

11. Lol. Hillary will win most of the Congressional districts in the city and I think you get delegates

if you win a district.

[geek tragedy]

13. City and Long Island will be brutal for Bernie nt

[hrmjustin]

14. And the lower hudson Valley.

[geek tragedy]

15. Baseline is Teachout/Cuomo.

I'm trying to think how Clinton would underperform Cuomo. Not coming up with much.

I do think if Sanders doesn't crack 40% he will have a very difficult time justifying anyone paying attention to his campaign.

[hrmjustin]

16. He would win cities like New Paltz but Westechester would go Hillary.

[geek tragedy]

18. he has a rally in the Bronx this week.

should be interesting to see what that crowd looks like

[hrmjustin]

21. Very interesting. The Bronzx is where he should play.

Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island are lost to him.

[geek tragedy]

23. why would the Bronx be friendlier than other boroughs? nt

[hrmjustin]

24. Lower income per capita. He might have a better chance.

[noretreatnosurrender]

17. Should be an interesting 10 days

The time and attention spent on New York this year will more closely resemble the early state operations of both campaigns, where the candidates put in real time meeting voters, and their operatives could organize on the ground — there are no other primary contests in the 10 days leading up to New York, where 247 delegates are on the line.

[noretreatnosurrender]

19. I know the Hillary Campaign

doesn't want to debate before NY but it sure would make great TV. I hope they change their mind or the voters help them to change their mind. I sure would love to see it.

[geek tragedy]

22. the deal will probably be New York if they talk about foreign policy,

terrorism, security etc.

[noretreatnosurrender]

25. That Will Work Too

I like Bernie's positions on Foreign policy better than Hillary's.

[geek tragedy]

26. so do I, frankly, at least where he's sat down

and thought about it.

[FSogol]

20. The Clash in NYC! Awesome