Maryland looks ready to affirm Marriage Equality and Dream Act laws

[JaneQPublic]

Recent polls offer good news regarding a couple of upcoming ballot questions here in Maryland on whether to uphold or repeal recently passed laws for Marriage Equality and in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants.

On the question whether to uphold Maryland’s same-sex marriage law, 52 percent say "yes" and only 43 percent say "no."

And on our state's version of The Dream Act, 59 percent are in favor and 35 percent are opposed. Yay, Maryland!

Maryland voters are poised to approve same-sex marriage at the ballot box next month, a potential watershed moment in the history of a right that has been granted by courts and state legislatures but never by a popular vote, a new Washington Post poll has found.

Maryland voters favor upholding the state’s gay marriage law by a nine-point margin, according to the poll, which could end a streak of defeats in more than 30 states and provide further evidence of the country’s evolution on the controversial topic. Recent surveys have also shown leads in Maine and Washington state, where voters will be presented with the same issue Nov. 6.

Voters in Maryland could also become the first state to approve a form of the Dream Act, which has been adopted in 13 other states but never been put to a statewide vote. The Post poll found that 59 percent of likely Maryland voters back the measure, which would allow undocumented imigrants to pay in-state tuition rates at public colleges; 35 percent are opposed.

SNIP...

Although The Post poll found that likely voters favor a ballot question on whether to uphold Maryland’s same-sex marriage law 52 percent to 43 percent, the race is hardly over. Historically, opposition to gay nuptials at the ballot box has been stronger than polls suggested, and an expected ad blitz from opponents of Question 6 has barely begun.

MORE AT:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/maryland-leans-toward-historic-embrace-of-same-sex-marriage-in-vote-next-month/2012/10/18/a91dedba-1885-11e2-9855-71f2b202721b_story.html

[VirginiaTarheel]

1. 52 percent is not good news for us

Previously in other states, polls have shown us with 52 percent support, yet we lost on Election Day. Experts say we need to be up to at least 57 to win because polls underestimate the antigay and inflate the Progam dude. Undecideds apparently end up voting antigay. There is a huge Bradley Effect with gay issues in polls.

[JaneQPublic]

4. Interesting.

Which states were these that had polls showing 52 percent before their ballot initiative failed?

Of course, along with Maryland, Maine and Washington also have ballot inititives in Nov. to vote on their marriage equality laws. Apparently, the polls are showing that support for the laws is leading in both of these states, but I'm not sure if they're at the 57 percent level your "experts" say is necessary.

BTW, who are these "experts"? I ask because (a) in politics there are lots of self-proclaimed experts who've never won an electon; and (b) I hope they're using their expertise to help Maryland win Yes on 6!

[justiceischeap]

2. And you have to wonder if people say "yes" because they don't really want anyone to know

they are going to vote "no"

That worries me in situations like this. There has been a huge push by many churches in Maryland to make sure that this doesn't pass.

[JaneQPublic]

3. Yes, but there has also been a push by pro-equality clergy in MD.

Check out this video, as well as others by MD clegy members in the right-hand column.

Of late there has been quite a few clergy members and pro sports players announce support for Question 6.

Of course, the opposition organization has a bunch of fundamentalists working against 6. And initially, a lotof African-American clergy were outspoken against it. However, those black clergy members have been much less vocal since both POTUS and NAACP threw their support behind marriage equality.

That said, the WP article linked in the OP quotes Pro-6 organizers as saying this is not the time to get complacent, as they intend to keep fighting for the law until the bitter end.

[VirginiaTarheel]

5. Yes the Progay side was up to 51 or 52 percent in polls

Before California and Maine (2009) voters repealed same sex marriage. But just about everywhere, the actual antigay vote on Election Day ended up being significantly larger than polls had indicated, including recently in North Carolina. The experts whom I referred to are are largely Progay activists who have cautioned people not to view polls as accurate on this issue. In fact, the Washington Post article cited above contains that very large caveat. The polls are notoriously unreliable on this issue.

[JaneQPublic]

6. Clearly the facts are on your side.

I only wish I had heard from you before I donated nearly $300 to what is apparently a lost cause.

Chances look equally dismal for the upcoming ballot measures in Maine (only 55 percent pro-gay) and Washington State (only 54 percent pro-gay) -- both below your 57 percent margin needed for an actual win.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2012/10/21/same-sex-marriage-supporters-seek-historic-victory-maine/xTqY38Kk72BB4pCA5YJxeP/story.html

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/10/19/friday-briefing-polls-gay-marriage-and-pot-close-do-facebook-politics-ads-work-not-so-much/

[mythology]

7. It's not that it's a lost cause, I took it as more of a caution

Both to not assume that it's over because the good guys are ahead and so to keep working on it, but also to remember that unfortunately things have looked good for same sex marriage being on the winning side in an election but hasn't happened yet.

Same sex marriage suffers from the same thing that historically, black candidates have suffered from in that it does better in polls than in elections. But black candidates have won elections and sooner or later so will gay marriage. I suspect that it is more likely to win this time because the world hasn't ended in any of the states that gay marriage has been legal in and it's slowly but surely expanding.

In particular, Washington a few years ago passed something that was just short of gay marriage, a majority of Latinos now support gay marriage for the first time and the change in Maine that this time the option is driven by pro-gay marriage side. When it lost before, by only around 30,000 votes, it was driven by the anti-marriage side. Additionally it was on the ballot in 2009 which is an off-cycle election which are typically older voters who usually vote more conservatively on gay marriage. And in admittedly anecdotal evidence, when I was in Maine a few weeks ago, there were a lot more pro-same sex marriage signs than the bigoted side of things.

[VirginiaTarheel]

8. NY Times Article

“In a 2010 paper, for instance, the New York University political scientist Patrick J. Egan compared polling in advance of state same-sex marriage referendums to the actual results, and found that the share of voters in pre-election surveys saying that they will vote to ban same-sex marriage is typically seven percentage points lower than the actual vote on election day.

That seven-point gap between appearances and reality may help explain why same-sex marriage supporters lost referendums they expected to win in liberal states like Maine and California

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/08/obamas-marriage-maneuvers/

[VirginiaTarheel]

9. Reuters Article

Josh Levin, the campaign manager for Marylanders for Marriage Equality, says he expects the vote to be "very close," despite a Baltimore Sun poll in late September that found voters support the state's ballot initiative 49 percent to 39 percent....
New York University professor Patrick Egan looked at polling from 1998 to 2009 and found opposition to same-sex marriage was underestimated by seven percentage points.

"The best guess about how polls translate into election results is to add just about all the people who say they are undecided to the share of people saying they're going to vote against gay marriage," Egan said in an interview.

UNDECIDED VOTERS MAY TIP ISSUE

"The shorthand is, unless the pro-gay marriage side is above 50 percent in the polls, then they have reason to fear that come election day they might find themselves on the losing side," said Egan, whose research was published in 2010.

There was no clear reason for this, Egan said. While some suspect a "social desirability bias," where respondents try to avoid appearing homophobic, there is no evidence it exists here.

Jim Williams, Issue Polling Specialist for Public Policy Polling, agreed. "My guess would be that certainly a lot of folks who say they're undecided are not going to vote for it," he said.

So as not to be overly confident the measure will pass, Matt McTighe, the campaign manager of Mainers United for Marriage, said he assumes those in the "undecided" column will vote for the other side.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/17/us-usa-gaymarriage-poll-idUSBRE89G1B720121017