NBC poll

[BelieveMe3]

So NBC is proclaiming that the race is tied at 47%. Where was their last poll? Has Pres. Obama gained ground?

[Mass]

1. They had Obama by +3 but it was in late September, before the first debate.

This is consistent with every other poll but Gallup, which all show a more or less tied race, from Romney by 2 with Gravis to Obama by 3 with Ipsos and IDB.

[mgcgulfcoast]

6. momentum is the most important thing

its going the wrong way for us. NBC has consistently shown Obama ahead until now.

[Mass]

8. If you believe so...

[ProSense]

10. Actually,

"NBC has consistently shown Obama ahead until now."

...likely voter was trending down. Obama was up 5 points in early September, up 3 points in late September.

The race was expected to tighten.

The President still has a decent lead among registered voters, which in...

August was +4
Early September +6
Late September +7
Current +5

That's not bad, and Mitt's number has been 44 through all these polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt

[progressivebydesign]

42. they've changed their model.. nt

[ProSense]

7. Exactly, this

is great news, and refutes Gallup's numbers. In fact, among registered voters it shows Obama 49 Romney 44. Mitt is in the same position he was in mid September when it was Obama 51, Romney 44.

Obama is down 2 points. Is it likely undecideds increased?

[Shivering Jemmy]

2. We will win a tie.

Race stable at least.

[helpisontheway]

20. Why do you think we will win a tie?

All Zi keep thinking about is Gore and Kerry. Seems like the Dem always loses in the end ( whether by Supreme Court or voting machines). I feel uneasy about a tie because of that. I will take it over Romney having a lead though. Plus the fact that Obama continues to lead among registered voters makes me feel better.

[BlueStreak]

37. Because there are 30+ states where Obama never ran any substantial advertising and

never did a campaign event. Those states will poll 5-10% higher for Romney than they otherwise would, and that is inflating the national numbers. But it doesn't matter. If Obama concedes a state, it doesn't matter whether he loses by one vote or 1 million.

The only thing that matters is the swing state polling, and that is pretty solid right now. Could be better in VA and FL, but it is good enough to win.

[Shivering Jemmy]

45. That's loser talk

Dems win when they have a clear electoral path and when they fight.


The reelect team has handled the first part of that. Your job is to handle the second.


You got the moxie for that?

[7worldtrade]

3. Obama leads by 5 among registered voters in the poll 49-44

Again, a 5 point spread between RV and LV is large by historical standards. shouldn't be more than 2%. Hopefully more people will become LVs in the last 2 weeks and will come home!

[BainsBane]

5. I've been canvassing people who would never pass a likely voter screening

But they want to vote. They may not know where their polling placees are, or even know if they are eligible to vote. I talked to a couple of guys with felonies who didn't think they could vote, but in MN as long as you've completed you entire sentence including parole or probation, you are legally entitled to vote. And because we have voter registration at the polls, they will be able to. In short, it's all about GOTV.

[bettyellen]

34. Getting O T Vote! Thank you!

[mgcgulfcoast]

4. so much for good news today.

[VirginiaTarheel]

13. So much for your constant negative trolling

[68 Rex]

24. You noticed that too, eh?

People like that make it hard to newbs to be taken seriously.

[68 Rex]

9. Nationwide polls don't mean Shit

The college still favors US.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

11. As do the kooky LV models

No way is the differential 5%.

[20895DEM]

12. LV model adding noise, RV relatively stable

August poll

LV = O+5
RV = O+6
Therefore, LV discount = -1 for Obama

September poll

LV = O+3
RV = O+7
Therefore, LV discount = -4 for Obama

October poll (just released)

LV = O+0
RV = O+5
Therefore LV discount = -5 for Obama

Summary RV model based on statistical sampling is fairly stable while LV model based on subjective "tweaking" is volatile.

[progressivebydesign]

41. Thank you! the voice of reason. Likely voter is confusing people here...

It s NOT people that said "they'd likely vote." It's based on the pollsters OWN idea of who really votes. they have a sample of 1,200 people,a and they REMOVE at least 400 of the responses, based on their own calculation of who THEY think will vote.

problem is.. and I'll say this again... they do NOT consider the people who are in there voting early right now (the young people, the people of color, the older people who are voting for Obama,) as "likely" in their statistical little minds. This is how they blew the polls away in 2008.

90% of the polling groups are tied to the republicans, and where they can manipulate things is IN the Likely Voters.. they can apply their own screens, and get the result they need to show a tightening race.

[WI_DEM]

14. just got done reading most of the responses in this thread

it's as if this election is over and Romney has won. A tie and the usual suspects act like its the end of the world. It's going to be a close election. We've had close elections where dems have won before. Instead of moaning and groaning work harder to elect dems.

[BelieveMe3]

15. RCP

is a depressing place today. Most articles talking like Obama losing. BUT I must say they pull from some questionable sources lately-bloggers who are right wing nuts, the Washington Examiner, not places known for objective reporting.

[ProSense]

17. FYI: RCP is

"BUT I must say they pull from some questionable sources lately-bloggers who are right wing nuts, the Washington Examiner, not places known for objective reporting."

...a RW site, always has been.

[Jennicut]

28. RCP is a right wing site.

Sigh, I have explained this too many times already to people. Go look up wikipedia.

[LenaBaby61]

30. RCP is mostly right-winged. SAVE yourself time and don't go there

as most others here are saying, RCP is mostly Right-winged. I pay them and their Obama-hating meme little to NO attention.

[progressivebydesign]

40. RCP is a TOTAL right wing site. Everyone has posted the comments from the head of it, repeatedly..

He is a HARDCORE right winger... and RCP is NOT a poll, it's a conglomeration of polls HE chooses to use!!! And the "likely voters" which skew toward republicans, are oversampled.

[doc03]

16. What is the deal with Gallop that keeps giving Rodney a 6-7 point lead, that one worries me n/t

[helpisontheway]

18. Why is it bothering you if that

Is the only poll that is giving Romney a lead like that. So many people (Nate Silver and others) believe the Gallup poll (specifically LV) is crap. So why do you keep focusing on that one?

[doc03]

22. I don't remember ever bringing the subject up before so how am I always focusing

on the Gallop poll? The thing is doesn't Gallop have about the best track recorc in polling?

[helpisontheway]

23. From what I have read

they have one of the worst records. Someone posted information about it recently.

[Jennicut]

29. It's Gallup. And no. Survey USA, Quinnipiac and YouGov

were very good in the last two elections. Gallup has been pretty off with their LV models. They admitted as much yesterday and said they may tweak it.

[WI_DEM]

19. NBC News Tweet in 04 on this very date Bush/Kerry were tied 48-48

NBC News Tweet (2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:Mariken, Supavash
"Mark Murray ?@mmurraypolitics
At this very time 8 years ago, it was Bush 48, Kerry 48 among LVs in the natl NBC/WSJ poll. Buckle your seatbelts, folks"

[helpisontheway]

21. What was RV in that poll? Nt

[writes3000]

31. Bush was ahead +2 in RV in that poll.

[ProSense]

43. LOL!

That's almost the same as being ahead by 5 points.

Thanks for the info.

[ProSense]

44. That was a good question, and

after seeing the RV margin, wonder why NBC decided to make the comparison.

[Impious]

25. Saddens me how stupid half of Americans can be

Don't know what else to say.

[LenaBaby61]

32. SADLY, maybe a quarter of more of thos 50% of voters are racist....

and would gladly live under a bridge and lose all their worldly possessions IF it meant getting that "Ni@@er" out of THEIR White House. The other remaining electorate are just dumb and stupid and lazy and won't vote, and complain the LOUDEST when their ox is being gored.

It's basically that simple.

Well, that's how I think...lol...

[Jennicut]

26. Wowzers. I think this is exactly where the race is. Not sure why people are freaking out.

All the tracking polls point to a tie (except Gallup, which has some real issues). This comes down to turnout in the swing states. I am happy Romney is not ahead, as Gallup's poll has shown. Maybe I just follow every single poll out there so this does not surprise me one bit. Like I said, if Romney was ahead, that would suck.

[MjolnirTime]

27. Hello,troll.

[pfeiffer]

33. From Princeton Election Consortium, 10/21/2012 at 8:00 a.m.

"But here is something interesting. National polls do not match the state polls – and it is state races that determine the outcome, via the Electoral College. In the Meta-Analysis that Andrew Ferguson and I report on this website, Obama has been ahead all along."

[progressivebydesign]

39. This!! Yes. Finally someone gets it. The State polls are the only thing that matters now.

And the National polls are so freakin' skewed republican, it's not funny. Also, they do so many contortions with the "likely voter" that removes the majority of "likely OBAMA voters," that it reads republican every time.

This happened last time with McCain.. the 'national polls" were "tightening" according to the memes. And I remember being here on DU and we're all posting "how the fuck is McCain ahead right now???"

[Dawson Leery]

35. Obama has a large lead in early Iowa voting.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251160298

[progressivebydesign]

38. Who cares?? A national poll doesn't mean jack shit. And is oversampling "likely voters"

which are traditionally white, affluent, mid-50s, female.