Great post by Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium:

[RedSpartan]

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/21/anatomy-of-a-bounce/#more-7753

Here are the key points:

"The general pattern is clear: viewed through polls that focus directly on electoral mechanisms, Obama performs 1-2 points better than in national polls."

and

"I will be interested to see if on Election Day, the national vote and the electoral vote count still show this discrepancy. If both are accurate, President Obama’s re-elect probability is about 90% – but his probability of winning the popular vote is lower, about 70%."

[hvn_nbr_2]

1. What does "focus directly on electoral mechanisms" mean?

I have no idea what that phrase could mean and I couldn't find anything in the article that gives any clue.

[LisaL]

2. I am pretty sure he is talking about state polls.

Since that's how the votes are distributed. One can lose popular vote but win election easily.

[RedSpartan]

4. Yes, he is talking about state polls; i.e. the Electoral College.

[Blaukraut]

3. Everyone should listen to Sam Wang: DO Not Pay Attention To Individual Polls!!

He's right. If you watch the poll aggregates he has, you will see Obama consistently ahead, with the race tightening naturally toward the election.