Electoral Tie? Popular Vote Loss by Electoral Winner? -- Nate Silver's Scenario Analysis

[JaneQPublic]

Political Talking Heads this weekend reached the point of discussing such campaign oddities as the presidential election ending as an electoral tie (each receiving 269 electoral votes) or the popular vote winner losing to the electoral vote winner.

To show just how unlikely these possibilities actually are, here is Nate Silver's analysis of these scenarios, as well as several others being mulled over by political junkies:

Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.4%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 10.1%
Obama wins popular vote 63.8%
Romney wins popular vote 36.2%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.7%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 5.8%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.7%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.2%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.5%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 4.6%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/20/oct-20-calm-day-in-forecast-but-volatility-ahead/

[LisaL]

1. Just because something isn't like doesn't mean it can't happen.

After all, a bunch of people do get struck by lightening every year.
And 0.4% odds are better than being struck by lightening.

[PoliticAverse]

2. The odds of a bunch of people getting struck by lightning every year is close to 100%. n/t

[davidpdx]

3. The chances of me getting struck by lightening with my pants down are higher than 0.4%

Oophs did I say that out loud.