2016 Postmortem

budkin

(6,721 posts) Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:37 PM Oct 2012

Believe it or not, this National Review article on Romney's chances will make you feel good

Yes, the conservative National Review. It says that electorally, it's going to be very hard for him to win.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/330937/old-college-try-daniel-foster?pg=1

8 replies

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Believe it or not, this National Review article on Romney's chances will make you feel good (Original Post) budkin Oct 2012 OP

Well the one thing that we should shout until we are hoarse grantcart Oct 2012 #1

What percentage of the vote is going to third party canidates? Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #4

significant in Nevada, less so in VA, unlikely to get a whole percent this time around grantcart Oct 2012 #5

I don't know Cosmocat Oct 2012 #6

Grantcart does not agree with you. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #7

Yeah Cosmocat Oct 2012 #8

Nice to see the other side ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #2

The guy who was off by just one electoral vote in 2008 (Sam Wang) says 9:1 odds for Obama. pointsoflight Oct 2012 #3

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

1. Well the one thing that we should shout until we are hoarse

Reply to budkin (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:45 PM

Oct 2012

That in the case Romney were to win a popular vote is that the only reason that happened is because tens of millions knew that their vote was meaningless because they were from states that they knew Obama won while millions of racists from Red States were motivated by hatred so that they turned out regardless.

Live by the Electoral College, Die by the Electoral College.

If they want to get rid of it we will happily agree.

(but I think it will be 54-46 Obama popular).

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)

4. What percentage of the vote is going to third party canidates?

Reply to grantcart (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:02 PM

Oct 2012

You think 54-46 will be the final margin. What about third party candidates? There has to be at least 1 point going to them.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

5. significant in Nevada, less so in VA, unlikely to get a whole percent this time around

Reply to Dawson Leery (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 21, 2012, 04:43 AM

Oct 2012

very few people even know who they are.

More to the point when you have such an emotionally polarized election as this one is very few people want to make a symbolic statement, they care about winning.

Cosmocat

(14,575 posts)

6. I don't know

Reply to grantcart (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 21, 2012, 08:29 AM

Oct 2012

Unless the trends work unabatedaly in BO's favor for the next two weeks, it won't be anywhere near an 8 point split.

As Dawson noted, there is going to be a good third party bite, but I suspect we are looking at a 52, maybe high 51% vote for BO and somewhere in the low 47%/high 46% vote for Romney.