I don't understand why people (whether media or even here) think a brokered convention will

[themaguffin]

A) really happen in an era where the convention is not NOTHING more than a media event and coordinated promotion of the nominee and ultimately a campaign event.

B) would involve someone who hasn't been running - in other words someone without any delegates

Neither of those will happen. Even with GOP dissatisfaction at their poor options, a brokered convention would be incredibly risky and likely to make things worse... all in an uncontrolled and unpredictable environment.

I just don't see the establishment doing that.

[unblock]

1. you'll never make it in television with THAT sense of drama!

[themaguffin]

2. what does that mean?

[unblock]

5. they're talking about a brokered convention because it gets people to watch

not because it's actually going to happen.

[zipplewrath]

3. The likelyhood is low

A contested (not brokered) convention is about the only possibility, and it would require that no one show up with a majority of delegates. The system is designed to avoid that, all though it is still possible. But if that happens, then the vote swaping has to start. Mind you, it will start well before the convention, with attempting to form alliances with the smallest fish to reach the majority level. By the time you actually get TO the convention, it will probably be a done deal. About the ONLY way to have it actually go to the convention, is for at least two candidates to "split" the vote to where neither is close enough to actually pull it off. Suppose they split 40/40 with Paul having 15 and the other 5 in the remaining fools hands. The remaining fools can't "solve" the problem and Paul may want to ride it to the convention.

But I don't see any of that happening. Romney will probably pull it off ultimately, and then they'll all start to fall in line.

[On the Road]

4. I Agree the Probability is Low

About the only way it would realistically happen is if Ron Paul has a sizable number of stealth delegates and prevent Santorum or Romney from getting a majority. In that case, it might take candidate mutually acceptable to two of the three candidates. They represent such different elements of the GOP that it's hard to see who that could be.

[HopeHoops]

6. Since when do Republicans do things that make sense?