Sanders could win the majority of pledged delegates with just a 50%-50% split in every state

[mhatrw]

remaining other than California, and a 73.8% to 36.2% victory in California.

No wonder the Hillarians have been calling so loudly for him to drop out. They know Clinton's closed primary, Bible Belt forged delegate lead is as tenuous as a halftime lead on the road against the Golden State Warriors.

[Bleacher Creature]

1. "and a 74.1% to 35.9% victory in California."

And I could be a starting pitcher in the major leagues. . .

. . . if I suddenly developed a 95 mph fastball.

[thereismore]

3. You are very unlikely to do that sitting around

your keyboard posting crap analogies. In your analogy, Bernie already has a 99 mph fastball.

[dchill]

9. +1 *snort*

[PatrickforO]

27. He does. It's called 'speaking truth to power.'

And it has caused Americans throughout the nation to become aware of some things the establishment wants to keep buried.

[awake]

2. 74.1% + 35.9 %. = 110%

Your math does add up

[mhatrw]

5. Typo. Now corrected.

All Sanders needs is to split vote in all the other states and dominate in OR and CA as he just did in WA and HI.

[awake]

8. Thanks for the fix

[AgerolanAmerican]

21. If they do count 110% of the vote

I can only imagine that that extra 10% would be overwhelmingly for Clinton

[CorporatistNation]

22. Nice Job!

K and R

[PatrickforO]

31. There was another post on here, actually in the Hillary Room, where alas, I've been banned...

And it said that Bernie couldn't win unless he gets these kinds of margins in EVERY subsequent primary and caucus.

I'M NEW TO THE DELEGATE MATH, SO HELP ME OUT HERE. IT SEEMS TO ME:

Clinton's delegate lead (268) just isn't that large. It is substantial, but not insurmountable. According to Google's count, https://www.google.com/#q=democratic+primary+election+results&eob=m.09c7w0/D/3/short/m.09c7w0/, the pledged delegate count is Clinton = 1,243 and Sanders = 975.

So as mentioned above, Clinton has a lead of 268 delegates. And, since a candidate needs 2,383 delegates to win the nomination, excluding super delegates, Clinton has about 52% of the delegates she needs, while Sanders has 41%.

(Since the 714 'super delegates' will likely vote the way the wind is blowing as they did in 08 when Clinton's commanding super delegate lead evaporated because it had become clear the majority of Dems wanted Obama, I'm am excluding them for now.)

OK now, out of 4,051 total pledged delegates, 2,218 are taken (1,243 + 975 = 2,218). This means there are still 1,833 unclaimed pledged delegates left.

So...to win with 2,383 delegates, if he can't turn around ANY of the super delegates, Sanders needs to win about 76.8% (1,408) of those pledged delegates in order to win, again WITHOUT the super delegates. However, if he keeps winning states and winning big in some, Clinton's commanding super delegate lead may shrink by say, half?

Since there are 714 super delegates, if we take 350 of those off the table for her, and give them to Bernie, then he hypothetically only needs to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates, a much more 'do-able' prospect, and one which the Clinton campaign is no doubt aware of, and concerned about.

Because I'll tell you what...if it looks that close, I'm gonna be sure as heck calling up the super delegates in my state and pressuring them on behalf of Bernie.

My conclusion: Bernie can still win the nomination if we all work hard for him.

OK, SO THOSE OF YOU MORE EXPERIENCED AT COUNTING THESE DELEGATES, HOW DID I DO? AM I RIGHT?

[mhatrw]

32. This is a very helpful site.

http://demrace.com

[Gwhittey]

6. Math adds up if you know what numbers are

"74.1% to 25.9%" Not sure where you got 35.9 from

[awake]

10. That was the numbers in the OP before it was fixed

[TDale313]

4. I'm a Sanders supporter in California.

He's not gonna win by that kind of margin (not even a 65/35) I am hopeful he'll win, but it will be far closer than that. Hillary won here in '08. It's a highly diverse and populated state and really expensive to run in.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

23. but them kids on the internet are making it practically free, comparatively anyway.

And remember, young and first time voters are almost never polled.

Momentum is real

[TDale313]

25. Momentum is real

And I believe he can win here, but I don't see it being a landslide. Hope I'm wrong 🙂

[upaloopa]

28. U of CA Final exams are the week of the 4th to the 10th.

Maybe the students will not make it to vote.

[highprincipleswork]

30. Perhaps we need to get them to vote in advance.

[Peace Patriot]

7. When you consider the odds against Stephen Curry doing what he's doing...

...you gotta like Bernie Sanders' odds, too. Sanders has thus far baffled not only the heavily, heavily moneyed Clinton campaign but the entire heavily moneyed Democratic Party establishment, the entire Corrupt Media establishment and all the dirty rotten games they are playing!

I won't rule out a 74.1% victory in California (native Californian here) but I don't think it's going to fall out that way. I think it's going to be a lot tighter overall from hereon in, and Sanders could end up tying or almost tying Clinton and then a great big fight at the convention at which Bernie's huge lead over Trump in national polls (much higher than Clinton's) and Clinton's very high negativity numbers will become very important to the superdelegates.

[MadBadger]

11. Do you honestly think that's going to happen?

Any of it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. Well I will put it to you this way

he over performed yesterday

The map is a really though one, but he keeps over performing, the map will continue to change

Personally I do not expect CA to count whatsoever, we rarely do... but that is another story. I am not going to the polls for the primary. It is alway an afterthought. I am going there for minimum wage.

And anyway, I consider US Elections compromised anyway... so I vote to remain in practice.

But yesterday, he did better than expected. So if he continues to do that... the map starts to open. I know partisans do not want to hear this. Sorry.

[MadBadger]

16. He absolutely overperformed.

But that calendar is really tough once NY starts. I just dont see him winning any of those closed primaries and I think she could run the numbers up in a few of them.

I think he can definitely win California, I just don't see him doing so in the numbers he would need

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. A few analysist do

As I said, I do not expect CA to count... but if we do... I prefer my crow fricassed

But he did much better than expected and these were not white states either. The fact that one of the most diverse states in the US (Hawaii) is dismissed is no longer shocking, but highly disturbing to me.

Also he did well with the Inuit, and Alaskans in general because they are living the effects of climate change already. And anecdotally, he might do far better in California than people expect. I have seen polling that it indicates it is closing... just not in the US... which is odd.

[bettyellen]

33. What Cali polls are from outside the US? Links?

[mhatrw]

15. Did you honestly think Sanders would win 76% of the total delegates in ID, UT, AK, WA & HI?

[MadBadger]

20. Considering what he did in Kansas, Maine? I'm only marginally surprised.

I knew he would crush her, just wasnt sure by how much. I would have thought he doubled up at 66-33 or so.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. There hasn't been a contested Democratic presidential primary in CA

There hasn't been a contested Democratic presidential primary in CA decided by double digits in recent history. Jerry Brown beat Carter by 40 points in 1976 but he was the sitting governor.

Actually, there have only been four contested elections in recent history :Kennedy-Carter , Mondale-Hart, Clinton-Brown, and Clinton -Obama,and they were all relatively close with Kennedy, Hart, Clinton, and Clinton emerging victorious.

[Springslips]

34. You mean President Obama correct?

You wrote that Clinton emerged victorious in 08, or am I reading that wrong.

Just pointing it out for clarity.

[JI7]

35. he is referring to the primary in california

Which Clinton won in 2008

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Hillary Clinton won the 08 CA primary.

I was only discussing contested CA primaries, not primaries where the race had essentially been decided.

80 Kennedy> Carter
84 Hart> Mondale
92 Clinton> Brown
08 Clinton> Obama

all by a margin less than double digits.

[DCBob]

12. Never happen.

PA,NY,MD,NJ are all closed primaries and Hillary is polling strong in all those states.

Also, CA has huge Latino voter block which in other states with similar demographics have gone to Hillary like TX,NV and AZ.

[mhatrw]

19. We can make it happen. We have to make it happen. And it is eminently doable.

You can naysay all you want, but the MATH says all Sanders needs to do is dominate OR and CA as he just dominated WA and HI, and then spilt all the remaining states and territories.

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. You do realize that minorities are NOT lego blocks right?

oh never mind... we are.

[edgineered]

13. While what you say is true, despite the typo,

there are 21 other races which includes some dangerous territory. Between now and April 19th there are only 100 delegates up grabs, then we're into some Clinton strongholds. Each of those will be difficult to make up, here's why. In NY each 1% change in the vote means a change of 2.47 delegates up and down, basically 5 delegates. In a state like KY where the same 1% change moves the count 0.55 delegates, it would take about a 10% win to make up for the 1% in NY.

There is one hell of a difference between 1% in NY, CA, PA, NJ than there is in places like ND, SD, MT, and DE. Counting states is a feel-good illusion, motivating voters is the reality.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

17. Where is George? I don't believe any math here unless he double checks it. Too many right-brainers

here - me included!

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

29. After this weekend, he will need about 54% of the remaining pledged delegates to win

That's down from ~58% before the weekend. Not too shabby.

He will definitely need some big wins, especially if Hillary does well in NY and NJ. But the outlook is much better now.

[Eric J in MN]

37. NY state will be the big contest before California.

Bernie Sanders has a big challenge in NY where Hillary Clinton was a US Senator and has her campaign headquarters.