Politico: "Without a big win in Washington Saturday, there’s no path forward for Bernie Sanders"

[DCBob]

SEATTLE — Without a big win in Washington Saturday, there’s no path forward for Bernie Sanders. And that cold political reality has turned this state into an unlikely battleground between the Vermont senator and Hillary Clinton.

Sanders recognizes Washington is as close to a must-win as it gets after his disappointing loss in Arizona on Tuesday. With 101 delegates at stake, only New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California have more delegates at play after this weekend. If he has any hope of catching Clinton, he’ll have to start here, in a state where progressive-oriented Seattle sets the tone.

“If Senator Sanders is ever going to do well, I think it would be in Washington,” explained Gov. Jay Inslee, a Clinton supporter, acknowledging Sanders’ appeal in his state. “That’s no surprise."

Clinton doesn’t have as much urgency to win. She simply needs to keep it close, to deny Sanders the kind of runaway caucus victory that could dent her 300-plus delegate lead and provide him some desperately-needed momentum going into the April 5 primary in Wisconsin, another state that figures to be receptive to his brand of progressive politics. (Alaska and Hawaii, much smaller delegate contests, also hold caucuses on Saturday.)

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-goes-all-out-for-west-coast-must-win-221228

I think the only way Bernie changes the dynamics will be to take all 101 delegates by taking more than 85% which would give him all the delegates since there is the 15% threshold rule. Few will notice if the results are anything short of that. Lets say even if he wins big 80-20.. he only nets 60 delegates which takes Hillary's lead from 300 to 240. That helps narrow the gap a bit but it means nothing towards changing the outcome. He needs a huge dramatic win otherwise its just another day closer to Madam Nominee!

[Agschmid]

1. An 80% win by either would be unprecedented in that state based on polling.

[DCBob]

3. Right.. so it would take some sort minor miracle for Bernie win big enough to make any difference.

It does appear rather hopeless.

[NWCorona]

5. Hopeless? No.

Definitely uphill

I do love an underdog tho

[DCBob]

7. I like underdogs too. but this dog is really under!

[NWCorona]

8. Funny! I love Danes

Yes the odds are against him but this Saturday I get to caucus for him!

[DCBob]

9. Great. Should be a huge turnout.

Keep us posted on your experiences.

[NWCorona]

10. Thanks!

And I will

[WhiteTara]

2. And if he doesn't win by that margin

how many will blame DWS for scheduling primary on Easter weekend?

[DCBob]

4. There's always an excuse when Bernie fails.

[Sheepshank]

14. It'll be Hillary's fault for not rescheduling Easter nt

[WhiteTara]

16. She is all powerful and 3 Mile Island

was also her fault. Probably Hiroshima and the exit of the Garden of Eden.

[MoonRiver]

23. And don't forget wwI!

Of course she wasn't born then, but she's responsible none the less!

[WhiteTara]

25. I'm sure if we tried, we would fine even more

things that all powerful Hillary has done to ruin the world. Nothing is beyond her capabilities.

[KingFlorez]

6. He needs to keep her below the threshold to make a real dent

That probably won't happen, but that is what he needs.

[DCBob]

11. Agreed.. I just dont see that happening at all.

I am sure he will win but probably something like 65-35.. which will net 30 delegates and a footnote in the news.

[Garrett78]

12. It's not enough to cut the deficit to 200 by mid-April.

Because then he runs into a Big (Apple) problem. Not to mention Maryland and Pennsylvania. At the end of April, Sanders is likely looking at a deficit of ~400 pledged delegates.

[DCBob]

13. End of April looks very strong for Hillary.

I will be voting April 26 in Maryland "closed" (Democratic) primary. This is Hillary territory!

[Garrett78]

20. It does.

So, cutting Clinton's lead down to 250 or even 200 heading into the 2nd half of April won't be sufficient. Now, it would change the narrative some, which could have a bit of an impact (one way or another) on NY, PA, MD, etc. But it won't amount to much.

If Clinton's lead is ~400 at the end of April, I think Sanders needs to consider the potential repercussions of continuing. I know this isn't Gore vs. Bradley, but it might as well be if Clinton's lead is that big at the end of next month.

[Aerows]

39. I hate to say it

but it would be nothing short of a political miracle for Sanders to even get close to Clinton in New York.

I hate it, but that doesn't make it any less true.

[PyaarRevolution]

15. You forget.

Seattle, Washington's biggest city I believe, elected an OPENLY avowed Socialist, Kshama Sawant. I'm sure she's out there stumping for Bernie. If she wasn't I'd be surprised.
Kshama will help Bernie tremendously. It also helps that whole area is very connected electronically so I think most of urban Washington knows about Bernie.
The issue is how the whole thing is constructed. First they have a Caucus then they have a primary which is what counts. Is this Washington meeting on Saturday the caucus or primary?

[DCBob]

17. This is the caucus.. not sure about the primary??

I was not aware of that.

[PyaarRevolution]

22. Yeah it's totally bizarre.

I get the impression it doesn't matter if Bernie's numbers are huge because it's the Primary it counts. If Hillary gets the Caucus I received the impression you can just write in Bernie's name on the primary card.
Granted I want Bernie to get the majority as his name would appear on the primary cards then over Hillary's so more people would be aware. It would also see the DNC's dirty tactics backfire on them; however, if you're a Hillary fan you can write in her name on the primary card/ballot to vote for her.

[DCBob]

40. I Google this issue and still confused.

Not really sure how they are going to count the delegates. Its is weird.

[NorthCarolina]

18. I'm sure the election shenanigans are about to hit new heights then.

eom

[GoneFishin]

28. Yep. Like clockwork. Stay tuned.

[Codeine]

19. I suspect Bernie will crush her in WA.

But Clinton is still going to win in the end.

[DanTex]

21. And even with a big win, there is still no path forward for him...

[Marr]

24. lol, gotta manage those expectations, huh? /nt

[DCBob]

26. How would a comment on a discussion board "manage expectations"??

Odd how some of you here think this site has some strategic campaign significance.

[Marr]

31. Politico, not you. /nt

[DCBob]

33. So Politico is on the Hillary campaign now??

Along with CNN, MSNBC, etc etc etc. Its amazing how powerful this woman is! For sure we should nominate her!

[Marr]

34. Politico has consistently framed things a pro-Hillary way, yes.

Anything else I can help you with?

[DCBob]

35. Why would they do that??

I dont get it.

[Marr]

36. Don't get it then.

[GoneFishin]

27. Then I guess we can expect another polling location and screwed up voter registration debacle there

next.

[LisaM]

29. He's going after turnout in a big way.

Despite having a rally at Key Arena a little over a week ago, he's holding another at Safeco Field (during rush hour, yay) tonight. This is clearly nothing more than a GOTV effort. A friend of mine spoke to a Sanders supporter last night at the Bruce Springsteen concert and when she questioned the timing of the rally, told her "we want to set a record for the biggest rally!"

It's a big question mark what's going to happen. Hillary has done smaller, targeted appearances. He pulls in the big crowds, but for at least three of the rallies, I suspect there's some duplication in attendance (Vancouver, WA and the two rallies in Seattle held a little over a week and just a few miles apart). Now, the remark the guy made about setting a record for the biggest rally - are people who show up for some Guinness Book of Records thing all likely to vote? We shall see.

As an aside, I heard of a caucus site tomorrow where the community center has both the caucus and an Easter Egg hunt scheduled for the same time!

[Iliyah]

30. Politico (GOP outlet) like other corporate media outlets be it internet or not

really do not want a race between HRC and the GOP's candidate. Gutting VRA, section 5 is not enough to deter many POC's votes. Corporate media owned and run by their masters want a one party system and that is fact. That's why open primaries and caucuses are a blessing to them. Many of them cross-over to try and stop HRC and I'm a strong believer in that, so therefore, please do not try and convince me otherwise.

Anywho, Hillary's got this.

[lumberjack_jeff]

32. Don't worry, we'll deliver. n/t

[Number23]

37. "he only nets 60 delegates which takes Hillary's lead from 300 to 240."

I don't think that's quite right, is it? If he gets 60 that means she'd get 40.

She's already leading by over 300 delegates. That means her lead would go down to 280, not 240.

[DCBob]

38. I was referring to net delegates.

If Bernie gets 80% and Hilary 20% then then the approx delegate take would be 80-20... a 60 net gain for Bernie. Unlikely but even so he's still way way behind.