2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThis is really going to happen! It will be Kasich vs Clinton, because he's clobbering her!
Of course the Rs will choose Kasich at the "open" (notice, it's not going to be "brokered" convention.
akbacchus_BC
(5,704 posts)WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)specifically to circumvent tradition and run the ONLY electable R, an establishment guy, past the only poor Dem matchup, that being Kasich vs Clinton.
Why should we expect the Rs to act in any other way. They've telegraphed what they're doing with their language.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Last edited Fri Mar 25, 2016, 09:37 AM - Edit history (1)
flagrantly flouting the will of the plurality of Repub voters, there will be hell to pay.
The Donald will go rogue and take 30% of the electorate with him in a 3rd party run.
Outcome? DEMS WIN--no matter who their candidate is.
akbacchus_BC
(5,704 posts)good that President Obama has done!
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)So jettison Trump, and if he runs as a Third Party candidate against Kasich and Clinton, nothing lost. I believe the Rs like Trump more than Clinton, so from their point of view, it's win-win with Trump or Kasich, and losing to Clinton is a wash because it was a foregone conclusion vs Trump.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)At least he has said he would run.
NowSam
(1,252 posts)President Ventura.
lapfog_1
(29,205 posts)and we know Trump doesn't really want to be President, he wants a deal.
akbacchus_BC
(5,704 posts)that trump can win if either Mr. Sanders or Mrs. Clinton is the Dem nominee. I am not sure if you all dislike trump like we do in Canada, pity we cannot vote. Trump is a vile person and I know he has his followers and they too are vile. Shows a segment of the US who are racist and bigoted.
I am just scared that if Trump is the nominee on the Republican side and Mrs. Clinton is the nominee on the Democratic side, that a lot of people will turn out to vote against her. A lot of people do not trust Mrs. Clinton and a lot of people do not like a dynasty. Let's keep our fingers and toes cross that a Democrat gets elected.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)They hate her more than Trump. Obama better use "consent" to get his milk toast Justice. Mitch is playing with an inside straight.
akbacchus_BC
(5,704 posts)She is so full of her self to run for the President of America is mind effing boggling. Guess she relies on the pumas to back her up! Plus she feels she is entitled. Which US citizens want a has been to walk the halls of the White House again?
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Should you say she's "uppity"?
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)The little woman does not know her place.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Funny how the left and right sound the same since Bernie got in the race.
Karma13612
(4,552 posts)Hillary is not leading against Trump to the same degree.
Many do fear a Trump win if Hill is our nominee, including me.
akbacchus_BC
(5,704 posts)I still prefer her than trump! However, if Bernie manages to get the nod, he will be the next President of the US. Keeping fingers and toes crossed. I love Bernie and his progressive ideas.
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)and if you narrow the sample size down to white married women the margin is even greater. My concern is that there is not a great deal of enthusiasm behind HRC (there is ample video evidence of this from her campaign appearances), and if young voters and POC do not turn out for HRC like they have for President Obama or Bernie, this election could swing towards Trump.
Conventional wisdom says that people are more likely to turn out to vote FOR someone than against someone. The whackadoos on the Trump bandwagon are going to turn out, of that I'm pretty sure. And there are a lot of them, like it or not. Then you have to wonder if the 50-60% of non-Trump GOP voters will turn out to support him or (less likely) hold their nose and vote Trump to keep HRC out of the White House.
HRC just doesn't have the skills of Bill (who is looking pretty haggard out on the stump), and whether the HRC people wish to acknowledge it or not, she's just not that like able. Her negatives - especially on the issue of trustworthiness - are far higher than Bernie's or any other national Democratic figure. Don't get me wrong - if I had to bet money, I'd put it on HRC over Trump, but I would be extremely nervous. The overconfidence of the HRC supporters is misplaced and ignores the very real baggage she has, and the choices she has made that have distanced her from the base (which ain't exactly in love with the Goldman Sachs wing of the DNC).
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)and I mean EXACTLY.
Hillary's chances against Trump are not as high as people think is my gut feeling. But what the other groups will do is unpredictable at present.
I wouldn't know whether to make bets on this horse race or not. So many variables in play. Whoever is in the finals, it will be perilously close.
brooklynite
(94,602 posts)He has ONE State...you need a minimum of 8.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)I know they want to stop El Cabello Grande, but have the actually announced something?
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Daren Samuelson Politico
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)I've thought it would be Kasich since the primaries started.
Cruz will implode today due to a sex scandal. Interesting timing to all of this.
Except I think Clinton has her own scandal coming any time now. There are not only the emails, there are the money transactions through the foundation, PLUS we don't know what Trump may have on her too. I'd bet a lot he's got something campaign-ending.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)akbacchus_BC
(5,704 posts)WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)akbacchus_BC
(5,704 posts)cast a blind eye. Mind you, they are so evangelical and christian, but so forgiving when one of their own step out of line. Talk about double standards!
bulloney
(4,113 posts)Something's gotta be brewing to keep Kasich running and the enabling media playing along.
FarPoint
(12,409 posts)All along Kasich has been relaxed, confident without reason...reminds me of * Bush....plus....the GOP Convention is in Cleveland... Maybe not a coincidence. Something feels like a bait and switch somehow. Just a feeling I've had....Kasich is my governor and a snake he can be.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)They aren't tipping their hand. It's high stakes poker vs 3-D chess.
FarPoint
(12,409 posts)I just have yet to piece it all together.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Then Sanders can resign after a year and she can get her own person.
FarPoint
(12,409 posts)He can energize our Progressive Democrats by building up activism with organizations such as Progressive Democrats of American... Change Congress, then change laws.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)FarPoint
(12,409 posts)He has done well with looking at where the Democratic Party can go if United.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Chan790
(20,176 posts)He certainly has the capacity to get something out of her...but I don't see why he wants that when he could ask for nearly anything else and get it:
* To pick the T. Sec.
* Promises that DWS won't be part of the administration.
* Gabbard for DNC chair.
* Platform concessions
* Hillary to embrace Medicare-for-all or single-payer or his college tuition proposal or the transaction tax.
* All of the above.
Hell, knowing it's the short-line to be the next nominee...he could demand to name her VP.
But...I don't see him wanting the job himself.
Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)three weeks after the caucus. They just began during the morning news.
He only got 5.8% of the vote
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)Twin Cities area
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)into the convention with the most delegates,there's going to be a bloodbath. But you keep wishful thinking.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Iris
(15,660 posts)voted before, vote for a candidate selected at the convention?
PJMcK
(22,037 posts)You make a cogent point, WhaTHellisgoingonhere and I agree about your use of words to describe the upcoming Republican convention.
Here are two contrary points of views from conservative writers:
1. Rich Lowry: http://nypost.com/2016/03/24/john-kasichs-amazing-fantasy-presidential-campaign/
2. John Podhoretz: http://nypost.com/2016/03/23/wake-up-cruz-and-kasich-the-gop-convention-will-never-nominate-you/
In any event, I'm enjoying the chaos of the Republican campaigns.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)It won't be Trump
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The man loves to fight and has the ego the size of a small country. He would run 3rd party and siphon off at least 25% of the Republican vote.
Oh, all his fire would be directed at the party that stole the nomination from him.
Hillary-45%
Kashich-30%
Trump- 25%
Arkana
(24,347 posts)Even if it's like 15%, it will doom any GOP candidate in the electoral college.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)His whole platform will be the GOP are bought and paid for crooks. He won't even bother Hillary.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)There's a good chance there is no electoral majority and the House hands the election to Kasich
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Red states would split, but Hillary would walk with plenty of electoral votes.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Trump won't win one state outright...What he will do is swing many stares to the Democrats. In a three way race, FL, VA, and NC are gone for the Republicans...
No Electoral College...
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)I honestly posted it because I think people forget that niche in the electoral process sometimes. No question a Trump 3rd party run would hurt the Republicans.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)If Trump wins outright, or survives the convention shenanigans, many persons of color will be mobilized against him. He has demonized Muslims, Latinos, and pretty much all the rest at one point or another. They way he has treated Megyn Kelly and even Carly Fiorina will some conservative women against him not to mention many the moderate to liberal ones.
If Trump is not the nominee, it will only come to be via convention shenanigans. If that happens, Trump will wage a bitter holy war against the GOP, while we sit back and toast the marshmallows over their political corpses.
FSogol
(45,491 posts)RiverLover
(7,830 posts)Shades of grey.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)If Trump does not get the nomination now, he WILL run third-party--or at least make life miserable enough for the anointed nominee that there's no way they win.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)What do you think a man of Trump's inestimable ego is going to do if he feels he was screwed?
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)that question.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Kind of spoils it for Kasich with Trump running around the country telling his supporters that the Republicans stole the election from him and them and now me and you must punish them.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)As evidence I point to the man they support.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Giving it to him will alienate a sufficient number of far right Republicans that vomit at the thought of Kasich.
I will say that Kasich has a slightly higher chance of being a selected nominee than Romney.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)including the loss of the Senate and big losses, though not the complete loss, of the House and State races.
I don't think they expect to win the White House.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)????
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)that will translate to the Senate, House, and State Offices.
If he wins, he is likely to be a transformative figure in the way that Reagan changed the Republican Party. He is not considered a conservative and is not beholden to the party elite as is most other candidates.
It is telling that Cruz, the most hated Republican in the Senate by other Republicans, is considered a safer bet.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)So you think they've given up on SCOTUS?
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)The rest is cake.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)at around 1:54:00 he starts talking about, in no uncertain terms, the GOP convention will be contested (his word) for the first time in forever. This conversation took place about an hour ago, maybe less.
Gothmog
(145,335 posts)Sanders is doing well in match up polls because he has not been vetted https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Watching Sanders at Monday nights Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump or another Republican nominee would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.
The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the socialist label and requested that Sanders define it so that it doesnt concern the rest of us citizens.
Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who dont want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top thats my definition of democratic socialism.
But thats not how Republicans will define socialism and theyll have the dictionary on their side. Theyll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. Theyll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldnt be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists dont win national elections in the United States .
Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases one of the biggest tax hikes in history, as moderator Chris Cuomo put it to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that hypothetically, youre going to pay $5,000 more in taxes, and declared, W e will raise taxes, yes we will. He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that its demagogic to say, oh, youre paying more in taxes.
Well, yes and Trump is a demagogue.
Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government bigger than ever, Sanders didnt quarrel, saying, P eople want to criticize me, okay, and F ine, if thats the criticism, I accept it.
Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.
Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads. Kaisch is also benefiting from the same lack of vetting. If Kasich became the nominee, his horrible record on women's rights and Planned Parenthood would be great grounds for attack
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)Repubs are stupid, but they are looking at matchups and the swing states. They know Kasich taking OH would be huge in the election.
http://news.yahoo.com/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html
The three biggest Swing States in the above article are Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Kasich took 956,762 popular votes in a multi candidate field in OH. Clinton had 679,266 votes or almost 300K less. Kasich is formidable in OH.
Kasich didn't fare as well in Florida where Trump and HRC won handily, and HRC beat Trump by 20K votes there. If Trump is not in will GOP loyalists in Florida vote for Kasich. Over a half million voters in Florida voted GOP in the primary overall to Dems so if the party can get out the Trump vote for Kasich there it could be interesting.
PA hasn't voted yet.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Head to heads, at this stage are very unreliable ... especially, in this case. The projected numbers for, both, Kasich AND Bernie are way higher than they would be in the General Election, because: 1) Kasich has not been the focus of any intra-partisan attacks ... that has been reserved for the gop front-runner. Trump hasn't even mentioned Kasich (to my knowledge); and, 2) neither Kasich or Sanders have been the focus of (significant) inter-partisan attacks ... those attacks have been focused on HRC and trump. This lack of focused attacks buoys, both, Bernie and Kasich's numbers.
But that said, Kasich is unlikely to "clobber" either Sanders or HRC. Most prominent in my reasoning is that however Kasich gets the nomination, either through an "open" (aka, Brokered) convention or "contested" (aka, a floor fought) convention, trump's camp is full of "true believers" who make the "Bernie or Bust" crowd look like indecisive squishies.
If trump gets the number going into their convention and he walks out without the nomination; there will be full out rebellion among his supporters (not to mention, "principled" party folks), who will refuse to support the gop nominee, whoever that might be, or whoever the Democrats put up. And, given trump's ego, should he get the number and not get the nomination, I fully expect him to mount a 3rd-Party challenge. This would ensure a Democratic win, no matter who we put up.
Now, if trump gets close to the number going into their convention and he walks out without the nomination, his supporters will cry "MOMENTUM!!!" and whine about how trump was cheated by the establishment and, likely, refuse to support the gop nominee, whoever that might be, or whoever the Democrats put up. And, again, given trump's ego, I expect him to mount a 3rd-Party challenge ... unless the gop offers him a great deal.
If trump goes into their convention, short of the number and he walks out without the nomination, his supporters will, again, cry "MOMENTUM!!!" and whine about how trump was cheated by the establishment and, likely, refuse to support the gop nominee, whoever that might be, unless trump makes a big show of passing the torch to the gop nominee. Given, for a third time, trump's ego, he is unlikely to endorse the gop nominee ... unless the gop offers him a great deal.
I can't believe I'm writing this; but, a trump nomination is the only chance for the gop to turn out any numbers in 2016 ... but that said, a trump nomination will result in a Democratic win.
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)that a Trump candidacy assures the White House to the Democratic Party, regardless of who the candidate is.
There is more to what you are saying, though, I wonder who is noticing it...
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)You noticed!
But I fear I'm on too many ignore lists for what I was getting at to sink in.
revbones
(3,660 posts)pick Sanders who beats Kasich...
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Head to heads, at this stage, are very unreliable ... especially, in this case.
The projected numbers for, both, Kasich AND Bernie are way higher than they would be in the General Election, because: 1) Kasich has not been the focus of any intra-partisan attacks ... that has been reserved for the gop front-runner. Trump hasn't even mentioned Kasich (to my knowledge); and, 2) neither Kasich or Sanders have been the focus of (significant) inter-partisan attacks ... those attacks have been focused on HRC and trump. This lack of focused attacks buoys, both, Bernie and Kasich's numbers.
But that said, Kasich is unlikely to "clobber" either Sanders or HRC. Most prominent in my reasoning is that however Kasich gets the nomination, either through an "open" (aka, Brokered) convention or "contested" (aka, a floor fought) convention, trump's camp is full of "true believers" who make the "Bernie or Bust" crowd look like indecisive squishies.
revbones
(3,660 posts)Anything not 100% positive for Clinton is unreliable or simply a right-wing talking point.
Guess that's why BNR and other "media" outlets (propaganda sites owned by Hillar super-PAC) got so hyped up about her beating Trump with women. Or any of the other times they and her followers here have used those matchups...
The hypocrisy is hilarious.
ghostsinthemachine
(3,569 posts)Months.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Open convention, no SCOTUS vote. I think they really want POTUS.
noamnety
(20,234 posts)Which means whoever they pick, the dems have an opportunity to pick the candidate with the best chance of beating their pick.
(not that we will take the opportunity, just saying it exists)