Mr Gallup if Romney is ahead by 6 how can we have polls...

[WI_DEM]

that were just completed showing the race looking like this like this:

Nevada (Survey USA) Obama +3
Nevada (Rasmussen) Obama +3 (both released today)
New Hampshire (Rasmussen) Obama +1 (released today)
Connecticut (Siena) Obama +15 (released today)
Washington (Rasmussen) Obama +13 (released today)
Washington (Survey USA) Obama +14 (released last night)
Montana (Rasmussen) Romney +8 (only 8 in a red state!)
Iowa (We Ask America) Obama +3 (released yesterday)
Colorado (We Ask America) Romney +1 (released yesterday)

I don't know about you but if nationally Romney were really ahead by 6 I don't think Nevada and Iowa would be leaning towards Obama and Colorado would be giving better numbers than plus 1 for Romney and even blue states like CT & WA would be closer than those double digit leads.

Something smells.

[Andy Stanton]

1. Gallup's model

I'm no statistician but Gallup's model seems seriously out of whack.

[regnaD kciN]

8. The LV model is screwy, but can't explain away this...

...because Obama lost four points in their RVs as well.

We'll have to see how it plays out as the next few days go by. It's possible, for example, that Obama had some really bad days last Wednesday and Thursday. In any event, the first time Gallup will be all post-second debate will be their numbers released a week from today. If we're still down in their RV count by then, it'll be time to worry.

[Baitball Blogger]

2. Gallup, Gravis, ARG and Rasmussen.

They take turns to skew the results. That's what it looks like to me.

[madaboutharry]

3. Discussed here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021566610

Res ipsa loquitur

[Jennicut]

4. The simple answer is Romney would win like Obama in 2008.

And all the state polling would be wrong. All of it so far would be incorrect. Which means either all the state polls are wrong or Gallup is off. Gallup was off in 2010 as well.

[TexasCPA]

5. Gallup has seemed out of whack for years

The other tracking polls plus the state polls prove that. The momentum is back on Obama's side.

[HERVEPA]

6. Explained clearly below. Romney up (if poll even accurate) only where it doesn't matter.

.
Obama Romney Margin
.
East 52 48 O+4
.
Midwest 52 48 O+4
.
South 39 61 R+22
.
West 53 47 O+6

[regnaD kciN]

9. That still doesn't look right...

Only up by 4 in the Northeast? Considering we're winning there in high single- or double-digits in MA, CT, VT, NY, NJ, and MD, and probably are ahead in ME. DE, and RI as well, we'd have to be losing PA and NH by enormous margins to be only at +4.

[Maximumnegro]

10. Exactly. It's all bullsh*t. Don't matter anyway cause

Ohio.
Nevada.

Obama wins.

[ProSense]

11. The numbers are ridiculous.

Gallup had the President +14 in the East in 2008.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021551120

How do leads ranging from 8 points to 38 points produce +4?

A new CT poll has him up 15 point.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/1012CTPolRelease.pdf

[Blue Owl]

7. Gish Gallup

n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

12. The Gallup poll doesn't jibe with the state polling...

If Romney wins the popular vote by six points, he's not losing Ohio ... and it would be enough to probably flip a couple Democratic-lean states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and Pennsylvania ... which Obama leads in every poll in these states (large or narrow).

So, I don't believe it. I know we're supposed to take polls seriously, and to an extent I do, but there is just no evidence of this type of surge at the local level. Even if you factor in the narrowing of state polls, it still wouldn't amount to a +6 Romney victory. Yes, the south will play a role in skewing it, but the states that matter: Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, all continue to show Obama doing either respectable or well enough to win. Again, we're looking at a near-mathematical impossibility. If Romney is up plus-six, he would be winning those southern states by a wider margin than Bush in '04, who won the popular vote by 2.4 points. Take Georgia, Bush won that state by 17 points. He won Virginia by roughly 9 points, North Carolina by 12 and Florida by 5. There is no indication that Obama is doing as badly as Kerry in these states. In fact, he's polling better in all three of these states than Kerry was eight years ago. Include Texas, where Bush won by 23, a margin that will be narrower in November, and you can see where I'm going with this ... Obama is out-performing the last two Democratic nominees who lost the election and he's still losing by six points.

For that to mathematically be possible, he would need huge shifts all over the country ... from Ohio, to Wisconsin to Pennsylvania and other states Romney would be leading in that he's not.

If Bush had won the popular vote in 2004 by six, that would've been enough to flip Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota. That would've given Bush a 375-163 electoral win ... a EV landslide.

[Dawson Leery]

13. Gallup's own polling has Obama'a approval above his percentage of the vote.

Gallup is a bad poll.

[Doctor Jack]

14. Just a fluke

There was probably an outlier day in there somewhere that had Romney up by some insane amount. Maybe last friday? Republicans are all over 80 years old, so they are actually home when the rest of us are out on the town.

[McLeanVA2012]

15. not sure about the other states but

Here in Northern Virginia we are being inundated with Romney ads- by far the most thus far. I have family in Ohio and they say after months of mostly Obama ads, they too are seeing more of Romney. I am worried about my state because we were never true blue to begin with. If we go red, does Ohio go red also?

[AverageJoe90]

16. Not sure.

It could, but maybe not. Also, welcome to DU.

[Tree-Hugger]

17. Don't you worry

Obama will win Ohio.