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2016 Postmortem

JiminyJominy

(340 posts) Wed Oct 17, 2012, 10:34 AM Oct 2012

1

Ohio Polls

Question for people more familiar with polling.

Most Ohio polls show us up around 4-5 points right now.

Has the supposed 19% of the early voting electorate already been accounted for in these poll numbers (a 19% that apparently went very heavy Obama)?

OR

Have they not been accounted for which would mean that any current poll that shows a 4-5 point lead in reality is a 5-6 point lead because Obama is out to a head start?

10 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Ohio Polls (Original Post) JiminyJominy Oct 2012 OP

Yes, they count the 19 % of those who already voted. LisaL Oct 2012 #1

Is that 19% of registered voters or likely voters? Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #6

Since they already voted, I am pretty sure they are counted as LV. LisaL Oct 2012 #7

damn JiminyJominy Oct 2012 #2

Don't worry; President Obama will carry Ohio. GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #5

Let's make it a landslide! ffr Oct 2012 #3

Here is hoping the successful debate moves the needle and widens it boingboinh Oct 2012 #4

He will get it limousineliberal Oct 2012 #8

I agree and welcome to DU hrmjustin Oct 2012 #9

the Magic 3 JiminyJominy Oct 2012 #10

LisaL

(44,974 posts)

1. Yes, they count the 19 % of those who already voted.

Reply to JiminyJominy (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 10:37 AM

Oct 2012

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

6. Is that 19% of registered voters or likely voters?

Reply to LisaL (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 11:09 AM

Oct 2012

LisaL

(44,974 posts)

7. Since they already voted, I am pretty sure they are counted as LV.

Reply to Doctor Jack (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 11:10 AM

Oct 2012

JiminyJominy

(340 posts)

2. damn

Reply to JiminyJominy (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 10:40 AM

Oct 2012

GallopingGhost

(2,404 posts)

5. Don't worry; President Obama will carry Ohio.

Reply to JiminyJominy (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 10:46 AM

Oct 2012

Colorado and Iowa, too.

ffr

(22,672 posts)

3. Let's make it a landslide!

Reply to JiminyJominy (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 10:44 AM

Oct 2012

GOTV. Vote early. Get every Obama supporter to the polls early too.

Get everyone associated with D for Democrat elected.

boingboinh

(290 posts)

4. Here is hoping the successful debate moves the needle and widens it

Reply to JiminyJominy (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 10:45 AM

Oct 2012

limousineliberal

(55 posts)

8. He will get it

Reply to JiminyJominy (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 11:16 AM

Oct 2012

Obama will carry Ohio. Bank on that.

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

9. I agree and welcome to DU

Reply to limousineliberal (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 11:17 AM

Oct 2012

JiminyJominy

(340 posts)

10. the Magic 3

Reply to JiminyJominy (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 11:19 AM

Oct 2012

Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa/Nevada (one of them)

also known as "The Electoral Firewall"

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