2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538: Why Clinton Won Ohio After Losing Michigan
Exit poll results are coming back and telling us a bit more about why Clinton won in Ohio and not in Michigan her victory can be boiled down to her performance with white voters, older voters, and voters who are concerned about trade issues.
In Michigan, Sanders won white voters, but in Ohio, Clinton won them, 51 percent to 48 percent, and that seems to have made a difference. Her support with black voters in the state also remained strong she won them 68 percent to 30 percent but that was less an overwhelming win of the demographic than her record in other states.
Its well-known that Sanders performs well with young people there were fewer youths (ah, the youths) in Ohio. Sixty-two percent of Ohios electorate was 45 and older.
The last leg of the Clinton victory triangle is that she won on the all-important-in-the-Rust Belt trade question: Voters who said trade with other countries takes away U.S. jobs supported her, 53 percent to 46 percent. Sanders won that bloc in Michigan, 56 percent to 41 percent. Its not quite clear what happened in the intervening week our Andrew Flowers noted during the last Democratic debate that the Vermont senator seemed to be hammering the anti-NAFTA message less than usual, but it might also just be that Michigan was an aberration.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/
UMTerp01
(1,048 posts)As soon as I saw that the white vote was basically evenly split between Sanders and Clinton with the exit polls, I knew she was going to win Ohio because I knew he was going to continue polling poorly with Black voters.
Lucky Luciano
(11,264 posts)Without Kasich, a lot of those indies might have voted in the dem primary. Probably for Bernie - so Kasich took a lot of Bernie's white supporters. Just a theory.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)1) Ohio is more conservative than Michigan.
2) Ohio has done a much better job of diversifying into other areas other than industrial manufacturing than has Michigan.
Frustratedlady
(16,254 posts)Sorry, fellow Ohio'n DUrs. The count is probably legit, but that left a bad taste in my mouth when they manipulated the numbers. I will always believe that. The image of Bush sitting so confidently before the count came out is etched in my brain.
brooklynite
(94,792 posts)But I know, personally, the Chair of the Ohio Democratic Party.
I know, personally, a Congressman who lost in 2010.
NOBODY in Ohio involved in a political campaign believes that the voting machines have ever been rigged.
And even if you insist it happened, think about how a vote-rigging system developed by the Republicans can be controlled by the Democrats.